Suite Sports

Jordan's troll face

2012-04-25T17:28:00.002-07:00

ESPN: myESPN NBA: TrueHoop: HoopIdea: Michael Jordan: Bobcats not Tanking, by Henry Abbott

What's notable about this article is that Jordan never uses the phrase "not tanking" but is taking the route he must, saying this is a rebuilding year and team performance is a natural consequence of that. ESPN took 15 paragraphs to parse this confusing riddle.

D-Slice vs the U-Zone Layer

2012-04-06T15:12:00.000-07:00

For those of you who don't follow basketball, tonight's Raptors-Cavs game will feature two all-star starting point guards on 10-day contracts from the state of Texas:

Ben Uzoh (6-3, 205, b. 1988, University of Tulsa), the San Antonio ’06 High School Player of the Year, Texas Super Team Selection, All-State, All-City, 27-5A District MVP.

Donald Sloan (6-3, 205, b. 1988, Texas A&M), Texas Super Team Selection, 2X All-State, 9-5A District First Team.

These two heavyweights previously went head to head as college juniors at the South Padre Invitational (box score). The real star of that game was Tulsa's defense.

Sloan (who would lead the Aggies in scoring his the following year at 17.8 ppg and earn a first team All-Big 12 Conference selection) was the Aggies leading scorer but only scored 10 points. He only hit 2 of his 7 shots and his biggest contribution was getting to the line 8 times. He was a no-show on the rest of the stat sheet.

Uzoh also led his team in scoring, wasn't much better from the field (5 of 13), and lost the ball 6 times, but he murdered other parts of the box score, grabbing 9 rebounds and dishing 7 assists. Tulsa ran away with the victory, 67-56.

So who will be a winner tonight? The odds favor anyone who doesn't watch the game. The more important question is: With $4.2 billion dollars in revenue to spread around, why can't the NBA figure out how to make sure terrible basketball isn't being played?

While you weren't looking...

2012-03-25T21:36:00.002-07:00

I think the Spurs are the source of this because it's not the first time it happened.

However the star of this story is that I just noticed the addition of DND (did not dress) to box scores. I'm sure if I knew what fantasy basketball was, I might emphasize the importance of the new designation.

ESPN's bracket experts

2012-03-22T14:50:00.000-07:00

THE GOOD

Jay Bilas
Affiliation: ESPN
Experience: Former Player and Assistant Coach, Duke University
Bracket Status: 4-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 1-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and UNC (Sunday), 41-of-58 Correct Picks (71 percent), 88.8 percentile on ESPN.

As a former player and coach with Duke, Bilas unsurprisingly had placed the Blue Devils through to the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky in the South Region final.
Instead, with Duke losing to Lehigh and Xavier defeating Notre Dame in ND's first tournament game (a team Bilas had playing in the Round of 32), Bilas is hoping that Kentucky will defeat Baylor and run the table.

Seth Davis
Affiliation: Sports Illustrated
Experience: Writer, went from writing for Duke University's newspaper to writing for SI
Bracket Status: 4-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 0-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and Kansas (Sunday), 41-of-58 Correct Picks (52 percent)

What a shocker—writers don't necessarily have the upper hand at analytical mumbo-jumbo. Davis' bracket has been so apparently off-base that when he appeared on Turner Sports as an in-studio analyst, his co-anchors referred to his picks as the "kiss of death."

Jim Furyk (lolwut)

Affiliation: PGA
Experience: Golfer, PGA Tour Player of the Year, 2010; U.S. Open Winner, 2003
Bracket Status: 7-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 1-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and Kansas (Sunday), 41-of-58 Correct Picks (71 percent), 98.8 percentile on ESPN.

So if baseball brackets are better than basketball brackets, then a sport with even less constant activity should theoretically have the best bracket, right?
Enter Jim Furyk, a professional golfer who currently possesses a bracket that ranks in the 98.8 percentile on ESPN's Tournament Challenge and is even better than Bilas.
Furyk started out with a ho-hum South Region, correctly predicting every result from the Sweet 16 onward, save for Duke's appearance in that round.

Barack Obama

Affiliation: President of the United States of America
Experience: Politician: Senator from Illinois, US President
Bracket Status: 6-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 1-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and UNC (Sunday), 42-of-58 Correct Picks (72 percent), 98.4 percentile on ESPN.

After a dismal past two years—as far as bracketology is concerned—President Barack Obama's 2012 bracket is a rebound and a look back at his first bracket as President, when Obama chose UNC to win it all (and they did).

In the South, Obama fell like many others in selecting Duke to the Sweet 16, though he came back in the Elite Eight with a Kentucky versus Baylor showdown.
President Obama has Kentucky losing to UNC in the national championship game.

THE BAD

Dick Vitale

Affiliation: ESPN
Experience: Former Coach, Rutgers and University of Detroit (NCAA) & NBA
Bracket Status: 2-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 0-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and UNC (Sunday), 31-of-58 Correct Picks (53 percent), 9.4 percentile on ESPN.

As for Dick Vitale, the raspy-voiced broadcaster hopped aboard the Duke caravan, which knocked out his lower South Region. In the upper South, Vitale chose Kentucky to win it all, though giving too much credence to a Wichita State run to the Sweet 16 turned out to be an unwise move.

Michelle Beadle

Affiliation: ESPN
Experience: SportsNation
Bracket Status: 2-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 0-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Baylor and St. Mary's (Sunday), 32-of-60 Correct Picks (53 percent), 11.0 percentile on ESPN.

Michelle Beadle got her start as a reporter with the San Antonio Spurs thanks to her father, an oil industry executive, and for reasons that will become painfully obvious, the above photograph in which Beadle is blocked out by a podium is entirely appropriate for this "expert" bracket.
You don't want your face shown after landing yourself in the 11th percentile on your employer's website.
It starts off innocently enough, with Beadle making an aggressive pick in choosing Baylor to advance to the Final Four. She correctly foresaw the VCU upset, though she gave VCU too much credit and penciled them through to the Elite Eight, defeating Kentucky in the Sweet 16 to get there.

Andy Katz

Affiliation: ESPN
Experience: Career Sportswriter
Bracket Status: 5-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 1-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and UNC (Sunday), 33-of-58 Correct Picks (57 percent), 63.2 percentile on ESPN.

As a career sportswriter and one of ESPN's news-breakers, Andy Katz has built himself a respectable reputation and put together a respectable bracket.
In choosing powerhouses Kentucky and Baylor to face off in the Elite Eight, Katz made a selection in line with many experts' choices. With Kentucky slated to win his national championship game, Katz has a bracket whose end result is shared by many analysts.

Rajon Rondo

Affiliation: Boston Celtics, NBA
Experience: Player, Kentucky (NCAA) & NBA
Bracket Status: 3-of-8 Elite Eight Teams, 0-of-2 Final Four (Saturday), Kentucky and Kansas (Sunday), 28-of-58 Correct Picks (48 percent), 9.4 percentile on ESPN.

So we've seen how the media's "experts" have fared thus far, but how about some actual players—those who know the game firsthand?
Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo filled out a bracket of his own, though his results weren't all that great (by comparison, the Lakers' Pau Gasol also scored in the 9.4 percentile on ESPN.com).
Rondo's falling in the South came by way of Duke, whom he had picked to face Kentucky in the Elite Eight. To his credit, Rondo chose his alma mater (Kentucky) to win it all.

After Lin

2012-03-18T14:39:00.000-07:00

Yes, it's true: Linsanity is officially over for New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin.

Somewhere along the way, we all had to know it would end at some point. It was hard to imagine Lin continuing to put some of the greatest players in NBA history to shame.

But slow down, haters.

This isn't an anti-Lin piece coming for you. Because even with Linsanity proclaimed dead by many, the night he had against the Indiana Pacers on Saturday wasn't the mark of an over-hyped, fluke player.

Lin posted 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists while only turning the ball over twice.

Now, to understand why Linsanity being over is a good thing, you must understand the difference.

Linsanity was all hype in one historic dose. No player in NBA history rose to the kind of fame Lin did overnight and thus, the expectations on him were surreal.

After looking very human against the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, Lin proved he wasn't anywhere near ready for anything resembling that type of career.

At least not yet.

So now that all the hype and Linsanity is over, Lin can get back to playing basketball like any young player trying to make it in the Association. He'll have room to make mistakes like the rest of the NBA's developing point guards because all the madness has stopped.

If you're looking for who J-Lin should thank for lifting the weight, it's none other than Carmelo Anthony. The latest "Melo drama" that led to Coach D'Antoni's resignation took care of that on its own.

All of a sudden, Lin wasn't the biggest story on the Knicks anymore and he could just fade into the background.

The future is certainly bright for the young point guard. If Lin came up the normal way like most NBA players do (big school, draft pick, etc.), he would've been given a lot more time than most critics are giving him.

And furthermore, the type of numbers he put up in his first career starts would have made him a rookie sensation around the league. From that specific perspective, it stinks of double standard.

Neither firing the coach nor sitting Lin on the bench is better medicine for Jeremy Lin's career than Linsanity being over.

2012 NBA Power Poll 1.0

2012-02-28T17:49:00.009-08:00

By Jeremy Conlin

The All-Star break has come and gone. With the crazy scheduling, it was just too difficult to get a grasp on teams 15-20 games into the season, so I decided to wait until we had a full half-season sample before busting out my comprehensive review of each team. So here we go. All statistics are through Monday, February 27.

The Isiah Thomas Division

30. Charlotte Bobcats

Let's break down exactly how bad the Bobcats are - they're dead last in SRS¹, they're dead last in efficiency margin² , they don't have a single player with a PER over 15.5 (every other team in the league has at least two), they have one double-digit win and 19 double-digit losses. Their best player is D.J. Augustin, who, by my estimation, isn't even a top-15 player at his own position.³ Sooo, yeahhh....

29. Washington Wizards

Yeah, so they only have seven wins, but two of them are over Oklahoma City and Portland, so that has to count for something, right? Right?

28. Detroit Pistons

Umm, so Greg Monroe is having a pretty good season, I guess.

27. Sacramento Kings

The Jimmer/Tyreke Evans backcourt combo failed pretty spectacularly. Jimmer has gotten benched in favor of Isaiah Thomas, who was drafted 50 spots after him. Oomph.

You really can't win in today's NBA unless you have SOMEONE that can effectively run your offense (it doesn't really matter what position he plays - LeBron and Wade seem to do okay). Team defenses are too good. Unless you have a player that can get everyone in the right place and then create, your offense will fail. Evans is capable of turning into LeBron-Lite and just turning the game into a layup line, but he's hopeless at really doing anything other than attacking the basket, and he's not good enough to just get to the rim whenever he feels like it.

The Mike Dunleavy Division

26. New Jersey Nets

Deron Williams is finally playing well (or, at least closer to his own standard), but the rest of their roster is so laughably bad that it doesn't seem to matter. Still, I can't shake the feeling that a Dwight Howard trade is still in this team's future. The only problem is, it would be stupid to do it mid-season when they can just sign him outright or acquire him through a sign-and-trade this summer. If they trade for him now, they'll be better, and it will send them further down in the draft. Wouldn't it be better to hold off, grab someone like Jared Sullinger or Thomas Robinson in the draft, then pair him with Howard this summer? Right now they have the fourth-best odds to win the lottery, so the likelihood of them ending up with one of the top 4 bigs⁴ is exceedingly high. I'd suggest for them to wait.

25. New Orleans Hornets

Let's break down the Chris Paul trade, 33 games into the season:

1. They got Eric Gordon, who has played in two games for a total of 78 minutes, and is a restricted free agent this summer.
2. They got Chris Kaman, who sucks. No other way to put it.
3. They got an unprotected No. 1 from Minnesota, which turns out not to be that great, because Minnesota is actually good.
4. They got Al-Farouq Aminu, who has the potential to be a really good player, so long as you don't ask him to do anything that involves dribbling or shooting.

Who wants a do-over on that one?

24. Toronto Raptors

Andrea Bargnani was having his best season ever and became a legitimately effective offensive player, so naturally he gets hurt. He's no longer just a guy that puts up points because he takes a ton of shots for a bad team - he has a career high in True Shooting % thanks to a career-best foul rate. However, Ed Davis has regressed basically across the board (especially in offensive rebounding and turnovers), as has DeMar DeRozan. Right now, it seems like the only real keepers on this Toronto team are Bargnani and Calderon, but they aren't guys that can be anything more than fringe starters surrounding a superstar or two.

The Good Bad Teams

23. Phoenix Suns

#FreeSteveNash

22. Cleveland Cavaliers

It's hard to imagine a rookie point guard having a better season than Kyrie Irving is having – only Chris Paul in 2006 had a higher PER as a rookie.⁵ Cleveland has jumped from 29th in Offensive Efficiency last season to 22rd this season, and if the season ended today. Cleveland would be just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot.

21. Milwaukee Bucks

The law of 3rd-year point guards has given Brandon Jennings a bit of a leap, but still not enough to offset the suckitude of the rest of the team. Somehow this team gives Miami fits, which makes absolutely no sense to me, but I just accept it as a fact of life.

20. Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry's ankle injury really hampered them to start the season, but now he's back and playing as good (or better) than he ever has. His foul rate has dropped,⁶ which is a bit perplexing, but that could be explained by him playing more tentatively with the sore ankle. Otherwise, all of his other numbers are up (rebound, assist, and steal rates are all at or near career-highs), and he's scoring at incredible rates both as a screen-roll ballhandler and using off-ball screens (top 10 in scoring efficiency in each category).

Unfortunately, their defense is atrocious, possibly because of Mark Jackson's peculiar aversion to playing Andris Biedrins. Ekpe Udoh has played more minutes than Biedrins has this season, which is a bit peculiar because the only thing that Udoh does better than Biedrins is shoot free throws.

Nope.

19. Boston Celtics

Defensively, they're still elite – 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. Unfortunately, they labor to score because they're dreadful in several important offensive categories.

First, they're dead last in the league in offensive rebounding percentage,⁷ while also being a poor defensive rebounding team. They're also 3rd-worst in offensive turnover rate, while only being in the middle of the pack in forcing turnovers. This results in a disparity in the number of possessions, so it becomes almost a wash with their great defensive efficiency. They do a great job of limiting scoring on a per-possession basis, but they surrender so many extra possessions through turnovers and offensive rebounds that it ultimately doesn't matter.

The Western Fustercluck, Part I

18. Utah Jazz
17. Minnesota Timberwolves
16. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Denver Nuggets
14. Portland Trail Blazers

Don’t even ask me what’s going on here, because I have no idea. Utah looks good until you realize that nobody can shoot (dead last in 3PT%). Minnesota is just exceptionally mediocre across the board. So is Memphis. Denver looked like a potential #1 seed until half their team got injured, now they might not even make the playoffs. And Portland has had a ton of dumb luck in close games (they’re 18-16, but have the scoring differential of a 23-11 team).

What In Holy Hell Is Going On?

13. New York Knicks

I really don’t have anything to say here about Jeremy Lin that hasn’t already been said multiple times by countless people. What I am here to say, is that Tyson Chandler has been the 2nd-best center in the league this season, only nobody seems to notice or care. He’s currently 7th in the league among centers in Value Added,⁸ but defensively, he’s better than everyone above him save for Dwight Howard. The Knicks are 5th in the league in defensive efficiency – last season they were 22nd. They’re 4th in the league in defensive rebound rate⁹ – last season they were 26th. They’re 5th in the league in defending opponent’s isolation plays - last season they were 21st. If the season ended today, he would break the NBA record for True Shooting Percentage, and he’d break it by over 3%. Yet because the Knicks’ offense has been so bad (at least until Jeremy Lin showed up), people seem to just gloss over Chandler’s unbelievable season.

For The Love Of God, Please, Not Again

12. Atlanta Hawks
11. Orlando Magic

If these two teams meet in the playoffs again, I'm just going to kill myself. I'll have no other option.

The Bad Good Teams

10. Indiana Pacers

This is the classic team that does everything well, nothing poorly, and nothing spectacularly. They’re 13th in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency, 8th in efficiency differential, 8th in rebound rate, 11th in committing turnovers, and 7th in forcing turnovers. Even more than the next team, they’re the type of team that will succeed in the regular season but get run over in the postseason.

9. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly has cooled off considerably after their torrid start, but they’re still 3rd in the league in efficiency differential and 4th in SRS. They’re a team that will probably struggle in the playoffs (because their depth becomes less valuable when rotations shorten), but for some reason, they create insane matchup problems for Chicago. They beat them by 16 in the beginning of February, and even going back to last season, they took two out of three from Chicago, including a 12-point win in Chicago at the end of March. Similarly to Miami, they cover a lot of ground defensively, which allows them to force Derrick Rose towards the sidelines and keep him out of the middle of the floor where he’s most dangerous, and they attacked him in pick-and-rolls.

Furthermore, they barely ever turn the ball over, which limits transition opportunities. They turn the ball over on just 10.3% of possessions, first in the league. They’re so far ahead of everyone else in this category that there is a bigger gap between 1st and 2nd (San Antonio at 12.7%) than between 2nd place and 27th place (New Orleans at 15.0%). Any team that limits turnovers to that degree will be able to stay in games because they won’t have empty possessions.

The Western Fustercluck, Part II

8. Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe is still shooting nearly as much as Gasol and Bynum combined despite being the least efficient scorer of those three guys. I’m still waiting for an explanation for why it’s a good idea for Kobe to be shooting the ball at a rate higher than any season of his career other than 2006, while scoring less efficiently than he ever has in his entire career.

7. Houston Rockets

They started 3-7, they’ve gone 17-7 since. This is weird, considering Kevin Martin is having a season almost as bad as he did in 2010, when he was hurt all year and traded mid-season, and Luis Scola has taken steps back in just about every measurable category. Their depth, along with Kyle Lowry’s inspired play has kept them afloat, but Kevin Martin will need to play better (his career-worst foul rate is a primary culprit) if Houston wants to make the playoffs. Right now they appear safe, but once Denver gets healthy, they should make a strong push.

6. Los Angeles Clippers

Lob City has been as good as advertised – the Clippers are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency. However, they appear to have some serious flaws for when the playoffs role around. First of all, they aren’t good enough defensively, they rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, mostly because they do a poor job defending the three point line (6th-worst in the league in opponents 3PT%), their foul rate is terrible (3rd-worst in opponents FT/FGA), and they don’t force turnovers (6th-worst in opponents TOV%).

Matchup-wise, basically any elite Western team will give them fits because they don’t have a 2-guard with size to defend guys like Kobe, Kevin Martin, Ginobili, or James Harden. Any of those guys would simply eat the Clippers alive in a playoff series, which is why I’m not taking the Clippers particularly seriously.

5. Dallas Mavericks

If the Mavs win the West after effectively giving up on their title defense before it even started by dumping Tyson Chandler and fighting through Dirk’s worst season ever, and Rick Carlisle DOESN’T win the Coach of The Year Award, we should just give up and not hand out that award anymore.

4. San Antonio Spurs

They’re 6th in efficiency differential and scoring margin, but doing so while playing the 4th-hardest schedule and just 14 of 34 games at home. And they’re doing all of this without Manu Ginobili. When Ginobili gets healthy and their schedule gets easier, they become the only team that can really challenge the only Western team we haven’t covered yet for the #1 seed.

The Contending Contenders

3. Chicago Bulls

The numbers say that Chicago is just as good, if not better than Miami, but until the numbers lead to a result that’s any different than what we saw last May, Chicago is only 2nd-best in the East. They’re still way too predictable offensively to be taken seriously against any moderately good defensive team. Everything is built on top of a high screen with Rose and Noah or Rose and Boozer. They still don’t have anyone else that can create offense, and the same guy creating every shot is a model that has never worked.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

People that are saying the West is wide open aren’t in touch with reality. People who are saying OKC needs another scorer aren’t in touch with reality. Their foul rate is incredible; they take .278 free throws for every field goal attempt. To put that in context, the next-highest team is Miami (with .26 FT/FGA), and the 8th-place team, Cleveland (.221), is closer to last (Philly at .165) than they are to first. And when they get to the foul line, they make them at a league-best clip (79.6%).

As a result, they’re 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Miami. When Westbrook, Harden, and Durant are on the floor together, their offensive efficiency spikes even higher – the 5-man unit of Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Ibaka, and Collison scores over 130 points per 100 possessions. No unit with over 50 minutes of floor time together this season even approaches that number.

Don’t let anyone tell you differently, there’s a clear favorite to come out of the Western Conference. It will be an enormous upset if anyone else in the West beats the Thunder this spring.

The Prohibitive Favorite

1. Miami Heat

Were you expecting someone else?

Footnotes:

1. A combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule.
2. Net points per 100 possessions.
3. Paul, Rose, Williams, Nash, Westbrook, Rondo, Lawson, Lowry, Parker, Irving, Lin, Rubio, Jennings, Holiday, Curry, and Wall are all better.
4. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Robinson, Sullinger.
5. 22.1 for Paul, 20.7 for Irving.
6. 3.3 FTA per 36 minutes last year, just 2.5 FTA/36 this year.
7. Percentage of their own missed shots they rebound.
8. Based on PER and adjusted for minutes played – for example, Tim Duncan has a higher PER than Chandler does, but Chandler’s VA is higher because he’s played nearly 300 more minutes over the course of the season.
9. Percentage of available defensive rebounds they grab.

2012-02-27T23:49:00.010-08:00

Click to move¹

Click does nothing²

Just rollover³

Click popup⁴

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click or rollover ⁵

click or rollover⁶

1. footnote here

test

2012-02-27T21:18:00.009-08:00

Click to move¹

1. footnote here

Speaking of the Salary Cap

2012-02-22T14:24:00.000-08:00

Considering the huge gap between what Cortland Finnegan wants from the Tennessee Titans and what they're willing to give him, it looks like the cornerback could hit the open market in March.

While it seems attractive for the Lions to add him, considering all the other members of the Titans defense they've acquired over the years, it doesn't look like they'll get Finnegan this year.

Though Tennessee is in extremely good shape in terms of the cap, they're not interested in franchising Finnegan, which would cost nearly $11 million in 2012.

They also don't seem to be willing—yet, at least—to give him what he reportedly wants, which is a deal exceeding that of the Houston Texans' Johnathan Joseph, who got a five-year, $48.75 million deal last summer.

Considering those are the numbers we're looking at for Finnegan and the fact that the Lions are pressed right up against the cap (and reportedly borrowed against this year's cap last year), there's little chance Finnegan ends up in Detroit, even if he does leave the Titans.

Easily, the Chicago Bears have the most cap space to work with this offseason, with potentially as much as $28 million available to them, depending on whether they want to carry over their unused dollars from 2011.

Chicago is thus free to spend at will, though it's unknown whether that's what they are interested in doing in the coming months. Their first priority, of course, is signing running back Matt Forte to a new deal, or barring that, giving him the franchise tag.

They are likely to use some of that money on a veteran wide receiver, though I don't see Chicago in play in the Mike Wallace sweepstakes that is a seeming inevitability considering the Pittsburgh Steelers' cap situation.

The Detroit Lions are hurting the most in terms of cap space; it's looking, at the moment, like they have at most $2 million worth of cap room to work with. However, that doesn't take into account the undetermined amount they borrowed against this year's money in 2011.

Easily, the Chicago Bears have the most cap space to work with this offseason, with potentially as much as $28 million available to them, depending on whether they want to carry over their unused dollars from 2011.

Chicago is thus free to spend at will, though it's unknown whether that's what they are interested in doing in the coming months. Their first priority, of course, is signing running back Matt Forte to a new deal, or barring that, giving him the franchise tag.

They are likely to use some of that money on a veteran wide receiver, though I don't see Chicago in play in the Mike Wallace sweepstakes that is a seeming inevitability considering the Pittsburgh Steelers' cap situation.

The Detroit Lions are hurting the most in terms of cap space; it's looking, at the moment, like they have at most $2 million worth of cap room to work with. However, that doesn't take into account the undetermined amount they borrowed against this year's money in 2011.

It's doubtful that the Packers are going to part ways with Jermichael Finley entirely, though it's unclear just yet if he will end up with the franchise tag ($5.4 million in 2012 for a tight end, though Finley could negotiate a higher sum) or if they will successfully sign him to a long term deal.

Considering all of the receiving talent the Packers have, there is a valid argument for letting Finley go. However, tight ends of his type are hardly a dime-a-dozen, and the kind of threat he provides the team is certainly worth at least $6 million or more in 2012 and beyond.

It's very true the Packers need help on defense, both in the pass-rush and in the secondary. The former might be a useful free-agency target, but Green Bay would be far better served to focus on defensive backs in the draft.

When free-agent corners and safeties are allowed to walk away, that's a sign that their best playing days are behind them. The Packers need youth in the secondary, as well as talent, so I don't see that being an area they'll target in free agency.

In contrast, there are a number of free-agent defensive ends and inside and outside linebackers who could benefit the Packers. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked one up, but that will have to be at the right price, and the right price will have to fit in with their financial plans for Finley.

Hockey Day

2012-02-13T14:28:00.000-08:00

February 19th is Hockey Day and with everything that is going in the world of sports, it is finally nice to sit back and not read another story about Jeremy Lin.

Nothing puts a bigger smile on my face than being able to sleep in on Sunday and awake to the voice of Mike Emrick on NBC commentating on a game.

The game of hockey is something that is special, and is so much more than a sport: it's a lifestyle. It's a lifestyle that includes the pains of waking up at 5 AM and having to shovel a foot of snow off your car that will barely start so you can make it to a morning practice.

It's a lifestyle that includes the pains of missing a night out at the bar with your girl because you have to drive across the state to make a 10 PM conference game.

But would we ever change it? Absolutely not. Because the benefits of playing this beautiful game are endless.

The locker room stories, the dangles, the Gino's, the roadies, sauce, flow, flop... it all combines to make something that makes every player feel something that is so much bigger than themselves.

Hockey teams aren't teams, they're families. You will never find a closer group of guys than those who lace them up together every night. Whether it's a men's league team, a junior team, a college team, or a pro team, the bond that is formed by this game is something that can never be duplicated.

So whether you're 80 years old or 20 years old and have ever laced up the skates, this day is for you.

This is a quote that has been floating around the web for a while and may unfortunately have started as a quote about wrestling fans but nonetheless:

    The cockiest, dirtiest, most irresponsible group of athletes in the world. We'll do anything and come back to tell his teammates about it. Live the dream until they are 35 then realize they never made it. Ladies love us, guys want to be us, we are the soul of the universe.

    You lace up the skates, put on the gloves, strap on the helmet, and walk on to the ice and nothing else matters. It doesn't matter that you failed a test, your girl is giving you problems, or that you got a ticket on the way there...your world is absolutely perfect for the next couple hours.

    Here's to faceoffs, goals, assists, overtime, livin' on the road, cold rinks, early mornings, breakaways, goin' top shelf, countless hours of practice, bag skates, thousands of dollars, dangling d-men, big hits, broken twigs, new skates, packin' bombs, wheelin' broads, coaches, adding the letter "y" to the end of everyone's last name, pick up, fights, let downs, miracles and most of all—the game. Hockey.

    Why? Why do we skate back and forth night after night? Skating so hard we throw up. Skating so hard your heart beat rings in your head, while your lungs are grasping for air. Late nights, early mornings, Friday nights, Saturday evenings, broken bones, torn muscles and deep bruises. We skate through it all. Because we live off our adrenaline, because the game frees your spirit, because the party in the locker room is fine, because you're invincible once you step on the ice, because a shot can make you smile all night, sniping the twine, the rattling of the boards, the feel of the puck, and skates carving into the ice is a rhythm to live by, because its possible to skate fast enough to leave all your worries behind. Sweat is the cologne of our accomplishment. Why? Why would I push myself so hard? It's not for the money, it's not for the girls, and it's not for the fame. I do it because I love it."

So to everyone I've ever had the pleasure of lacing the skates up with... Cheers.

Super Bowl in review

2012-02-06T14:38:00.000-08:00

Why did the Giants win the game?

The Giants won this game because of their hands. Wide receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham caught practically everything Eli Manning threw their way, and most were difficult catches. Tight ends Jake Ballard and Bear Pascoe were also flawless.

But the biggest plays were the fumble recoveries of Chris Snee and Henry Hynoski, who covered fumbles by Bradshaw and Nicks.

Defensively, the Giants recorded seven passes defended, including two by Jason Pierre-Paul, who knocked down two Tom Brady passes at the line of scrimmage. But the biggest play by a Giants defender was Chase Blackburn’s interception of Brady’s long pass to Rob Gronkowski.

On the other side, dropped passes by Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez helped the Giants' cause as well.

Did Ahmad Bradshaw do anything wrong scoring a touchdown instead of running the clock down?

Pity poor Bradshaw. He became the first player in Super Bowl history to score a touchdown and feel bad about it. Obviously, Bradshaw was surprised to see such an easy path through the Patriots' defense, and he hesitated before falling backwards into the end zone. I’ve seen DeSean Jackson do it a lot better, however.

Anyway, the score meant the Giants couldn’t run the clock down and kick the game-winning field goal as time expired, but as many things could go wrong in that scenario as could go right so running down the clock is always overrated (see next question).

Were the Giants concerned about a short field goal attempt going awry?

Maybe they were, their pathetic attempt at converting the two-point conversion left them with a four-point lead, meaning the Pats only needed a touchdown to win, whereas a successful two-point conversion necessitated a Patriots score and an extra point for the win.

If the Giants thought that Lawrence Tynes might miss a field goal from extra point distance, then they should have tried a little harder to convert the two-point attempt and force the Pats to kick the extra point, which they possibly, but not likely, could have missed.

It just seems the Giants didn’t consider the contingency of making New England convert the extra point to win the game.

Is Eli Manning now in Tom Brady’s class?

I don't know what that means, but yeah.

Will the circumstances of the Giants' “12 men on the field” penalty result in a possible change in the rules?

New York was penalized five yards, while the Patriots lost valuable time on their final drive. The NFL will have to review this. The Giants may have unknowingly stumbled upon an effective strategy to combat the two-minute offense. Or maybe they knew what they were doing.

Either way, it’s a situation that needs addressing. A possible solution: Give the offense the option of declining the penalty and having time put back on the clock.

What’s with Wes Welker’s mustache?

I’m not sure, but he needs to drop it.

NBC’s Dan Patrick interviewed Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham after the Lombardi Trophy presentation. Was this the least informative interview of the night?

Yes, it wasn’t very informative, but it was a necessary interview. Obviously Nicks and Manningham played pivotal roles in the game. They combined for 15 catches, and an equal number of utterances of the word “man” during the interview.

What was the lasting image from Super Bowl XLVI?

It’s a tie, between Tom Coughlin embracing Bill Belichick after the game, and Coughlin embracing Flavor Flav after the game.

Tom Brady’s wife, supermodel Gisele Bundchen, ripped the Patriots' receiving corps for dropping too many balls. Does Brady need to have a talk with his wife about boundaries?

No, Brady doesn’t need to have a talk with Bundchen, but Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson does, and he needs to tell her to “know her role and shut her mouth.”

Ironically, people tell Brady all the time that the world’s most famous supermodel was “quite a catch.”

Aside from three or four pivotal catches, what were the Patriots lacking on Sunday?

What New England needed was a wide receiver who is a true deep threat. New England receivers make all their catches in front of defenders. They need a receiver who can get behind a defense. The current Pats offense can spread a defense, but can’t stretch one.

AND NOW REAL SERIOUS BUSINESS:

How was Madonna’s halftime show?

I give it two thumbs up. That’s three fingers up if you count M.I.A.’s middle one.

All controversy aside, Madonna’s set was interesting for its pageantry, aesthetics and choreography. Any spectacle featuring an afro’d tightrope performer in a toga and gold sneakers can’t go wrong.

But did Madonna really need special guests to feel relevant? In addition to M.I.A., Madonna welcomed LMFAO, Nicki Minaj, and Cee Lo Green, a.k.a. the “Black Butterbean.” She had fewer guests in her book “Sex.” Besides, the average viewer probably couldn’t tell the difference between a “special guest” and a routine performer.

Speaking of “going wrong,” was M.I.A.’s middle finger that big of a deal?

It shouldn’t be. Most viewers probably didn’t even notice it. And if they did, they didn’t care.

If the NFL tabbed M.I.A. to appear in the halftime show without expecting some form of controversy, then they obviously don’t know who M.I.A. is. A middle finger by NFL standards may be controversial, but by M.I.A. standards it’s quite tame.

This is the same politically-active and outspoken M.I.A. whose most famous song, “Paper Planes,” features gunshots in the chorus, and the same M.I.A. whose video/short film for “Born Free” involves genocidal death squads hunting down red-haired people.

M.I.A. claimed “adrenaline and nerves” caused her to raise her middle finger. Bull. It was premeditated. It would be unlike M.I.A. to appear at the Super Bowl and not do something controversial.

Was that Clint Eastwood narrating the Chrysler ad touting Detroit’s revival?

Indeed it was Eastwood, but Clint couldn’t quite decide which character he was playing—Dirty Harry Callahan or Walt Kowalski from Gran Torino.

But give Eastwood credit where credit is due for giving meaning and soul to the Chrysler ad. Let’s face it—Eastwood could narrate nursery rhymes, or Nicholas Sparks’ novels, and make them sound badass.

What was the night’s best commercial?

I’ll give it to M&M’s for humor and creativity, and for flaunting the nudity angle in the NFL’s face. I’ll take a naked M&M any day over a naked Janet Jackson.

Will anyone drink Bud Light Platinum?

No, because judging by the effectiveness of Bud Light Platinum’s ad campaign, potential consumers won’t know it exists.

Did a platform-boot-wearing Elton John end up in a dungeon with Flavor Flav?

Yes, and Sir Elton couldn’t be happier. Flav, however, will find it necessary to “Fight The Power.”

Can Audi’s LED headlights really make vampires vanish?

If so, then all new Audi owners should drive to the set of the filming of the new Twilight movie.

Has anyone ever watched a GoDaddy.com commercial, then actually visited their website to view the “unrated content?”

No. I don’t know about you, but when I visit a website, I expect the content to be rated, preferably with a letter as far down the alphabet as possible. There’s a name for a GoDaddy.com ad that runs during the Super Bowl: the “two-team teaser.”

The NFL's Suite Stars

2012-01-25T10:55:00.000-08:00

By Joe Parello

Since we have an entire extra week to discuss what looks to be an exciting Super Bowl, let's do what the NFL does and honor the best football players on the planet this week. But, there will be no SuiteSports Pro Bowl(though, if there was, it would be a 7-on-7 flag game). Instead, I will be honoring only the total cream of the NFL crop, not a team for each conference. Also, for this incredibly subjective All-star team, I have considered playoff performances, and added two "Wild Card" positions to each side of the ball.

Sound like fun? Of course it does.

Offense

QB
1. Tom Brady, New England
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
3. Eli Manning, New York Giants

It would be hard to argue against a host of quarterbacks this season, but these are the three I settled on. Brady gets the start over Rodgers since he did more with less offensively this year, and he was able to get the Patriots back to the Super Bowl. Rodgers was fantastic all season, and would have joined Brady, Manning and Stafford in the 5,000 yard club had he not missed a few fourth quarters due to Packers blowout. Finally, Manning sneaks in at third string over Drew Brees because of his fantastic play down the stretch, as well as in the playoffs.
RB
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore
3. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia

Jones-Drew led the league in rushing, and is always a lethal receiver. Simply put, he is the most complete back in football. It's unfortunate he is on such a bland offense, otherwise Jone-Drew could have had an even scarier year. Rice finished second in rushing, and is also a complete player. The only thing holding back the Ravens back seemed to be Baltimore's play calling, where offensive coordinator Cam Cameron seemed to forget Rice was on the team at times. McCoy gets the final spot over Michael Turner, who had the least impressive 1,340 yard rushing season ever, and Arian Foster. Foster had a great year as well, but did it behind a better line and on a team committed to running the ball. McCoy also took the title of most exciting running back in the NFL from Chris Johnson this season.
WR
1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit
2. Victor Cruz, New York Giants
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
4. Steve Smith, Carolina
5. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh

The first thing you will notice is that Wes Welker is not on this list. Nothing against the diminutive wideout, but he just was not the matchup problem any of these guys were, and Brady fed him the rock inside while defenses were worried about the Patriot tight ends(more on that later). Johnson is THE big play receiver in football right now, and even two defenders isn't enough to stop this guy going down the field. Cruz had a breakout year, and helped Eli Manning and the offense pull through some hard times at mid-season. Fitzgerald was the lone bright spot in Arizona, and Smith showed us that he is still explosive, assuming he has a quarterback that can get him the ball. Wallace was simply a vertical threat last year, but he took his game to a new level this season as a route runner and a run after the catch receiver. An injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the emergence of Antonio Brown on the other side slowed his production a bit, but the speedster had a bright future.
TE
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England
2. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans
3. Aaron Hernandez, New England

Yes, this is how good the New England tight end corps is. Gronkowski was an absolute monster this year, grabbing 90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns, an unprecedented tight end stat line. Graham was nearly as impressive in New Orleans, also surpassing 1,300 yards receiving. The final spot goes to Hernandez over impressive years from Jason Witten and Tony Gonzales because he put up comparable numbers with far fewer targets per game and missed some time.
OT
1. Joe Thomas, Cleveland
2. Joe Staley, San Francisco
3. Jake Long, Miami

It is really weird to me that Cleveland and Miami have the two most complete tackles in the NFL, but it is true. As for the one that played on a good team, Staley, he came into this year as a long, athletic pass protector. He left the year as a brutal run blocker that could protect well enough on play-action passes. He is just one of many 49ers players that either broke out, or were rejuvenated due to the arrival of new coach Jim Harbaugh.
OG
1. Ben Grubbs, Baltimore
2. Jahri Evans, New Orleans
3. Logan Mankins, New England

With these three guards you get each end of the spectrum, and one in the middle. Grubbs is a bulldozer in the running game, and Evans is a nimble pass blocker that is athletic enough to pull around on draws and screen passes. In the middle is Mankins, who can do it all, just not at as high of a level as the first two.
C
1. Nick Mangold, New York Jets
2. Ryan Kalil, Carolina

Mangold is still the game's best center, despite the Jets' struggles on offense this year. Kalil is the opposite, a young up-and-comer that was the versatile anchor of a suddenly exciting offense in Carolina.
O Wild Card
1. Cam Newton, Carolina
2. Tim Tebow, Denver

Ok, I know Arian Foster, Wes Welker and perhaps even Jason Witten are more deserving. That being said, these were the two most interesting and polarizing players in the league, and they each have unique skill sets that would allow me to use them all over the field. Can you imagine if my team rolled out a lineup of Rodgers in the shotgun, Johnson and Wallace out wide, Gronkowski a tight end, Newton in the slot and Tebow at H-back? How would you defend that. There is so much speed and power on the field, along with three guys that can throw. I want to see that formation.

Defense

DE
1.Jared Allen, Minnesota
2. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants
3. Chris Long, St. Louis

While the Vikings struggled as a whole, Allen made sure their opponents knew they were in a fight each week. The bull-rusher led the league in sacks, and is as physical an end as there is in football today. Pierre-Paul and Long get the nod over Jason Babin because they are both better against the run, and each is a double-digit sack performer. Also, Long is immovable at the point of attack and did an amazing job of fighting double-teams all year on a beaten up defense.
DT
1. Justin Smith, San Francisco
2. Geno Atkins, Cincinnati
3. Vince Wilfork, New England

Smith has been overlooked for the majority of his career, but he was absolutely beastly this year. He led the league's best run defense at tackle, but also led all DT's in sacks with 7.5. Atkins helped turn the Bengals defense back into what it was in 2009, and was also a pass rush threat on the inside. Wilfork is the league's ideal 3-4 nose tackle, but was even dominant playing out of position as a "3" technique in New England's new 4-3. He didn't complain about it either. Note how a truly great defensive lineman handles that situation, Albert Haynesworth.
OLB
1. Terrell Suggs, Baltimore
2. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas
3. Tamba Hali, Kansas City

It is certainly a new era when all of the best outside linebackers in the league are known for being pass rushers. But, thanks to Lawrence Taylor, Dick LeBeau and rule changes that have geared the game towards passing, this is where we are. Ware is a pure pass rusher, and was lethal off the edge again this year. But, Suggs and Hali were complete players, staying firm against the run and making plays in pass coverage.
ILB
1. Patrick Willis, San Francisco
2. London Fletcher, Washington
3. Derrick Johnson, Kansas City

Willis missed some time this year, but you would be hard pressed to find anybody around the league that thinks there is a better inside linebacker. Fletcher is another guy that has been overlooked recently, but the savvy veteran is an absolute tackling machine that is still making plays on a salty Redskins defense that was hung out to dry by its offense all too often. Johnson, along with Hali, shows that there is hope for defense in KC. Both were great this year against the run and pass, and the return of Eric Berry to the Chiefs' secondary should make an already good defense really fun to watch next year.
CB
1. Darelle Revis, New York Jets
2. Jonathan Joseph, Houston
3. Champ Bailey, Denver

While teams actually challenged him this season, Revis proved he is still the best cover corner in the NFL today. Joseph came to Houston from Cincinnati hoping to help repair a historically bad pass defense. No one could have anticipated that he, and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, would help make the Texans one of the league's best defensive units, even without All-Pro Mario Williams. Bailey gets the final spot over Pittsburgh's Ike Taylor. Until the playoffs Taylor had the inside track to the team, but after he was absolutely abused by Denver's Demaryius Thomas and Bailey played well against both Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, the veteran earned the nod.
S
1. Ed Reed, Baltimore
2. Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh
3. Eric Weddle, San Diego

Reed and Polamalu are still the class of the league, for entirely different reasons. Reed is the ultimate free safety, roaming the field looking to make plays against ill-advised throws. Polamalu is the ultimate strong safety, playing up in the box against the run, playing man coverage on tight ends and slot receivers, rushing the passer, and only occasionally dropping back deep. Weddle gets the final spot for being the one bright spot on a disappointing Chargers defense. Weddle led all safeties in tackles, and also grabbed seven interceptions.
D. Wild Card
1. Haloti Ngata, Baltimore
2. James Harrison, Pittsburgh
These two would each add a bunch of toughness, but really get in because they are two of the top-five or six defensive players in the league. Ngata gets in here because he doesn't fit into one spot on the defensive line. He can play the nose, DT in a 4-3, and DE in a 3-4. His versatility actually hurt him in terms of fitting into one spot up top, but Ngata is the most complete defensive lineman in football today. Harrison, on the other hand, missed multiple games due to injury, and one game due to a league imposed suspension for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Browns quarterback Colt McCoy. Despite that, Harrison still finished with nine sacks, and single-handedly brought the Steelers defense back from the brink in the middle of the year. Less production due to missed time, but he is still the most complete outside linebacker in the league.
Special Teams

K
David Akers, San Francisco
P
Andy Lee, San Francisco
KR
1. Patrick Peterson, Arizona
2. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh

Akers broke a 49ers record for points scored in a season held by Jerry Rice. That's right David Akers is now better than Jerry Rice. Just kidding, of course, but Akers nailed 44 field goals this year, mostly due to the 49ers' struggles in the red zone. Lee rounds out the league's best special teams unit by leading the league in punting. That San Fran duo beat out fellow Bay Area bombers Shane Lechler and Sebastian Janikowski from Oakland. Patrick Peterson led all returners with four touchdowns, and Brown was the most complete returner in the league, bringing back kickoff and punts with equal efficiency.

Coaches

Offensive Coordinator

Sean Payton, New Orleans

Defensive Coordinator

Wade Phillips, Houston

Head Coach

Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco

First of all, I know Sean Payton is a head coach. That said, he still called the majority of the plays for the league's top offense. That gets him in for me. Phillips helped the Texans go from 30th in total defense to second, and dead last in pass defense to third, all in one year. Not a bad hire, I would say. Finally, Harbaugh took an underachieving 49ers team led by a bust quarterback, and got them to within a special teams fumble of the Super Bowl.

Haywire - Yeah, Not So Much

2012-01-24T10:00:00.000-08:00

The bitter-cold, Boston winter brings about one good thing; I now have a valid excuse to spend all day on Saturdays at the movie theater. I feel less lazy about sitting in front of a screen all day if it is in a dark theater rather than my couch. I think that has something to do with the fact that I join society for several hours instead of being a hermit. Usually, I even enjoy the crappy movies, but this past weekend even Channing Tatum's good looks could not salvage Haywire.

I'm honestly not sure how this movie is getting such good reviews. If you just looks at the names involved with it then , sure, it should be fantastic. Soderbergh directing, Michael Douglas, Antonio Banderas, Ewan McGregor, Channing Tatum, Gina Carano....sounds like a recipe for a lot of fun, right? WRONG.

The plot is shotty at best. It is hard to follow and, yet, completely predictable. It's your regular government-turns-on female-heroine-while-completely-underestimating-how-bad-ass-she-is movie. And I'm really not giving anything away here. You get all that in the trailer. Carano's acting is lacking. It seems forced at all times. Her being romantically involved with any character was just unbelievable. It was constantly awkward.

Also, she walks really funny. It bothered me the entire movie. And that is mainly because there were long, drawn-out scenes of her walking. For no reason. Did someone think "Oh, we should stretch this out for three or four minutes and Gina can just walk around in that hoodie for a while. People will love it"? No, we didn't love it. It made me sit there for three or four minutes trying to figure out why she walked like that. Are her legs a little short? Is it that she's too muscular? I never got it. Oh well.

I will say, her fight scenes are fantastic. Seeing as she was an MMA fighter for all those years, I would expect nothing less. Obviously, she did all her own stunts. The backflips off of walls are pretty great. That was one enjoyable thing. Also, I loved Michael Douglas. How can you not? But that was all that I liked about the movie.

There were a couple little things that really pissed me off too. The main one being that, at one point, they show Carano with corn rows in her hair, supposedly this is just a couple hours after they show her with her hair down. Everybody knows that corn rows are incredibly time consuming. There is no way that she had time, #1, to get that done or, #2, to do them on her own. Sorry, not possible. Then she lets her hair down again and a little bit later it's back in the corn rows. I call B.S.

You may be thinking "Who cares about corn rows? Get over it, Heidi," but there is a point there. The plot was so bad that I spent at least 10 minutes mulling the corn row situation over in my head and I still did not miss anything in the movie. Actually, I think my brain welcomed the distraction.

One other thing also pissed me off. This is for the girls. Channing Tatum remains fully clothed the entire movie. Now hear me, Tatum is not a bad actor, but he's not an incredible one either. He is, however, very attractive. If you put him in a movie, women are going to go see it and they want to see him shirtless for at least 30 seconds. I do not think that is too much to ask. Sex sells, folks, especially if Channing Tatum is having it. But, alas, there was no sex in this movie.

I said earlier that Haywire got some good reviews, and it really has. I am baffled by this. The action scenes were decent but everything else was terrible. I would tell you to decide for yourself but wait until it hits Redbox or Netflix because it's not worth spending the cash to see it in a theater. Unless you have a Groupon like I did.

Check back here next week for more reviews!

Not-So-Power Forwards

2012-01-20T11:55:00.000-08:00

When you think of the old-school NBA Power Forward, you probably think of a dude that's tough, rugged, defense-rebounding type player. The dude that would lay a guy out if he went to the rim, the guy that protected the rim as if his life depended on it. You think of a dude like Charles Oakley or Horace Grant.

But I'm not talking about that dude.

When you think of the new-school NBA Power Forward, you probably think of a dude that cares less about defense and rebounding than he does throwing down hellacious dunks. He wants to run the pick-and-roll and turn himself into a runaway freight train coming down the key towards the rim. Other times he'll step out to keep the defense honest. Regardless, he's a nearly unguardable, all-around offensive force. You think of a dude like Amar'e Stoudemire or Chris Bosh.

But I'm not talking about that dude.

When you think of some of the great NBA Power Forwards, you think of a guy that blends both of those models. They're capable of dominating a game on both ends. If they aren't quarterbacking their team's defense, at the very least they're owning the defensive glass, starting the break with a crisp outlet pass, and maybe even finishing the break on the other end. You think of a dude like Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Charles Barkley, or Karl Malone.

But I'm not talking about that dude either.

I'm talking about a brand new wave of NBA Power Forwards. They're playing the position in a way that really hasn't been played before. And the craziest part? They aren't even power forwards.

Thaddeus Young, Danilo Gallinari, and Gerald Wallace all play significant minutes at power forward for the second units of top-10 teams, despite the fact that none of them seem to be natural power forwards. Gallinari and Wallace are almost certainly small forwards, and Young probably doesn't have a true position. Yet according to the positional breakdowns on www.82games.com (stats only through January 18th), Gallinari and Wallace have played close to 20% of the minutes at power forward for their respective teams this year, while Young has played over 50% of Philly's power forward minutes.

These minutes represent some of the biggest reasons why each of these players' respective teams are so successful. So far this season, teams that have gone small with their second unit have been blowing opponents out of the water. Philly, Denver, and Portland are just the tip of the iceberg - teams like Miami (playing LeBron at the 4), Oklahoma City (playing Durant at the 4), and Indiana (playing Danny Granger at the 4) have all had success going small with their second units. And it's not like this is a brand-new development this season - Lamar Odom made a lot of money and was a huge difference-maker for two title teams doing this.

Gallinari has been the one that has seen the biggest individual improvement at power forward. He plays most of his minutes at small forward, but when he moves to the 4 with Denver's second unit (usually with Ty Lawson, Andre Miller, and Arron Afflalo on the perimeter), he becomes a remarkably more productive player.

His foul rate increases dramatically when he plays power forward. At the 3, he attempts just 5.6 free throws per 48 minutes. At the 4, it's nearly 13 per 48 minutes. He gets himself matched up with a bigger, slower player, and most times will blow by them and draw a foul at the rim. He's especially adept at doing this in spot-up situations. As the defender rushes to close out on his three-point shot, he'll blow by them, either creating a foul or an open mid-range shot. As a power forward, his eFG% increases from 49.6% to 56.1%, and he scores nearly eight points more per 48 minutes (22.1 at the 3 compared to 30.3 at the 4), and his PER spikes from 17.9 to 24.6. In every manner of speaking, Gallinari is a better offensive player at power forward.

Wallace, meanwhile, transforms his team defensively when he plays at power forward. For the season, Portland's defense allows just over 100 points per 100 possessions (100.3, to be exact). When Wallace is on the floor at any capacity, that number increases to around 96 points per 100 possessions. But when he's on the floor at power forward (usually in conjunction with Nic Batum at small forward), that number plummets all the way to 92 points per 100 possessions.

One of the biggest reasons for Portland's defensive success when Wallace is on the floor is his uncanny ability to induce missed shots. In the 49 possessions so far this season where Wallace has been the primary defender for a spot-up player, he's holding opponents to just 0.71 points per possession, and limiting them to 23.8% shooting from the floor (just 20% from three). In isolation situations, he allows just 0.58 points per possession, which is good for 6th in the entire league, and has not committed a shooting foul in those scenarios all season.

Thaddeus Young, however, is the player that takes this to another level. In his 352 minutes of play this year (through Tuesday's games), the 76ers have outscored their opponents by 153 points. That's almost 21 points per 48 minutes. From an offensive perspective, when Young is on the bench, Philly scores just 93.8 points per 100 possessions. While he's on the floor? That number balloons to 117.5 points per 100 possessions. And while Philly's entire bench has huge bumps, Young's is still higher. The four players that he generally shares the court with are Jrue Holliday, Lou Williams, Evan Turner, and Spencer Hawes, and none of them record offensive bumps higher than 16.9 points per 100 possessions (compared to the 25.7 for Young).

This bump is largely because of how deadly Young is in transition. Unfortunately, I can't provide anything by way of video, but Young is breathtaking to watch in the open floor, and effectively unguardable. As soon as Philly secures possession of the ball, either through a defensive rebound or through a turnover, Young will take off down the floor at a speed that no other forward in the league (other than maybe LeBron) can match. If you exclude last-second, half-court heaves (of which Young has two this season), Young is 21-for-27 from the floor in "transition" scenarios (according to Synergy Sports), and scores 1.47 points per possession, which puts him in the same class as players like LeBron and Blake Griffin among the league's most dynamic scorers in transition.

Now, this is not to say that going small at power forward is a solution for every team in every matchup. In the last week, Paul Millsap and the Jazz have demolished both Denver and the Clippers when they tried to go small with their second units. New Orleans would be able to do the same thing with Chris Kaman and Carl Landry if the rest of their team wasn't so dreadful that anything done by the bench is quickly nullified. However, against most teams, especially those with point guards that can push tempo effectively (like, say, Ty Lawson, Ray Felton, and Jrue Holliday), lineups like the ones run by Denver, Portland, and Philadelphia will often run opponents off the floor.

NFC Championship Pre-Game Commentary: Harbaugh Plays to Win the Game

2012-01-20T11:38:00.000-08:00

Without guts, there comes no glory.

The San Francisco 49ers enjoyed a lot of both Saturday in their heartrending 36-32 playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints. Tight end Vernon Davis hauled in 14-yard touchdown pass from Alex Smith with nine seconds remaining. Pandemonium overtook Bay Area living rooms and bars. Aging Candlestick Park shook during one of the most glorious moments it’s seen in over half a century, and that’s saying something, considering the building has housed the dramatics of Montana, Clark, Young, Rice, and Owens.

Yet, “The Grab,” “The Catch III,” or “The Throw and Catch” - whatever one deems to be the moment’s most appropriate moniker - would have never happened had coach Jim Harbaugh stuck with the traditional, conservative, established norm of football play-calling.

Trailing 32-29, San Francisco marched down the length of the field as time dwindled. As the 49ers entered the New Orleans red zone with 14 seconds left, conventional football wisdom would have suggested San Francisco turn to David Akers, their record-setting kicker who had just had the most productive season in NFL history. Avoid the risks, take the certain tie, move onto overtime, and trust your defense, some would say.

Harbaugh, though, is anything but a man of conventional wisdom. In fact, he has always been on the cutting edge of in-game decisions that buck the traditional way of doing things. In just his fourth game in charge of Stanford in 2007, Harbaugh committed the ultimate “no-no” by those traditional standards: he took points off the scoreboard by accepting a penalty on his team’s successful field goal attempt just to keep his offense on the field and further wear down the opposing defense. The bold decision was the first of many in the young coach’s career, and it was a vital reason that Stanford shocked then-No. 2 USC in the Coliseum.

So, it came as no surprise that Harbaugh chose not to settle for the tying field goal last Saturday, and opted instead for an aggressive seam pass from Smith to Davis in the end zone. This is a coach who - for better or for worse - has made his money by living vicariously through his quarterbacks on the field in tense situations (he’s a former QB himself). It cost Harbaugh badly when he neglected dominating running back Toby Gerhart at the end of the 2009 Big Game, and instead let a freshman Andrew Luck throw a game-ending interception to Cal safety Mike Mohammed.

Afterwards, Harbaugh himself admitted that was a bad decision. As was evident against the Saints, though, he’ll never apologize or think twice about giving his quarterback a chance to be the hero when his alternative is the kicker. Given Smith’s tortured seven-year history at the helm of the 49ers offense, though, entrusting him to throw was a decision that most coaches probably wouldn’t have been comfortable with. What if Smith was sacked? A ferocious Saints pass rush had already caused him to fumble twice.

What if he threw an interception? If his dart to Davis was only slightly off-target, that was certainly a danger, too.

Whatever the reason - maybe it’s because he isn’t far removed from his brash playing days - Harbaugh does not let such fears suffocate his decisions. He made his share of mistakes at Stanford, but unlike so many of his contemporaries, he doesn’t coach afraid. He doesn’t settle for field goals that will force overtime when he can score a touchdown to settle matters in regulation. His teams thrive off that aggressive approach.

Saturday’s final result: San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32 - thanks to that hard-hitting, “play to win” mentality. Unfortunately, that’s a mindset that doesn’t seem to be prevalent yet in the sport.

Even Harbaugh’s successor at Stanford, David Shaw, settled for a medium-distance field goal in the Fiesta Bowl less than two weeks earlier instead of allowing his offense to continue driving down the field, fearing that his red-hot quarterback Andrew Luck (not a freshman anymore, and on a 16-17 roll of completions) could possibly cough up the game if he was allowed to stay on the field. As it turns out, that supposedly “safe” decision - one that followed conventional football wisdom - blew up in Shaw’s face. Stanford missed two field goals with the game on the line and lost in heartbreaking fashion.

That’s a mistake that Harbaugh was not going to duplicate in his San Francisco opportunity. Even with a relatively worse quarterback and offensive arsenal than Stanford, he believed in his 49er offensive guns, and allowed his quarterback to do what Andrew Luck was forbidden from doing in Phoenix: pull the trigger in crunch time. Decisions are best evaluated by their results: the 49ers won; Stanford lost. Fortune favors the bold, and it certainly has smiled on Harbaugh, a leader who has even ruffled feathers with his exuberance and audacity. He is challenging the conservative play-calling status quo. It may be seen as a threat to some, but to the San Francisco 49ers and their fans, it looks like a return to NFC Championship Game glory.

Championship Sunday: The Stakes

2012-01-20T10:39:00.000-08:00

By Joe Parello

How could there possibly be anything more on the line than a trip to the Super Bowl this Sunday? Well, for the final four teams remaining in the quest for football's ultimate prize, history is on the line. You see, for each team still in the running, there is a chance to affect the history of the NFL beyond just this season. Several players have the chance to cement their legacy amongst the game's best, and each franchise has it's own milestone it can reach.

New York Giants: The Giants are seeking their fourth Super Bowl championship, which would move them into a tie for 4th most all-time with the Green Bay Packers. They are also looking to become the first team to win a Super Bowl in four different decades. They and the Packers have each won in three. FYI, those two teams are also the only franchises to win Super Bowls with three different starting quarterbacks.

Eli Manning: Peyton's younger brother has a chance to pass big bro in championships. He would join Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger as active quarterbacks with multiple championships, and fast track his path to the Hall of Fame.

Tom Coughlin: Similar to Manning, Coughlin has a chance to make his resume too good to pass up in Hall voting. With two Super Bowls, and an amazing building job in Jacksonville as an expansion coach, Coughlin would be up there near Bill Parcells in terms of accomplishments.

San Francisco 49ers: If the 49ers are able to bring home a Super Bowl championship they will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers at six for the most all-time. They will also tie the aforementioned Giants and Packers with three different Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, and they could match the Giants as a franchise to win in three different decades.

Jim Harbaugh: Has the chance to prove he is just that damn good. Harbaugh inherited an under-achieving team with a "bust" at quarterback and turned them into a championship caliber team in just one season. But, on the other end of that...

Mike Singeltary: Do you know who really hopes the 49ers don't win and make the past two coaching staffs look incredibly inept with all that defensive and offensive line talent? This guy.

Alex Smith: It's hard to make the case now, since Smith was so brilliant against New Orleans, but Smith would have rivaled Trent Dilfer as the worst quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl. Well, since that's out of the question, let's just go with total redemption.

Patrick Willis: The league's best inside linebacker looks to enter Ray Lewis territory as the leader of an elite defense that overcame a less than stellar offense to win it all.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will look to join the ranks of multiple Super Bowl winning franchises. This will be especially difficult for Browns fans to swallow, as the franchise failed to deliver a Super Bowl in 30 seasons in Cleveland. Meanwhile, since the move to Baltimore, the Ravens have been playoff mainstays, and may be able to deliver a second title in just over 15 years.

Ray Lewis: Ray-Ray can put himself in the same class as the top-five defensive players of the modern era with another Super Bowl to his credit. While he is no longer the dominant force he once was, Lewis is still the leader of the Ravens defense and one of the better linebackers in football. It would be tough to make a case against him, but Lawrence Taylor, "Mean" Joe Greene, Reggie White, Deion Sanders and Ronnie Lott are all tough to top. Oh, and that other guy on his team...

Ed Reed: What is the one thing Troy Polamalu has that Ed Reed doesn't? That's right, a championship. Well, he has two, but these aren't quarterbacks, multiple titles don't get you brownie points. Reed may be the best safety ever(though, again, that Lott guy was pretty good when he played the position), but if he doesn't win a championship, it may be hard to crown him so.

John Harbaugh: Gotta beat little brother to the title.

New England Patriots: Like the Giants, the Patriots are looking for their fourth Super Bowl championship. Just by making it to the big game the Patriots will have the second-most Super Bowl appearances with seven. Only the Steelers and the Cowboys would have more with eight.

Tom Brady: With another championship Tom Terrific can tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for the most all-time, and really amp up his case for the greatest quarterback ever. As a combination he and the next guy would also tie for the most titles of any duo in league history.

Bill Belichick: The evil genius can tie Pittsburgh's Chuck Noll for the most Super Bowl wins by a coach with four. The combination of Brady and Belichick will tie Noll and Bradshaw for the most by any duo and, given their current record for wins as a duo and the era they have done it in, will lock down the title of greatest coach-QB combo in league history.

Drunken Questions Answered Sober

2012-01-17T13:46:00.001-08:00

By Joe Parello

It certainly was an interesting weekend of football, and I found myself enjoying the majority of it while also enjoying several adult beverages. Naturally, when sports fans partake in the frothy ambrosia that is cheap beer, they begin arguing things that don't really need to be argued. During the second half of New England's beat down of the Tebow-led Broncos, this site's fearless leader, editor-in-chief Jeremy Conlin, and I argued the merits of Joe Flacco as "an above average NFL quarterback."

This debate went on for, oh, I don't know, seven hours? Maybe not, but it sure seemed like it did, and that's what happens when you're drinking and watching football. At the end of it, I thought to myself, "why did I just waste my breath arguing all night that Joe Flacco is above average? Who cares?" All that being said, I thought it was an interesting debate, just one that we could not adequately finish without statistics, context and of course, fully functioning brains.

With that in mind, here are two debates we drunkenly had that night, now analyzed with a clear mind and access to numbers and past results. Enjoy.

Debate 1
Jeremy: Joe Flacco has no redeeming qualities except throwing the ball hard.
Me: Joe Flacco is better than a bunch of other scrubs.
The way I see it, there are two approaches to putting this debate to rest: The objective approach of stats, and the subjective approach of "well, who would you take over Flacco?" Let's start with the objective.

Joe Flacco-212.5 Y/G, 58% passing, 20 TD, 12 INT, 81 QB Rating, 6.7 Y/A.
NFL Average-229.7 Y/G, 60% passing, 18 TD, 16 INT, 82.5 QB Rating, 7.2 Y/A.

By this metric, Flacco is just below average in every category, except TD to INT ratio. While the touchdowns and lack of turnovers is nice, I don't think it erases everything else. So, going strictly by numbers, I think we can say Flacco is, at best, an average quarterback. But, let's put a little bit of context to some of those numbers.

The Ravens run one of the more simplistic offenses in the NFL. It truly is a throwback to the great Steelers and Raiders teams of the 1970's. The only problem is, like the modern-day Ravens, neither of those teams were known for innovative offense. From what I can tell, the Ravens have four basic play types: Iso power run, counter run, play-action deep pass, and drop back intermediate crossing route, usually to a tight end.

With that in mind, Flacco's completion percentage should be expected to be a bit lower than most other NFL quarterbacks, simply because he is attempting lower percentage passes deep down the field. This would also hamper his Y/A and QB rating. Also factor in the fact that Flacco's sack percentage is a full point below the league average at 5.4%, and you see there are some hidden yards he is saving his team by not taking sacks.

But that doesn't fully answer the question. There is also something to be said for the subjective. Jeremy and I compiled a list of quarterbacks we would rather have than Joe Flacco. Here they are in the order of what division they play in, starting with the AFC East.

1.Tom Brady
2.Phillip Rivers
3.Ben Roethlisberger
4.Peyton Manning
5.Matt Schaub
6.Eli Manning
7.Mike Vick
8.Tony Romo
9.Aaron Rodgers
10.Matthew Stafford
11.Jay Cutler
12.Drew Brees
13.Cam Newton
14.Matt Ryan

Ok, so looking at it from this angle, we see that we had Flacco ranked, at best, 15th among active quarterbacks, making him remarkably average. Of course, that includes Peyton Manning, but we're going with it. I also decided to include Ryan, despite my refusals on Saturday night, because, honestly, he's just better. We also compiled a mini-list of guys that "may be" better than Joe Flacco. For the record, I do not think any of them are yet, but Jeremy brought these guys up(though I don't think he believes they are ALL better). Here they are, in no particular order.

1.Ryan Fitzpatrick
2.Matt Hasselbeck
3.Matt Moore
4.Andy Dalton
5.Tim Tebow

Throw in the fact that Sam Bradford was more impressive when healthy, Alex Smith is out-dueling Drew Brees in the playoffs, Josh Freeman is better than he played this year and Andrew Luck will be added to this mix next season, and I must concede defeat. While I think you can win a Super Bowl with him, Joe Flacco is not an above average NFL quarterback.

Debate 2
Jeremy: I still don't know if Tebow has done enough to warrant being 1st rounder.
Me: If you re-picked the 2010 draft now, Tebow is going in the 1st round.

Something to also keep in mind is that we are not accounting for merchandise sales, hype, buzz, hoopla, and the like in this debate. It is strictly about building a winning football team. For that reason, the fact that Tim Tebow has pretty much become a cultural icon is being tossed out the window. That does not mean, however, that we are throwing out the fact that he plays the most high-profile position on the field. You need a good quarterback to win, so his position has granted him a little extra value in this discussion.

If you go back and look at the first round of the 2010 draft, you will see the Broncos traded back in to draft Tebow at No. 25. That means that eight players chosen behind him would have to be better, with no players chosen before him being worse to kick him out of the first round. Obviously, this is incredibly inexact since teams often pick for positional need, but we're going to try to eliminate specific need and go for merit, while admitting that a good quarterback is worth more than a good left guard.

I have gone back through and found the players taken before No. 25 that I would take after Tebow. I have also gone back and found the players taken after No. 25 that I would take before Tebow. What happened? I found exactly six on each side, with two taken after No. 25 that were questionable. That means that the draft, at least two years later, appears to have placed Tim Tebow exactly where he should have been picked. Here are the six players taken before Tebow that should drop:

1.Gerald McCoy
2.Rolando McClain
3.C.J. Spiller
4.Tyson Aluala
5.Brandon Graham
6.Derrick Morgan

And here are the players taken after Tebow that should have shot up:
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Carlos Dunlap
3.Ben Tate
4.Navorro Bowman
5.Jimmy Graham
6.Aaron Hernandez

If you're curios, the two questionable players were Dallas' Sean Lee, who I am leaning towards putting ahead of Tebow, and Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown, who I am leaning towards putting behind. Either way, Tebow would still only drop two spots from his original position of No. 25. This means that if they re-drafted the class of 2010, Tim Tebow would belong in the first round. Yes, Tim Tebow is a first round pick.

3rd and 2:Three Lessons Learned and Two New Questions from Wild Card Weekend

2012-01-10T19:17:00.000-08:00

By Joe Parello

The first weekend of the NFL playoffs followed a few patterns.

1. The division winners all advanced at home.

2. The first games were boring as hell, while the late games were wildly entertaining.

3. The home crowds were especially fired up, for different reasons(first playoff game in Houston, Superdome takes it to another level in the post-season, New York fans never get home playoff games, TEBOW).

In the spirit of lists with barely comprehensible answers, I have compiled a couple for each Wild Card game. The weekend got started with a young Bengals team folding on the road amid a flurry of turnovers, and ended with the improbable run of Tim Tebow continuing in the most dramatic and Messianic way possible. In between, we got another Falcons playoff stinker and, for the first time in NFL history, a shootout between two 5,000 yard passers.

So, without further ado, here are the three lessons to take home and two questions to ponder about each game from the past weekend.

Texans defeat Bengals 31-10

What we learned-

1. Rookie quarterbacks will be rookie quarterbacks: Despite a fantastic rookie campaign, Cincinnati's Andy Dalton came back down to Earth in the H-town, throwing three picks and no touchdowns. Houston's T.J. Yates wasn't much better, only throwing for 159 yards, but he did manage to protect the football and let his team's great ground game and defense carry the load.

2. Wade Phillips may not be a great head coach, but the guy can build a defense: Ok, we kinda knew this before the game, but Houston's defensive performance only reinforced my feeling that Phillips was the best off-season acquisition any team made this past year. The 3-4 zone blitzing Texans tricked Dalton into the three aforementioned interceptions, but also sacked him four times and hurried him all day.

3. These two teams are actually pretty evenly matched: It goes back to the Dalton turnovers, but Houston only outgained Cincinnati by 40, and the Bengals actually possessed the ball longer and picked up more first downs. Now, this probably doesn't make the Bengals feel any better, but if not for a miraculous pick-six by Texans rookie defensive end J.J. Watt right before the half that completely shifted momentum, this one would have likely come down to the wire.

What's the deal, yo?-

1. How far can Houston go with Yates at quarterback?: This is an obvious one, but it bears asking. The Texans travel to Baltimore, the league's second best rush defense, and it will be interesting to see what happens if the ground game sputters.

2. What do the Bengals need to take the next step?: Which is a lot to ask in the loaded AFC North with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Maybe the simple answer is to just let Dalton and his fantastic young receiving corps develop, but the statistically good Bengals defense(7th in NFL)constantly folded against the AFC's best due to an inability to stop an offense with any semblance of balance.

Saintes defeat Lions 45-28

What we learned-

1. The Saints will never stop throwing: On two separate drives in the fourth quarter the Saints held a double digit lead and went for the kill. First, Brees found Robert Meachem for a 56 yard score while leading 31-21 with under 10 minutes remaining. Then, with under five minutes remaining and a 38-28 lead, Brees again found Meachem, this one for 41 yards to the Detroit one-yard line.

2. Despite their tremendous passing game, the Saints can run the ball: While the 466 yards Brees put up will get the headlines, and rightfully so, the Saints were able to run the ball when they needed to Saturday night, primarily by the goal line. New Orleans had three different backs rush for at least 47 yards with Pierre Thomas' 66 leading the way. The Saints ended the game with 167 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. They also averaged over 4.5 yards per carry, and each of their backs have the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

3. The Lions, however, cannot: Detroit finished the game with a pathetic 32 yards on 10 carries. Perhaps this really speaks to the problem teams face when they face New Orleans since the Saints score so quickly and force you to abandon the run to keep up. But really, Detroit couldn't keep the Saints defensive line out of their backfield, even when they tried to run.

What's the deal, yo?

1. Does New Orleans have the NFL's best offense?: Yardage-wise, we know the Saints are up there, but this team is rolling at a level the Packers were earlier in the season. Add in the fact that Brees is no longer turning over the ball, and the argument can certainly be made.

2. Do you have to stop Calvin Johnson to beat the Lions?: It certainly doesn't look like it. Megatron grabbed 12 balls for 211 yards and two touchdowns, but no other receivers seemed to make any hay after a few early catches by rookie Titus Young. Opposing defenses may be content to let Johnson catch a few jump balls, so long as they can lock up Detroit's other receivers and bait Matthew Stafford into a couple picks.

Giants defeat Falcons 24-2

What we learned-

1. Eli Manning is en fuego!: With New York's playoffs really starting two weeks ago against Dallas, the younger Manning has stepped his game up. In these past two games, Manning has thrown for 623 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Other than an intentional grounding in the end zone that cost his team two points, Manning was nearly flawless on the day.

2. The Giants' receiving corps can contend with the league's best, when healthy.: Hakeem Nicks came into the year as the established star, and Victor Cruz exploded for a 1,500 yard season to make everyone forget about Steve Smith leaving for Philly. But, Sunday, we saw that this dynamic group goes three-deep, when Mario Manningham made his presence felt as Atlanta did everything in their power to take away Cruz. Nicks ruled the day, but Manningham's reminder that he is a force as well puts the Giants up there with the Packers, Saints, Patriots(tight ends included) and Steelers in the league's upper echelon.

3. Tony Gonzalez can't buy a break: While he will likely retire No.2 on the NFL's all-time receptions list, No.1 amongst tight ends, Gonzalez may also go out without a playoff win. After years of playing on mediocre Kansas City teams that couldn't beat the AFC's elite, it appears the league's most decorated tight end has ended up on a mediocre Atlanta team that can't beat the NFC's elite. While this may not be the end, there doesn't seem to be much reason for optimism in what is left of his limited playing window.

What's the deal, yo?

1. Does Matt Ryan lose the "Matty Ice" nickname?: Matt Ryan has been very good so far in his young career, but that nickname came from a bunch of meaningless mid-season clutch moments that nobody outside Atlanta can remember. Now that Ryan is 0-3 in the playoffs, can we officially stop calling him that? Not saying he won't win playoff games in the near future, but let's at least let the guy earn it first.

2. Can the Giants' front four get enough pressure on Aaron Rodgers to give New York a realistic chance at an upset?: I think yes, and Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly becoming one of the league's most explosive pass rushers. With Justin Tuck coming off the other edge, and Chris Canty continuing to push the pocket up the middle, it's going to be interesting.

Broncos defeat Steelers 29-23(OT)

What we learned-

1. There is a very simple formula for winning with Tim Tebow: That is, run the ball well, force turnovers, and make plays in the vertical passing game. Tebow threw for 316 yards, and 234 of those yards came on five separate bombs of at least 30 yards. His other 16 attempts produced only 82 yards.

2. Demaryius Thomas is the perfect target for Tebow: A tall, long striding deep threat that can come up with jump balls is the perfect complement for Tebow's deep ball oriented passing game. Up until this game, Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor had been playing like one of the two or three best corners in the league. Not so much against Thomas, who hauled in four catches for 204 yards(51 YPC!), including the 80 yards game winner in overtime.

3. In the end, the Steelers just didn't have it for a playoff run this year: Much rightful praise will be put on Tebow and Denver this week, but that doesn't change the fact that we(and by "we", I mean "I") may have overestimated the Steelers, considering their injury situation. Perhaps Ben Roethlisberger's ability to play with injuries over the years has spoiled fans, but this team was not going far with their limitations against Denver. Roethlisberger showed he can only play well in stretches, the running back corps was down to two undrafted players, All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncy was out and the defense played the majority of the game without the services of five starters. True, one of those was Ryan Clark, who missed the game because of his blood disorder, but this wasn't going to get much better.

What's the deal, yo?

1. While we're on Pittsburgh's health, was this the last run for an aging Steelers team?: Tough to say, but the defense isn't getting any younger. With Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Aaron Smith, James Farrior, Larry Foote, Ike Taylor, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu all over 30 and struggling to stay healthy the past couple years, it is easy to see why people in the Steel City are concerned. On the plus side, the offense has an elite quarterback and a great young receiving corps, while the defense has done a nice job building a young corps around Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons and Ziggy Hood. Still, that is a lot of talent and leadership that could fall off at one time. It seems like the recipe for a down year in 2012.

2. Can Tebow play consistently enough to keep up with top offenses?: As we mentioned, the Broncos manufactured a handful of big plays, and did little for the rest of the game. That was good enough at home against a limping Roethlisberger, but will it be enough to out duel a healthy Tom Brady in Foxboro? It wouldn't seem like it, but the Broncos' receivers are making plays down the field, so I wouldn't count Denver out yet.

Kobe Bryant: You're Doing It Wrong

2012-01-07T11:39:00.000-08:00

There really isn't anything I can say about Kobe Bryant that hasn't already been said thirty or forty thousand times already. He's a player that's been in the league for 16 seasons, all of them in the league's 2nd-largest market, and he's achieved an inordinate amount of success - both individually and as a member of championship-level teams.

I'm really not in a position to criticize Kobe Bryant. He's capable of doing things on a basketball court that I never could, and clearly has a level of talent and skill that proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that his success isn't some wild coincidence.

That being said, so far this season, I have to say, Kobe, you're doing it wrong.

Through nine games this season, Kobe is averaging 23.3 field goal attempts per 36 minutes. That's the second-highest rate of his entire career, only surpassed by his 23.9 shots per 36 that he posted in 2006, the year he had carte blanche to shoot until his arms fell off. He's also posting a career high in USG% (Usage Rate - the percentage of possessions where Kobe is the statistical player of consequence - in layman's terms, the percentage of Lakers possessions that Kobe either shoots, gets fouled, or commits a turnover). This normally wouldn't be a problem, if not for a few factors that are very different about this season compared to previous seasons.

First, there's his wrist injury. He has a torn lunotriquetral ligament in his right wrist. I have no idea what that means, but it sounds bad. And it's not just an injury that can be shaken off. It's clearly affecting him somewhat - he's shooting a career-low 20% from three (just 8-for-40), and his True Shooting % of 52.1% is also a career low. Perhaps the best example came in Thursday's loss against Portland, when he opened the game shooting 8-for-11, but landed awkwardly on his wrist in the third quarter, and finished the game on a 5-for-13 stretch.

He's also shooting from less efficient spots on the floor. His three-point attempts are up, but his percentage is way down, and he's taking 7.3 shots from 16-23 feet (the least efficient range of any shot), which is his highest rate since 2007. By any measurement, he is having his least efficient year scoring-wise of his entire career.

In the midst of all this, both Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are enjoying their most efficient scoring years ever. Gasol is sporting a 61% TS% (2nd-highest of his career) and a 57.3% eFG% (career high). Despite that, he's averaging a career LOW in field goal attempts and free throw attempts. Next to him, Bynum is also at or near career highs in scoring efficiency, and before a 3-for-9 performance against Golden State on Friday, they were even higher. For those scoring at home, Bynum and Gasol combine for 26.2 shots per game at a clip above 57%, while Kobe shoots nearly that much at a clip 14% lower.

The problem is that Kobe is play way too much in isolation and post-up situations. Last season, Kobe shot 44.2% in isolation situations, with a PPP (points per possession) of .99. Posting up, he shot 49.3%, also with a PPP of .99. This year, those numbers have dropped to 32.4% on isolations (0.76 PPP) and 42.4% on post-ups (0.95 PPP). On top of that, he's isolating even more than he was last year (up from 31.5% of possessions to 33.9% of possessions). He's doing more of things that he is less efficient at, and it's inhibiting the Lakers' offense.

He's also struggling in pick-and-roll situations.

In 2009-2010, Bryant was the ballhandler in a pick-and-roll situation on 12.4% of his possessions (334 total). In those 334 possessions, he turned the ball over 19.8% of the time. Last season, he increased his screen-roll play up to 14.6% of his possessions (340 for the season), but his turnover rate fell to 15.3%. This season, however, his pick-and-roll play makes up 14.7% of his possessions, but he's turning the ball 26.2% of those possessions. If you compare those numbers with other pick-and-roll heavy wing players, like LeBron (10.6% of possessions, 10.5% turnover rate), or Wade (14.3% of possessions, 5.3% turnover rate), or Carmelo (16.4% of possessions, 9.7% turnover rate), his turnover rate is way too high.

His problem here is that he is ignoring the roll man too much. Only three of his 56 assists this season went to the roll man off of a screen. On too many plays, once he gets into the teeth of the defense, he either forces a bad shot or forces a bad pass to one of the spot-up shooters. Of his 11 turnovers in these situations, by my count, he has missed an open roll man (or, more often, an open Pau Gasol as he pops out) on seven of them. There have also been a number of times where Gasol or Bynum or McRoberts will come to set a screen for him, but he'll simply put up a (usually poor) shot before they even get there.

He's playing too aggressively for someone that wasn't particularly efficient to begin with and has subsequently injured his wrist. Subsequently, the Lakers' offense has taken serious steps back this season. They're currently 13th in the league in offensive efficiency, the lowest it has been in Kobe's entire career. In fact, since 1999 (Kobe's first year as a starter), the Lakers have only finished outside the top 8 once, in 2010.

To fix this problem, Kobe needs to scale back his instincts as a scorer. In 2008 and 2009, when the Lakers' offense was at its best, Kobe sported USG% of 31.4% and 32.2% (this year - 39.0%). Now he's taking more shots (while making less of them) and committing more turnovers despite playing fewer minutes. It's possible that this is merely some fluky statistics that are cropping up because of a new coach, some roster turnover, and no training camp, but there is still cause for concern. Bynum and Gasol are scoring too efficiently for them only to be seeing 12-14 shots each.

Kobe needs to isolate and post up less, because when he does those things, he's operating on the spots on the floor that Bynum and Gasol need, and Bynum and Gasol are much more efficient in those spots than Kobe is. Kobe needs to focus on creating pick-and-roll scenarios, and once he's in those situations, he needs to find the big men, especially Gasol, more frequently.

I'll leave you with the inaugural Power Poll of 2012:

The Isiah Thomas Division:

30. Washington Wizards
29. New Jersey Nets
28. Charlotte Bobcats
27. Detroit Pistons

The Mike Dunleavy Division

26. Milwaukee Bucks
25. Sacramento Kings
24. Utah Jazz
23. New Orleans Hornets
22. Cleveland Cavaliers

Colonel Craptastic

21. Golden State Warriors
20. Phoenix Suns
19. Toronto Raptors
18. Minnesota Timberwolves
17. Houston Rockets

Wait A Minute, It Wasn't Supposed To Go Like This

16. Boston Celtics
15. New York Knicks
14. Dallas Mavericks
13. Memphis Grizzlies
12. Indiana Pacers
11. Los Angeles Lakers

The Good Bad Team

10. Atlanta Hawks

The Bad Good Team

9. Los Angeles Clippers

Yeah, I Guess So

8. San Antonio Spurs
7. Orlando Magic

The Exceedingly Goofy, Inexplicably Really Good Teams

6. Philadelphia 76ers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
4. Denver Nuggets

The Contenders

3. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Chicago Bulls

The Favorite

1. Miami Heat

Keepin it real: Tebow vs Slash

2012-01-05T11:04:00.000-08:00

By Joe Parello

Man, it sure has been a great week for race relations and the NFL. My first hint that it was going to be a great one was Deadspin's foray into determining race superiority with a Madden video game simulation. You can find that story and video here and, for the record, most football fans would pay good money to see that game for the simple reason that both those teams are loaded. Well, not the white team's secondary or the black team's kickers, but still. Also for the record, I would've started Gronk over Witten on the white team and Vick over Newton on the black team, but that's neither here nor there.

The other great race debate this week occurred on ESPN's First Take when former Steelers quarterback/receiver/punter/scapegoat Kordell Stewart(see where he gets the nickname "Slash" from?) basically stated that if Tim Tebow were black, he would not have gotten the many opportunities as he has in the NFL this year, at least not this early and without proving himself as a passer. I will leave the jokes about how this is the opposite of the ESPN The Magazine article about Mike Vick being white to your imagination, but here is an incredibly poor quality video of Stewart since I couldn't find an official one on ESPN's website. Conspiracy by The Man? Probably.

While there is little doubt black quarterbacks have historically gotten a raw deal in the NFL, Stewart's reminder that the mega-talented Warren Moon had to toil in the Canadian Football League to prove himself to NFL scouts is a great example of that, is Stewart right to compare himself and his plight to Tebow? I would argue yes, and I would also assert that no quarterback, black or white, was more similar to Tim Tebow because of his college stardom and novelty of style at his time entering the league. Before writing the rest of this piece, I must admit a few things so you know where I'm coming from:

1. I am a Steelers fan.
2. The way many fans want Tim Tebow to succeed so badly today is the way I felt about Stewart in the late 90's and early 2000's.
3. I have already written a piece on Tim Tebow for this site. Check it out here.
4. I like Tim Tebow and think a smart team can win, perhaps even win big, with him at quarterback.
5. All my stats came from Profootballreference.com, the best one-stop shop for pigskin knowledge. If you find my analysis to be skewed, head over there and compare the numbers for yourself.

With that out of the way, let's review the career of one Kordell "Slash" Stewart and compare it to where Tim Tebow is today.

Stewart was a decorated quarterback at the University of Colorado, leading the Buffaloes to a Fiesta Bowl victory and top-3 finish as a senior in 1994-95. He was also named 2nd Team All America while running a pro-style offense under coach Rick Neuheisel. Of course, that season will mostly be remembered for his famed "Miracle at Michigan" Hail Mary pass to Michael Westbrook that pushed the Buffs past the Wolverines on their way to a magical season.
For his efforts, in a pro-style, two tight end offense mind you, Stewart fell to the second round of the NFL draft, No. 60 overall. Many teams informed Stewart that, if they drafted him, it would be to play wide receiver, and not quarterback. Eventually the Steelers selected him, and used him as a unique and versatile weapon on their 1995 AFC Champion squad.

Contrast this with Tebow, who ran a spread-option offense in college, yet was drafted late in the first round, and it is easy to see that Stewart has a bit of a point. However, Tebow's status as one of the greatest college football players in history and a great Christian role model certainly factored in as well. As a rookie, the Broncos would implement a special package for the athletic and powerful Tebow, mostly down by the goal line, but by year two, Denver would cut proven veteran Kyle Orton and give into the demands of the majority of Broncos fans by starting Tebow.

Shortly after the Steelers allowed Neil O'Donnell(mostly known for throwing two interceptions directly to Dallas corner Larry Brown and making him MVP of Super Bowl XXX) to walk in free agency, Pittsburgh turned to veteran Mike Tomczak to handle the starting quarterback duties. The following year, without any fan sponsored billboards, the starting job was given to Stewart. It is this year that I believe is most comparable to Tebow's polarizing 2011 campaign. Let's take a look at the numbers.

'97 Stewart: 11-5 as a starter, 21 TD's 17 INT, 189 yds. pass p/g, 30 yds. rush p/g, 75.2 rating.
'11 Tebow: 7-4 as a starter, 12 TD's 6 INT, 123.5 yds. pass p/g, 47 yds. rush p/g, 72.9 rating.

The first thing that jumps out at me, is that these numbers are actually pretty similar, but they need some context. First, let's give Tebow an extra five TD passes, since he averaged just over one a game, and let's give him an additional two interceptions since he averaged a little over one every other game. That gives him an adjusted 17 TD's and 8 INT, a very efficient complete season total.

Tebow certainly has his strengths in this comparison, he has fewer turnovers and more rushing yards, but Stewart appears to be the better passer. Another thing that must be noted is that passing yards were much harder to come by in 1997 than they were this season. This year, the average quarterback threw for nearly 230 yards a game. In 1997, that total was about 30 yards less. I don't want to propose some way to account for that, because I am no mathematician, but I do think it should be kept in mind that, due to changes in the rules on how to defend receivers and hit quarterbacks, it is easier to throw in the modern league. For that reason, passing is a big plus for Stewart.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Stewart was running a traditional pro-style offense featuring a power running game. The Steelers never changed their system to accentuate his strengths as an athlete and outside the pocket passer the way the Broncos have for Tebow. Stewart would lead Pittsburgh to the AFC Championship game, where they fell to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos(coincidence? I think not).

As the Broncos prepare to host Pittsburgh this weekend(this thing is writing itself, I swear), let us also take note that, while Tebow rushed for more yards, he also took more sacks and fumbled far more often. Despite, five fewer starts, Tebow still took 33 sacks for -225 yards compared to Stewart's 20 sacks for -152. If you project Tebow to a full season, you get 48 sacks for -327 yards, or three sacks a game for just over 20 yards lost, both are over twice the totals of Stewart.

As for fumbles, even without projecting his numbers out for a full season, Tebow still more than doubled up Stewart in fumbles 13 to six. Projecting for a full season, Tebow would have 18-19 fumbles, giving him triple the fumbles of Stewart.Does this all make up for his nine fewer interceptions and 17 yards per game advantage on the ground? Perhaps not, but it certainly makes the categories closer. The clincher for Stewart is completion percentage, where he bests Tebow 54% to 47%, and that is without adjusting for the fact that the average completion percentage has gone from 56% in 1997 to over 60% in 2011.

But, there is a case to be made for Tebow as well. Stewart took the helm of a reigning division champion that was only two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Tebow took over a team that finished dead last in their division the previous year and hadn't had a winning season since 2006. Stewart's Steelers featured the 11th ranked defense in a defense driven league, while Tebow's Broncos boasted the league's 24th best unit. While Stewart's weapons were nothing to write home about, he did still have Jerome Bettis in his prime, who rushed for over 1,600 yards, while Tebow has helped rejuvenate the career of Willis McGahee.

The point is, while Stewart may have had the slightly more impressive season, there is a case to be made that Tebow deserves this shot and that he is running with it quite well. What Stewart takes issue with is the way he was treated in Pittsburgh compared to the way Tebow is being treated in Denver. There were no billboards taken out by fans to start "Slash." In fact, the fans in Pittsburgh seemed to turn on Stewart with every misstep. After sub-par play the following two seasons, Stewart was cast off to play receiver for the Steelers at times, before reclaiming his job in 2000 and making the Pro Bowl in 2001.

However, after leading Pittsburgh to the AFC Championship game in 2001, Stewart was benched in 2002 three games into the season in favor of Tommy Maddox. He would bounce from the Bears to the Ravens and finally hang it up in 2005 as a backup in Baltimore. The question is, will this be the fate of Tim Tebow if he struggles? Will the Broncos current starter be sent off to practice with the tight ends if he has a few lean years? Will the fans turn on Tebow and give up on him when he fails to become an All-Pro? Will he end up serving as a third-stringer behind nobodies like Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright late in his career?

Kordell Stewart doesn't think so, but there is more to it than race. Tebow is a brand in a way Stewart never was. A Heisman Trophy winner and two-time national champion with the following of conservative Christians throughout the country, Tebow is certainly appealing for more than just his skin color. However, Stewart's criticisms do come with merit, and this story is far from over. Not to beat a dead horse and make a complex issue overly simplistic, but, what if Tim Tebow were black?

Fiesta Bowl: The Cardinal Sin

2012-01-04T16:47:00.000-08:00

David Shaw performed admirably in his first season as Stanford football head coach, but one extremely poor decision turned the entire Fiesta Bowl on its head Monday.

Stanford dominated Oklahoma State in the Desert. The Cardinal’s 590 total yards of total offense easily outpaced the Cowboys’ 464. They brutalized the Big 12 champion through the air and on the ground. Andrew Luck turned in a literally unstoppable 27-31, 341-yard performance that was complemented by 243 yards on the ground.

Stanford controlled the football for an absurd 42 minutes of the game, while Oklahoma State had it for only 18. The Cardinal were lethal on third down (8-14). The Cowboys were not (4-12).

Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon did have a big game, but that was expected: the Stanford defense made up for it by smothering the Cowboys’ running attack to the tune of only 26 yards, and ultimately did its job by putting the Cardinal offensive juggernaut in position to drive for the winning score.

Stanford definitively proved that it had a better offense than Oklahoma State. It definitively proved that it also had the better defense. Yet, it lost the game because coach Shaw took the outcome out of the hands of those two superior units, and instead laid all the weight on the shoulders of an injured, struggling freshman kicker.

The Cardinal lost in gut-wrenching 41-38 overtime fashion after Jordan Williamson missed three field goals, including a potential game-winner at the end of regulation.

“Our kids played hard, but they just didn’t finish the game,” Shaw had the nerve to say afterwards.

Wait - what?!

Coach, if you want your kids to finish the game, maybe you should actually give them a chance to do so. But you never did give quarterback Andrew Luck - playing arguably the finest game of his career - that opportunity.

With a minute to work with, all three timeouts, unbreakable momentum, and the best college quarterback in recent memory at his disposal, Shaw decided to instead rely on a kicker playing with shaky confidence after missing a kick earlier in the game.

Then, after Williamson failed miserably in crunch-time, Shaw inexplicably turned to him again less than 10 minutes later, this time for an even more difficult 47-yard try in overtime. How could he possibly believe that Williamson’s second try would be any more successful than the first fiasco?

“Against a team like Oklahoma State, you can’t settle for field goals,” Shaw said after the game.

If that’s true, coach, then why did you settle for one when it mattered most?

Had Jim Harbaugh still been at the helm, his famously aggressive mentality would have certainly allowed Luck to lead Stanford into the end zone, and he might have went for two as well, just for kicks.

A near-perfect Luck was shredding through the Cowboys’ defense with unthinkable ease, and there was little chance that he wouldn’t lead Stanford into the end zone - or at least set up a true chip shot of a field goal attempt. I was at University of Phoenix Stadium, on the sidelines and in the tunnel with Stanford before the team took the field. I saw and felt the truth: Andrew Luck, if given the chance, was not going to lose that football game.

But, as it turns out, Luck’s Stanford career ends in legendary yet disappointing fashion. Perhaps it’s fitting: he was so good that only his own coach - and not a great Oklahoma State team - could stop him.

A Childish Approach to the NFL Playoffs

2012-01-02T07:50:00.000-08:00

By Joe Parello
There was a time when I was an absolute NFL prophet. I don't mean to toot my own horn, but you could just go ahead and call me Joe-stradamus for my uncanny ability to pick the Super Bowl winner and loser before the season even began.
Unfortunately, that came between the years of 1993 and 1995, when I had yet to reach 10 years of age. During those years, I successfully picked the three Super Bowl winners, and I also tabbed two out of the three big game losers as well. In 1993, I picked a rematch between the Cowboys and Bills, with Dallas again winning the title. 1994 saw my only incorrect pick over this span, as I picked the 49ers to beat Pittsburgh instead of the Chargers. I was only three yards off, to be fair. I got it right in the AFC the next year when I picked Pittsburgh to lose to Dallas, a pick that killed my heart as a young Steelers fan.
My father and his office friends were amazed by my brilliance, and labeled me a gambling prodigy to be. I am not writing this to brag about a few lucky picks I made as a child, because I quickly came back down to Earth the following year when I failed to pick either Super Bowl participant correctly for the next three seasons. I am writing this to point out that
1. It was a different and slightly more predicable league back then.
2. My picks fell off the more I over thought my prognostications.
In 1993, why should I have picked anything other than a Cowboys-Bills rematch? Buffalo had dominated the AFC, winning the last three conference titles, but failed to win the big game. The Cowboys were a budding dynasty that featured the games most balanced offense and overwhelming defense. To pick any other game would have been looking too much into it, which is exactly what I probably would have done this year. If I were making my 1993 picks now, I probably would have pointed out that the Dan Marino led Dolphins were coming off a division title and had more fire power than Buffalo. I still would have gone with the Cowboys, but I probably would have taken the Phins in the AFC.
In 1994, I simply picked the 49ers to overtake the Cowboys because of the addition of Deion Sanders, the most dominant defensive back, and possibly defensive player, in the league. The next year, Prime Time moved to Dallas, so I picked the Cowboys. Picking the Steelers twice was a mini-homer pick, but I saw the Bills' stars aging and didn't know who else would fill that AFC power vacuum. The Dolphins were my second choice, if you're curious.
So, applying that same logic to this season, I should have picked the Packers over the Patriots. Let's not over think things here, the Packers have to be the favorite, and the Patriots were the best team in football in 2010. But, we now have the luxury of seeing how the 2011 season played out and what the playoff seeds will be. With that in mind, here is my totally elementary playoff preview.
AFC
Before the year, I would have gone with New England with pretty good confidence. However, after watching the season unfold, I still think the Steelers are the best team in the conference. With the quarterback issues in Houston, there are now only three legitimate contenders in the AFC, the No. 1 seed New England, the No. 2 seed Baltimore and the No. 5 seed Pittsburgh. The Patriots have the best quarterback, but also feature, perhaps, the league's worst defense. Baltimore has a defense capable of dominating, but also has a streaky offense that occasionally forgets to give their best player, running back Ray Rice, enough touches.
That leaves the Steelers. Again, call it a mini-homer pick, but Pittsburgh is the only team with a good defense(best in points allowed) and an elite quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. They also have a roster loaded with championship experience. I know you want to talk me out of it, but don't. I'm aware the Steelers will most likely have to play three road games and that Roethlisberger is gimpy with a high ankle sprain. I am also aware they will most likely be without running back Rashard Mendenhall. Don't care. I'm not over thinking this one, they're the best team in the conference.
NFC
I don't think I have to go into too much detail for this one. It's Green Bay. It had to be the Packers before the year started, and a 15-1 season has only confirmed my suspicions that this is a budding dynasty in Title Town. I know their defense is down a bit and I know top receiver Greg Jennings has missed the past couple games with a knee injury, don't care. I like the Saints, but I can't pick a team that lost to St. Louis, and the 49ers lack the explosiveness to keep up with the Packers or Saints. The Giants are actually an intriguing pick, but I think they're too inconsistent, and the Falcons and Lions have given me little reason to think they're ready to play for a championship.
Super Bowl
Just like in 1993, I look for history to repeat itself this year. I like the Pack to win their second in a row against Pittsburgh and establish themselves as the team to beat for the next half decade in the process. Now, don't go hit Vegas with my picks just yet. This is, after all, incredibly shallow and childish analysis. My point is, in some years, that is all you need.

Conlin's Week 17 NFL Picks

2011-12-31T12:04:00.000-08:00

Well, it's that time of year again. The time that we reflect on the past year and make a bunch of lame resolutions to become a better person and turn over a new leaf. I don't particularly want to become a better person, because that would most likely involve me having to give up gambling, and that's a situation that I will never accept.

This year continued my trend of the last few years, where I started off the season exceptionally strong (through 5 weeks I was 42-33-2) before completely falling apart (Weeks 6-16 I went 68-89-8). In order to finish .500 or better this season, I need to go 14-2 this week. Can I do it? Of course not. But here are my Week 17 picks anyway, home teams in CAPS, as always.

Washington (+8) over PHILADELPHIA

We have an 8-point spread with nothing at stake. Either Dallas or New York will end up with 9 wins, so the Eagles are officially eliminated from the playoffs. Washington, on the other hand, hasn't had anything to play for in a month. If we're removing any incentive for either of these teams to care, why should I believe that the Eagles will cover an 8-point spread? I'll take the points.

San Francisco (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS

This is a no-brainer. If San Francisco wins, they lock up the #2 seed. If St. Louis loses, they have an outside shot at the #1 pick (should Indianapolis beat Jacksonville). We have one team with a clear incentive to win, and the other with a clear incentive to lose. This is the kind of game that I'm willing to lay double-digits on in Week 17.

MINNESOTA (-1.5) over Chicago

What happens when a stoppable force (Chicago's passing game with Caleb Hanie and/or Josh McCown) meets a breakable object (Minnesota's secondary)? We're going to find out in this game. I'm going with Minnesota here because I have a minimal amount of faith in Joe Webb, Christian Ponder, and Percy Harvin's collective ability to score points against a decent defense, while I have no faith in Caleb Hanie, Josh McCown, Marion Barber, and Roy Williams' collective ability to score points against any defense.

GREEN BAY (+4) over Detroit

Wouldn't Detroit failing to beat Green Bay's second string be the ultimate Detroit Lions act of the season? When you really look at it, Detroit's only impressive wins this season were home against Chicago and on the road in Dallas, and they only won that game because they had two pick-sixes where the return man broke at least three tackles on his way to the end zone. Their other wins: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Denver, Carolina, Minnesota, Oakland, and San Diego. Are any of those wins really jumping off the page for anyone? Because they aren't for me. They've been a completely schizophrenic team all season, and the only logical conclusion to their season would be losing to Green Bay's backups.

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Carolina

It's gotten to the point where I'm just going to take New Orleans at home regardless of who they're playing or the spread. Their last three home games, they've won by 25 over the Giants, 14 over the Lions, and 29 over Atlanta. Oh, by the way, at least two (and possibly all three) of those teams will be in the playoffs next week. Cam Newton has been spectacular, but Carolina won't be able to get enough stops to keep the game close.

Tennessee (-2) over HOUSTON

Tennessee has to win to get into the playoffs (although they'll need New York and Cincinnati to lose, also). Houston is locked into the #3 seed regardless of what happens with any other game. So we have one team with everything to play for and one team with nothing to play for. Easy decision.

Indianapolis (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE

My New Year's resolution is to punch anyone in the face if they ask someone to put this game on one of the TVs at the bar that I will be at. For the purposes of national morale, this game should be blacked out in every market.

MIAMI (-3) over New York Jets

Miami is 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games. The Jets are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games. The Jets have something to play for (a potential playoff birth), but the fact that Miami is actually just plain better than the Jets, both against the spread and statistically, is swinging my decision for me.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Buffalo

The Patriots still need a win to lock up the #1 seed, so Brady will suit up for sure. However, I worry that Bellichick will take the same approach that he did against the Colts and Redskins, where he knew the game was likely in the bag just because of the fact that they showed up, so he went mostly vanilla in the second half, not wanting to dip into his bag of tricks unless he needed to (four complete thoughts in one sentence - get some). I like this Buffalo team, and it does feel bad that they had such a promising start to the season before falling apart, but I think they're too banged up to keep up with the Pats.

ATLANTA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay

I've said multiple times that I would keep picking against Tampa Bay until they gave me a reason not to. In the last 9 weeks, I haven't seen one.

CINCINNATI (+2) over Baltimore

So far on the road this season, Baltimore has lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Diego, while beating St. Louis, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. If we ignore the Pittsburgh game (because it seems that Baltimore spent their offseason worrying about matching up with Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh alone), Baltimore has been a pretty embarrassing road team.

Both teams have something to play for, with Cincinnati needing a win to make the playoffs, and Baltimore needing a win to lock up the AFC North and a #2 seed. However, Baltimore sucks on the road. So there.

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over CLEVELAND

They managed to beat St. Louis by 27 starting Charlie Batch at quarterback. I think they can beat Cleveland by a touchdown, especially given that they can still grab the #2 seed with a win and a Baltimore loss.

San Diego (+3) over OAKLAND

Somehow, Denver holds a tiebreak over San Diego that would cause Denver to win the division if all three teams finish 8-8. So this means San Diego has nothing to play for. However, Norv Turner is probably too stupid to have realized this yet, so expect San Diego to come out swinging.

DENVER (-3) over Kansas City

Tebow.

Seattle (+3) over ARIZONA

Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the points.

Dallas (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I've thought all season that Dallas was better, and hopefully they'll prove me right for once. They're 4-5 in games decided by less than a touchdown, New York is 5-1. Statistically speaking, this means that New York has been luckier than Dallas, and New York's record in close games will likely regress towards the mean. Dallas is also just 5-9-1 against the spread this season, which should also regress (or, in this case, progress) towards the mean. The two teams are just about dead even in total DVOA (+6.4% for New York, +6.2% for Dallas), but Dallas is better in weighted DVOA (+5.8% to +2.7%), and Dallas has a better SRS (2.3 for Dallas, 0.9 for New York). Add all of that up and I'm taking Dallas.

Three Team Tease of The Week:

New England (to PK), San Francisco (to -0.5), Pittsburgh (to +3.5)

Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 110-122-10
Teases: 10-6

3 Games in 3 Nights

2011-12-28T12:52:00.000-08:00

I still can’t get my head around so many things about the Los Angeles Lakers. They got screwed by David Stern with the CP3 trade, they lost Lamar Odom for nothing because of it, they have a new coach, new system for the first time in 11 years, a defensive first mentality (also for the first time in quite a long time) and they may not even be the best team in town.

Still, they have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum (for god knows how long) and Ron Artest (I refuse to type the other name) so they should be fun to watch, right?

Well, if you like 4^thquarter breakdowns, turnovers, missed free throws, horrible pick and roll defense, struggling to reach a hundred points and lineups consisting of Blake-Barnes-Artest-Walton-Murphy, you were in for a treat.

DECEMBER 25^th

Things started looking bright for the Lakers in the first game, they were outhustling a young, hustling team, looking like their new commitment to defense was paying off and they had a generous lead in the 4^th quarter against them.

Who are "them?"

MVP Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls were not playing a very smart game, they were going through the motions, this having to do with the lockout, the shortened training camp and the new face (and mask) they brought with Rip Hamilton, Rip didn’t look all that great in this game, but he doesn’t need to be great, in the future he has to be solid knocking down 2’s and 3’s at a respectable rate while playing respectable defense and I’m confident he will be able to pull it off which will make the Bulls a fantastic team.

The Lake Show plays a completely different style of ball, gone is the triangle and it’s replaced with a new system that borrows elements from the Duncan-Robinson Spurs teams (which new coach Mike Brown was an assistant coach on) and sprinkles just enough of the triangle to avoid having the players go crazy because they have so much to learn. But that wasn’t the selling point he pitched to Jim Buss to be the new coach of the team. He insisted about defense, he insisted about defense on a team that has in their starting lineup 3 players over thirty to go along with Andrew Bynum (whose knees could pop at any time, even in his sleep).

What does this mean?

It means that any concentrated effort can only last for small stretches. It can’t last with the condensed schedule, it can’t last with players that might get injured at any moment and it can’t last with rookies or out of shape players.

This stretch I’m talking about was the third quarter, the Lakers looked like all the things Mike Brown promised, they looked young and they played with intensity.

But then the 4^thquarter came and things got sour for the Lakers.

The Bulls didn’t look like they really wanted to win, until, all of the sudden they got the best Christmas presents they could get in the 4^th quarter.

4 missed free throws, turnovers, and a fading superstar that still thinks he can will his team to places he can’t, and failing hard in the process.

It wasn’t hard to play the game “What would CP3 do?” with the last plays of the game, every single possession made you think about him. The most noticeable one was the last play, when Kobe decided to commit basketball suicide and drive against four Bulls that were salivating at the thought of him going to the basket.

All of this, paired with some very good defense by Luol Deng, gave the Bulls their first win of the year. The Lakers had some things to look upbeat about, like Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy, Devin Ebanks, and some aspects of their defense, but this is a franchise that doesn’t look at things like ‘potential’ and ‘project’ like positives. This is the NBA, you cannot stop to think about a loss in the start of a back-to-back-to-back.

DECEMBER 26^th

The Sacramento Kings, on the other hand, are completely based around the idea of potential and projects - even off the court - they are toying around with plans to build a new arena and keep the team in the city.

But they made the Lakers look like amateurs. If you thought that only elite players could destroy the Lakers pick and roll defense, think again. Marcus Thorton, Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, and even the last pick of the NBA draft, Isaiah Thomas (no, not THAT Isiah Thomas – notice the spelling) tore their defense apart and made Mike Brown go postal.

It took a 14 points lead to get the Kings crowd chanting “BEAT LA!” but it was better late than never, or so they thought.

Seconds after the chant started, L.A looked like everything a fan could imagine, slowly cutting a 14 points lead with tenacious defense, excellent ball movement and most of all, a team that looked great. Even Ron Artest was using various posts ups and punishing Sacramento for not having a player that could match him in the post.

But then reality kicked in again. Those efforts can’t be maintained for long stretches, at least for now. In the future, with the rookies getting more accustomed, Bynum coming back and Ron Artest getting back to game shape thing may change, but not now. The Kings took the game after holding off the Lakers 4^th quarter attack, 100-91. Back to L.A we go.

DECEMBER 27^th

For a team playing their first game of the season, playing against a team on the 3^rdnight of a back-to-back-to-back, one would’ve thought that Utah would take every chance to run, trying to induce the Lakers into a heart attack by halftime. Turns out, however, that the Utah Jazz are a horrible team with a horrible coach. They’re pretty much a bunch of projects that may not even be “decent” in the next 3 years.

This seemed like a perfect game for the Lakers. The game turned out to be not about fatigue, but about chemistry and rhythm, which is something the Lakers have and the Jazz don’t.

Ron Artest threw down a vicious dunk, Kobe crossed up Raja Bell, Gasol spat out a pretty decent 22 point, 9 rebound, and 5 blocked shot stat line, and the defense held the Jazz to just 32% shooting from the floor and 71 points.

Make no mistake, the defensive effort means practically nothing, basically every game until March means practically nothing, it’s all about setting a rhythm for the end run. This was a morale booster, and the Lakers were in dire need of that.

Gone are the three straight games and now they can look to much happier things, right?

NBA Meme of the Day - Dec. 28th 2011

2011-12-28T11:57:00.000-08:00