Wednesday, May 6, 2020

We Need Sports Things to Talk About, So Let's Gamble on Football (if there is football)


In the middle of a contract dispute with the Cowboys, surely nobody would bet on Dak Prescott to win the MVP, would they?
By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

While there are certainly more important things happening now than a lack of sports, crawling along in a sports-less desert has made many fans thirsty for ANYTHING to argue about.

Look no further than ESPN's documentary series "The Last Dance," chronicling Michael Jordan's final season (and really, entire career) with the Chicago Bulls. A documentary like this would normally be very popular anyway, but it has absolutely taken over the sports social media world, and drawn millions of viewers each week.

Similarly, the WNBA and NFL Draft both had their best years, in terms of viewership, in their history, and several notable players have mainstream news made waves by changing squads during NFL free agency (maybe you've heard of that Brady guy?).

The dust has not totally settled, but with the draft complete, and the NFL seemingly intent on playing games without interruption, now seems like a perfect time to start some more debates and look at a few NFL futures bets.

Odds for the Super Bowl, MVP and division winners have been updated, and you can find all that information here, along with other NFL related news. There will be more updates up until NFL starts so take the current odds with a grain of salt. For the sake of this blog, I'm going to take a look at my favorite, and least favorite picks to win divisions, and the MVP.

So, which bets are my Stone Cold Locks of The Quarantine? Find out below.



Best Divisional Bet: Miami +900 to win the AFC East

I mean, I don't know if I can really talk myself into saying the Dolphins actually will win the division, but you're giving me +900 in a wide-open division, where the other quarterbacks are Tom Brady Jarrett Stidham, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold.

Yes, I know the Dolphins are moving forward with either a rookie Tua Tagovailoa, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. But, Tua is one of the most talented and polished rookies to come out in the last decade, and, in spurts, Fitzpatrick has lived up to the name Fitzmagic, including last year in Foxboro, where he essentially ended the Brady-Belichick era by knocking off the Patriots, and forcing them to play on Wildcard Weekend.

Basically, Miami's quarterback situation isn't a slam dunk, but is it that much worse than the other three teams in this division? Is Brian Flores, who won in spite of a tank-ready roster last season, anything less than the second best coach in a division that features Adam Gase and Sean McDermott?

Again, I don't know, but at +900, and with the Pats (+120) and Bills (+130) both giving much lesser returns, I would happily take this bet and roll the dice.

Worst Divisional Bet: Indianapolis +135 to win the AFC South

Ok, riddle me this: How is reigning AFC South champion, and AFC conference finalist Tennessee at +165, while a Colts team that went 7-9, losing five of their last six, going for +135? Is it because they added Phil Rivers in free agency? Probably, as Jacoby Brissett was a serviceable, but less than explosive quarterback for Indy last season.

Still, am I really willing to bet that a 38-year old Phillip Rivers, coming off a 20 interception season where his team won just five games, is the answer? I'm gonna say no, and I can't see why anyone wouldn't take the better odds and bet on the reigning division champ, with more continuity, a better defense, and more exciting young weapons.

Best MVP Bet: Dak Prescott +1200

Look, the top three guys are clearly Patrick Mahomes (+380), reigning MVP Lamar Jackson (+600) and Russell Wilson (also +600), in some order. My problem with those three are- Mahomes, while the obvious favorite, gives you very little return on investment, and took a big step back, numbers-wise, from his first season starting to his second, for a variety of reasons.

While I love Lamar, you have to think defenses will have a better feel for him, both as a runner and a passer, in his second season starting for the Ravens. As for Wilson, I think he is annoyingly properly valued by Vegas, while continuing to be underrated by the average fan.

I want to be clear, I don't think any of those guys are bad bets, they're actually all pegged about right. But, I love Prescott's value at +1200. Here's a guy who will either be playing a new deal and happy, or playing on the franchise tag and looking to prove something, and his stud running back is coming off back-to-back years where he carried the ball over 300 times.

That likely means less touches for Ezekiel Elliot on the ground, and even more free reign to air it out for Prescott. Considering he nearly threw for 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, Dak's floor seems to be low, and with an even larger load of Dallas' offense to shoulder this season, his ceiling might just be as high as those three aforementioned favorites.

Again, this pick is about value, and with twice the return of the second-tier favorites, with about the same ceiling, Dak is my guy.


Worst MVP Bet: Drew Brees +1600

Nothing against Purdue legend Drew Brees (Boiler Up!!), but he just isn't a realistic MVP candidate at this point in his career, as he transitions to more of a game manager role. Don't believe me? The Saints were one of only four teams to run the ball over 400 times last year, and ranked 20th in the league in pass attempts. Now, if Drew is healthy, I would expect those numbers to change a bit, but the fact is, New Orleans is going to win by running the ball, and when they do throw, by getting it to All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas.

In fact, if any player in the Saints' passing game is poised to make an MVP run, it would be Thomas, who led the league in receptions and receiving yards last season, both by sizable margins. Just by the way his team is structured, and with so many other promising candidates getting better returns, Drew is, unfortunately, my least favorite MVP bet.

33 comments :

Linda james said...

They understand sports bettors… sports betting online helps you maximize your bottom line. sports betting online

Charles Null said...

You guys present there are performing an excellent job.
Online casino

Yeh Rishta Kya Kehlata Hai said...

Watch bigg boss 14 the biggest Indian drama show live on our website.
Bigg boss 14 full episodes will be transmitted in hd quality.

bigg boss 14 full episodes
bigg boss 14 watch online
bigg boss 14 all episodes
bigg boss 14 download
bigg boss 14 apne tv

Yeh Rishta Kya Kehlata Hai said...

Watch Bigg boss 14 live streaming on Bigg boss 14 full episodes.Biggboss14 full episdoes
will be telecasted live.Bigg boss 14 apne tv.Bigg boss 14 hd episodes will be telecasted live.



bigg boss 14 full episodes
bigg boss 14 all episodes
bigg boss 14 watch online
bigg boss 14 download
bigg boss 14 apne tv

Greene said...

On the online roulette it's rather interesting. Playing split in blackjack and which bets are pretty uncomplicated, no reason to estimate one thing considerably best online casino , find the technique to perform effectively.

Vijay TV Serials said...

Bigg Boss is a television reality show broadcast on Colors channel in India.

http://biggboss14hd.net/

Bigg Boss Season 14 Online

TamilDhool

dramacool said...

Awesome Buddy Thanks For Sharing This.IF You Need Indian Network Episodes Join Our Website Bigg Boss 14.
Bigg Boss Season 14 Online.

bigg boss 14 watch online
bigg boss 14 full episodes
bigg boss 14 all episodes
bigg boss 14 today episode

Hero Tower said...

Their cutting-edge solutions satisfied requirements top 10 agencies in the world, leading to a high-quality product and more work

junebet66 said...

Discovered this article is loaded with useful and accommodating substance, truly love to understand it. junebet66.com is one of the dependable sites where you can play live gambling club games online in Singapore. online betting in singapore

ab88forum.com said...

Great website and an interesting post which you have shared here. It is helpful for individuals who need this information. Thank you for your administration with us. Online Gaming Forum Community in Singapore

Dark Warmer said...

The public authority has attempted numerous activities on this front and a few prizes can be seen. Be that as it may, as IPL in cricket, we need fruitful homegrown expert rivalries for individuals to take up games other than cricket. Taking up games must be the provider for skilled athletes; really at that time Indian games will genuinely thrive and become top-notch.

Read more at:
Sports Pro kabaddi
https://www.starsportsprokabaddi.in

Unknown said...

They added value by offering up their industry insights when needed, showcasing their knowledge of client needs.
creative agencies

jhone than said...

eating disorders are of course sometimes deadly because it can cause the degeneration of one’s health,. poker online indonesia

Lauren Chevalier said...

The strengths are transparency, diligent project management and flexibility.
UI UX design companies

Anonymous said...

You actually make it look so easy with your performance but I find this matter to be actually something which I think I would never comprehend. It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me. I'm looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to get the hang of it! https://topuniversitieslist.com/national-sports-academy-vasil-levski/

Petter John said...

I’m trampled by your contents carry on the wonderful work.
UI UX design company

Aubrey Dickey said...

Hello, this is fastidious post I actually loved reading this.
UI agency

devil Manco said...

This is a good post. Thanks for sharing with us, Excellent work and i really appreciate to your work. Nfl football predictions.

Sophia khan said...

It’s really useful post for me. Very interesting, good job and thanks for sharing such a informative blog. If you want to get service for manipulated fixed matches. for more info visit our website.

Thomas miller said...

Wow this blog is awesome. Wish to see this much more like this. Thanks for sharing your information. your post is nice and very informative thanks for sharing keep it up. Fixed Match Agent.

BEST gambling said...

Armed with the right information, you will always have the edge over poker players who do not, regardless of what your cards are. This should be reassuring to those new to a card room. And, provided of course you take heed of the aforementioned suggestions. 꽁머니 커뮤니티

ROCK! said...

스포츠토토
토토사이트
먹튀검증

obviously like your website however you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very bothersome to tell the reality on the other hand I’ll certainly come back again.My page;

ROCK! said...

Terrific work! This is the kind of info that are supposed to be shared around the web.

Shame on Google for no longer positioning this submit higher!
Come on ove aand discuss with my weeb site .
Thank you =)

스포츠토토티비
스포츠중계
먹튀검증

excellentdue18 said...

I am very happy to read this. This is the kind of manual that needs to be given and not the accidental misinformation that’s at the other blogs. Appreciate your sharing this greatest doc. 토토커뮤니티

prediksiakurat said...

An impressive share, I merely with all this onto a colleague who was performing a little analysis on this. And hubby in fact bought me breakfast since I came across it for him.. smile. So well then, i’ll reword that: Thnx to the treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending time to debate this, I believe strongly about this and love reading more on this topic. If you can, as you grow expertise, might you mind updating your website with increased details? It truly is extremely useful for me. Large thumb up for this blog post! 텍사스홀덤

sportstototvcom said...

스포츠토토티비
스포츠중계


Great Article it its really informative and innovative keep us posted with new updates. its was really valuable. thanks a lot

sportstototvcom said...

토토365프로
스포츠토토
After going over a few of the blog posts on your web page,
I honestly like your way of writing a blog. I book-marked it to my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my
web site too and let me know how you feel.

prediksiakurat said...

I agree completely with what you said. Great Stuff. Keep it going.. 먹튀검증

EZ12bet said...

I prefer high-quality content, which I discovered in your article about singapore sports betting. The information you've provided is useful and important to us. Continue to post articles like these. Thank you very much.

Go Lagu said...

I dugg some of you post as I thought they were handy invaluable juara piala dunia

onlinegambling said...

Excellent job, this is great information which is shared by you. This info is meaningful and factual for us to increase our knowledge about it. about Singapore Casino Online Gambling So please always keep sharing this type of information.

Kanak Parihar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Warten Weg said...

Great stuff keep updating

South Africa Graphic Design
Forever Yena
Mzansi Magazine
Espere Camino