Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Your Champions League Round of 16 Primer

Can anyone unseat reigning champion Barcelona?
By Justin Sherman (@JShermOfficial) and Alejandro Vargas (@callmejandro)

Ed. Note- For this very special Champions League preview, our resident soccer guru Justin is enlisting the help of his buddy Jandro. The two of them will take you through each first round pairing of Europe's most prestigious club tournament, breaking down matchups, players to watch, and giving predictions.

Enjoy!


Paris St. Germain vs. Chelsea 

1st leg: 2/16 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/9 2:45 PM

Overview

A season ago, this may have been the headliner for many in this stage of the competition, but Chelsea have had a disastrous league campaign that resulted in the sacking of Jose Mourinho.

Still, not all hope is lost. You may recall what happened the last time this was the case -- Chelsea won the Champions League, with an interim manager, nonetheless. The blues are coming off a 5-1 win over Newcastle with renewed confidence, and an unbeaten run of 12 games under interim boss Guus Hiddink. Diego Costa has regained his scoring boots and Pedro has come back to life with a brace over the weekend.

PSG, meanwhile, dropped Ligue 1 points for only the fourth time this season, when Lille held them to a 0-0 draw at Parc des Princes on Saturday.

The goalless tie ensured that Laurent Blanc's men continue their incredible run of 35 matches without defeat in Ligue 1. The draw also preserved PSG's run of 32 home league matches without a loss.

With Marco Verratti, Javier Pastore and Gregory van der Wiel returning from injury, the team should be at full strength, presenting a challenging task for Chelsea.

Players to watch

Justin: Angel Di Maria (PSG) was signed out of Manchester purgatory specifically for this competition. PSG have been good in this tournament, but not elite, failing to get out of the quarter-finals the last 3 years. If Di Maria can find the form that won him man of the match in the '14 final for Real Madrid, PSG could do some serious damage.

Alejandro: Diego Costa (Chelsea) has scored 8 goals in his last 10 matches in the Premiership and his physicality always makes him a presence for any defense. However, his temper has gotten the better of him before, but if he can keep his cool, this disappointing Chelsea squad may be able to make something of this season yet.

Deciding factor

Justin: With so many great players gracing the pitch in this tie, it’s easy to be blinded by the star power. The little guys are usually the ones that can tilt a match of this magnitude, and nobody may be more important than Nemanja Matic (Chelsea). The Serbian will have to be the organizer and keeper of the ball, protecting a defense that needs all the help it can get.

Alejandro: It will interesting to see what impact IF ANY* the dismissal of Serge Aurier has on this PSG back line. After starting 19 of the 26 Ligue 1 matches for the defending champs, Aurier was dismissed after an inexcusable video in which he made homophobic comments about manager Laurent Blanc was released. According to Blanc, that had no impact on the preparation of the squad for this Chelsea, game but soon we will find out if that is true, especially with Diego Costa playing exceptionally well as of late. John Terry (Chelsea) has also been ruled out of the match after picking up an injury Saturday against Newcastle United.

Prediction

Justin: This should be one of the closer ties of the round that I believe will be decided by the play of the defense. Chelsea’s defense is OLD, but David Luiz cannot be trusted -- with anything. I got PSG, by a Zlatan Ibrahimovic nose. 

Alejandro: As my esteemed colleague Mr. Sherman has pointed out, I also believe defense will be the key to this match. However, with PSG having their domestic win streak snapped recently, I am taking Chelsea in this tie, with a masked Diego Costa swashbuckling in style.

Benfica vs. Zenit 

1st leg: 2/16 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/9 12:00 PM

Overview


These two sides will reacquaint as they met in the group stage of last year's tournament. Zenit pulled out the shock win in Portugal, handing Benfica its first loss in 14 European home encounters (W11 D2) since Barcelona won there in the 2012/13 group stage. Heading into Friday’s rivalry game with Porto, Benfica had won their previous 11 games. A 2-1 defeat after an inspired performance from ex-Real Madrid goalkeeper Iker Casillas ended their run.

André Villas-Boas returns to his native country, as his Zenit side are seeking a first ever appearance in the quarter-finals, after winning their group by an impressive 5 points. They have won each of their last three visits to Portugal and possess one of the most daunting home field advantages in the tournament -- winter in Russia.

Players to watch

Justin:
How could anyone not pay attention to a player named Hulk (Zenit)? It also doesn’t hurt that he’s pretty damn good. With three goals (most of the sublime variety) and a couple assists in the Group stage, Hulk was the anchor for an offense that scored an impressive 13 goals. Zenit’s only loss in the Group came in matchday 6 to Gent, which just so happened to be the only game Hulk missed.

Alejandro: Alexander Kokorin and Yuri Zhirkov (Zenit) have both joined the club during the recent transfer window from Dynamo Moscow. Although unlikely to start, these two Russian international stars might be a surprising shot of instant offense if Zenit can get them in sync quickly enough to come off the bench. Renato Sanches (Benfica) is turning heads of late, including those in the Manchester United camp. Watch for the 18-year old’s flair and agility.

Deciding factor

Justin:
Nicolas Gaitan (Benfica) is truly the only player on this Benfica side that you have to gameplan for. He was their leading goal scorer in the Group and also their unquestioned playmaker. Look for Zenit to try and box the Argentine in an effort to cut off service to Jonas and Raul Jimenez. If they aren’t successful, Benfica has a real shot.

Alejandro: The Russian winter has stopped legendary general Napoleon and his troops in their tracks, derailed the German war machine in WWII, and also puts their domestic soccer season on pause for 3 months; which is the last time Zenit played a competitive match (although they do have 5 wins and 1 draw in friendlies). At this level of competition, that sort of time casts doubt on the readiness of this side.

Prediction

Justin:
Russia -- IN THE WINTER. Zenit go through by a goal.

Alejandro: This will be one of the more entertaining matchups to watch, but Zenit St. Petersburg takes it.

Gent vs. Wolfsburg

1st leg: 2/17 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/8 2:45 PM

Overview


Gent? Who the f**k are Gent?

This was Precisely the reaction from 95% of the football world who don't closely follow the Belgian Pro League. But much like Leicester City, Gent cultivated their own fairytale, reaching the group stage for the first time in their history and taking it a step further finishing runners-up. Yes, they did get lucky running into Valencia and Lyon, two traditional powers who are having disastrous seasons. Gent played the hand they were dealt to perfection and now will hope to keep the dream alive.

In their second ever Champions League appearance, Wolfsburg won Group B with 12 points, two ahead of PSV Eindhoven. Domestically, they have struggled to replace the departed Kevin De Bruyne, sitting in 8th place and losers of 3 of their past 5. All the pressure will be on the Germans as prohibitive favorites.

Players to watch

Justin:
Julian Draxler (Wolfsburg) was brought in as the obvious replacement for the departed Kevin De Bruyne. Though the move hasn’t translated to a ton of wins on the domestic front, his play was crucial in big games, especially against Manchester United. Don’t expect a flurry of goals from the German international. His game is defined by possession and creating chances for teammates, that will be imperative for Wolfsburg to advance.

Alejandro: Sven Kums (Gent) has had a solid campaign thus far in the Belgian Pro League, netting 11 goals and recording 6 assists along the way. The Gent captain will surely feel much of the pressure on his shoulders and he would not have it any other way. But former Swiss international Goalkeeper Diego Benaglio (Wolfsburg) is an imposing figure between the posts for the German squad which means this will be no easy affair for Gent.

Deciding factor

Justin:
Can Gent handle the pressure in a game of this magnitude? With the wide talent disparity between the two sides, it is all but certain that Wolfsburg will have the lion's share of possession. Running back-and-forth with few chances on goal can cause frustration to set in and players to step out of their roles. Staying focused and taking advantage of counter attacks are the only way for Gent to advance.

Alejandro: Gent has been a surging side in the Belgian Pro League, winning the League title and the Belgian Super Cup last season. However, their lack of Champions league experience may be their downfall.

Prediction

Justin:
Really wanted to pick Gent here, but it would be entirely out of selfish interest. Wolfsburg are more talented and have more experience. They advance, by a few goals.

Alejandro: Wolfsburg has been struggling recently and have fallen into 8th place in the German Bundesliga, but their domestic success in the last two seasons trumps their current faltering form. DESPITE THAT...IT WILL BE A SHOCKER BY….F***ING GENT?!?!?! The Belgian squad wins it and continues their Cinderella story.

Roma vs. Real Madrid  

1st leg: 2/17 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/8 2:45 PM

Overview


Both managers take center stage in this matchup, as Zinedine Zidane makes his UCL managerial debut, while Roma made a coaching change of their own, replacing Rudi Garcia with their one time manager Luciano Spalletti.

After winning Group A, Madrid are now pursuing a sixth successive quarter-final appearance. The ten-time European champions were also one of only two sides to progress undefeated from the group stage (Barcelona). Unfortunately, the Spanish club have lost their last 8 cup ties against Italian opposition, including once against a Roma side managed by you guessed it, Spalletti.

Roma are looking to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 2008 and come into the tie riding a wave of recent success. The Giallorossi have won their last 4 matches and have not been defeated in their last 13. New infusion of talent in the January transfer window has provided the offensive spark that was sorely needed (more on that later).

Players to watch

Justin: Just over a month and a half ago Stephan El Shaarawy (Roma) was in the footballing wilderness. He was on loan at Monaco and not making much of an impact. In fact, since his breakout season at Milan in '12/13, in which he scored 19 goals, he has appeared in 52 games, scoring a grand total of 7. Back in Italy on loan with Roma, he scored a sublime back-heel in his debut, and struck again in the 2-0 success at Sassuolo three days later. Nobody knows if it will last, but for the time being El Shaarawy has put a pulse back in a flat-lining season.

Alejandro: Radja Nainggolan (Roma) is almost as well known for his hairstyles as fellow Serie A calciatore (soccer player) Paul Pogba. However he is also known for his pace and physical marking. At the same time, any match in which Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) is playing, all eyes should be on him.

Deciding factor

Justin:
As long as he’s kicking and breathing, all eyes will be on Cristiano Ronaldo. Perceived to be having a down season by pundits who expect to see 50+ goals every year, Ronaldo has been just as deadly as ever. When combining goals + assists, Ronaldo’s (29) ranks 2nd to only Barcelona’s Luis Suarez in Europe’s top 5 leagues. With Gareth Bale out of the 1st leg and still a doubt even for the 2nd, the onus will be on the Portuguese to supply the goals to push Madrid through. 

Alejandro: With their old coach Luciano Spalletti at the helm, this is a talented Roma side that will make it a difficult match for any squad. Real Madrid is under new management as well, and the first Champions League match as manager for soccer icon Zinedine Zidane will be a true test of his skills from the sideline.

Prediction

Justin:
A couple of weeks ago this looked like a cake walk for Madrid, but Roma’s recent resurgence has planted some seeds of doubt. In the end, I still believe Madrid has too much firepower for the Romans to keep up. Madrid, by a few goals.

Alejandro: Madrid wins but that is by no means a certainty. The Roma midfield; with the likes of veteran Daniele De Rossi, Egyptian Mohamed Salah, and free kick maestro Miralem Pjanic to complement permanent goal-threat Edin Dzeko; will make this an exciting round.

Arsenal vs. Barcelona  


1st leg: 2/23 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/16 3:45 PM

Overview


Arsenal are hoping the third time's the charm, as Barcelona meet an English side in this stage of the competition for the 3rd consecutive year. The defending champions prevailed in the previous two editions and come into the tie as heavy favorites.

Winners of Group E, Luis Enrique's team are looking to reach the quarter-finals for the ninth consecutive season. They come in with possibly the 3 finest players in the world in Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar, who seize upon even the slimmest shrivel of space, burying goals you didn’t think were imaginable.

The gunners did what they always do -- reach the round of 16. It was the 16th consecutive time they have reached this stage, but they have failed to go beyond since 2010. They are the runner-up nobody wanted to draw, and with the talent at their disposal, they could very well upset anyone on their best day.

Players to watch

Justin:
While I admit that choosing someone from the MSN would be easy and deserved, I have decided to throw you a curveball. I already know what to expect from those guys, but their job is infinitely easier when Andres Iniesta (Barcelona) is on top of his game. As the unquestioned leader and captain of La Blaugrana, Iniesta serves as the brain of the team. He provides the canvas that allows his picassos to make masterpieces, and as long as he’s on his game, Barca are nearly unstoppable.

Alejandro: Mesut Ozil (Arsenal) has so many assists this season he helped write this article. The Gunners also have a stalwart at goal in Petr Cech to attempt and stop a Barcelona side that is nearly too good to describe in words. On the other side, Barcelona are scoring more than Wilt Chamberlain and MSN (Messi, Suarez, Neymar) are certainly every keeper’s worst nightmare.

Deciding factor

Justin:
I would be remissed if I did not at least mention the stellar play of Arsenal’s Mesut Ozil. His 17 assists are the most in Europe's top 5 leagues , and the 2nd place Angel Di Maria is way back with 11. His laser sharp cross to beat Leicester in the 95th minute was a thing of beauty, and is what makes Arsenal so dangerous from set pieces. Still, I think the deciding factor is health. With Barcelona chasing titles simultaneously on all three fronts, their depth will be pushed and recovery time limited. Any injury to a Neymar or Messi could provide the opening for a monumental upset.

Alejandro: The deciding factor in any match where Barcelona is involved will come from the Barcelona side. If any one cog of the MSN triumvirate has his scoring boots on it will be a very long day for Arsenal.

Prediction

Justin:
Messi, Suarez, and Neymar. Need I say more? Barca, by some obscene number.

Alejandro: Barcelona. 80-1, just to make a reasonable prediction...

Juventus vs. Bayern Munich  

1st leg: 2/23 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/16 2:45 PM

Overview

The headliner in the round of 16 features last year's runner-up and the team that hasn't quite been able to get over the hump. Juventus come in winners of 15 straight games domestically, after Saturday's dramatic triumph over Napoli. They qualified for the last 16 as Group D runners-up and have an incredible record at home, that includes only two defeats in their last 45 European home games, qualifiers included, going back to the start of the 2004/05 season.

So who were those two defeats to? Yup, none other than Bayern Munich.

On paper, Bayern are only rivaled by the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid in the talent department, but the cloud of Pep Guardiola’s summer exit is something to monitor. Bayern's back line is in shambles, as injuries to Javi Martinez, Holger Badstuber, and a lingering groin problem for Jerome Boateng will leave Paul Pogba and Paulo Dybala salivating. Still, Bayern’s command of the ball is some of the best on the continent, so chances for Juventus will be few and far between.

Players to watch

Justin:
Not many strikers in the world are more lethal than the big Lewandowski. The Polish hitman has 31 goals this season, including a brace in 4 of his last 5 games. Add Thomas Muller, and the dynamic duo have combined for 36 Bundesliga goals, the most ever for a strike duo 21 games into a season.                                                                                                                                 

Alejandro:
With so many incredible players gracing the pitch in this tie, it is nearly impossible to pick any one, two, or even three players to focus on. Gli Bianconeri (Juventus) have 22-year old French phenom Paul Pogba who is finally settling into his role as a world-class midfielder, and his hairstyle is certain to make a few headlines. Also, Argentine striker Paulo Dybala has brought consistency to the ability of finishing that Juventus sorely needed from an attacanti (attacker).

Deciding factor

Justin:
Death, taxes, and Gianluigi Buffon between the sticks for Juventus.  The gran capitano is in his 15th season in Turin, and at the age of 38, still remains one of the world's best. This tie will test him like few others and it is almost a certainty that Buffon will have to come up with some incredible saves.

Alejandro:
I agree with my counterpart’s choice of Gigi Buffon (Juventus) being a key factor given the depth of talent of Bayern Munich. Buffon’s opposite number Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich) is not one to let many balls get past him in goal. If the ball can get out of what is sure to be a clogged midfield, the keepers will decide this one.

Prediction

Justin:
Man, is this one tough or what? My brain is telling me Bayern, but my heart is crying for Juve. I think the injuries to Bayern’s back line are the difference. Juve, 3-3 on away goals.

Alejandro: Runners-up from last season’s Champions League final, Juventus has a chip on their shoulders, and with the recent run in the Serie A of 15 consecutive wins they will ride that wave all the way to victory over Bayern Munich. Juventus advances, 4-3 aggregate.

PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid  

1st leg: 2/24 2:45 PM / 2nd leg: 3/15 3:45 PM

Overview


PSV are back in the knockout rounds for the first time since 2006/07 and the only Dutch side to advance this far since. They sold their two best players this summer, including their best (Memphis Depay) to Manchester United. And yet, here they are, in the Round of 16 after beating Manchester United for second place in their group. They use an attacking 4-3-3 that is the staple of any great Dutch side, and are unlikely to change, even against a defensive juggernaut such as Atletico.

The Spaniards made Group C look easy, unbeaten in all three away games, en route to winning it with 13 points. This year's side is more complete and dynamic in the final third, balancing out a squad whose hard nosed style could begin to wear down its players. Although Atlético have lost all four two-legged ties they have contested with Dutch clubs, they go into it this time around as the favorites to advance.

Players to watch

Justin:
Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) is not only the best player in this tie, but he is also among the best in the world. The tricky attacking midfielder has been in tremendous form this season, leading the team in scoring with 19 goals, while also serving as his side's chief playmaker. Staunch defense is a given, but for Atleti to truly go far, Griezmann will have to perform at a very high level.

Alejandro: The Dutch Eredivisie leaders PSV Eindhoven are depending on their top man Luuk de Jong to put them on the scorecard against this strong Atletico team. With 17 goals in 21 league games, de Jong is who PSV fans bet the house on putting the ball in the net. Also, if things get out of hand, watch for PSV Colombian defender Santiago Arias to keep Atletico on their toes, with 4 yellow cards in as many Champions league games this season Arias is a no-nonsense fullback who will do what he can to keep the match on PSV’s terms.

Deciding factor

Justin:
Scoring chances against this Atletico side are about as abundant as me with Salma Hayek. Their clean sheet record this season is impeccable, but a moment of brilliance is still undefeated. Luuk de Jong (PSV) is a man who is more than capable of delivering the goods. Since arriving at the Dutch club in 2014, he has scored 37 times in 54 appearances. Look for him to be force fed the ball often in the hopes that he can create magic.

Alejandro: Atletico’s defensive prowess is unquestionable, coupled with Griezmann spearheading the attack and their experience in international competition this will be a difficult test for PSV.

Prediction

Justin:
Don’t underestimate this PSV side who are playing very well, but Atletico may be the most underrated team in the world. Atletico wins, 3-1 aggregate. 

Alejandro: Atletico wins this round. 4-2 aggregate.

Man City vs. Dynamo Kyiv  


1st leg: 2/24 2:45 PM. 2nd leg: 3/15 3:45 PM

Overview


Manchester City will be attempting to go through to their very first UCL quarter-final, as they make only their second ever trip to the Ukraine. Luckily, they finally avoided Barcelona by winning their group and get to play the away leg in an empty stadium. Advantage or disadvantage? Who knows, but at least they won't be on the receiving end of the racist chants being spouted by Vodka fueled shirtless men in 20 degree weather.

Group G runners-up Dynamo are competing in the last 16 for the first time since 1999/2000 – when coach Serhiy Rebrov was leading their attack. Rebrov's men are on a nine-match unbeaten home run in UEFA competition dating back to February 2014,  and have lost only two of their 12 previous home matches against English opposition (W4 D6 L2).

Players to watch

Justin:
It has been the same story with Andriy Yarmolenko (Dynamo) every transfer window since 2012, making the saga one of the longest in the game's history. He is constantly rumoured to be leaving, but every time he remains loyal and goes nowhere. Frankly, he is Dynamo's only shot. Without their home fans support and at a supreme deficit in the talent department, Yarmolenko will have to play out of his mind to keep them competitive. 

Alejandro: This skilled Manchester City side started the season in marvelous form but the rise of Premiership leaders Leicester City is one that NOBODY predicted. Coming off their 7th loss in the league to Tottenham Hotspur, the Sky Blues will need their leading goalscorer Sergio Aguero to be on top of his game.  

Deciding factor

Justin:
At least, if Sergio Agüero struggles, the team has other goalscorers. Vincent Kompany (Man City), on the other hand, has missed 13 of City's games so far this season, and his central defensive alternates have been downright dreadful. Nicolas Otamendi left his game somewhere in Valencia, and Martin Demichelis is older than my grandmother. In charge of the communication and organization of the back line, Kompany will be need to be locked in for City to advance.

Alejandro: Without the support of their hometown drunks...er excuse me...supporters*, Dynamo Kyiv must rely on willpower and determination alone against a much stronger (at least on paper) Manchester City side. But Manchester City is known as perennial disappointments, having never truly lived up to monumental expectations. If they can keep some cohesion on the pitch, they should be able to prevail against this Dynamo squad.

Prediction

Justin:
Really, really, really dislike the way Man City are playing. Their EPL title hopes are fading and their defense is still laughably bad. They’ve burned me before, but I still won’t quit them. City, 2-2 on away goals.

Alejandro: Manchester City, 5-1 aggregate. If Dynamo can keep City from doing a lot of damage in the first leg in Kiev, that will certainly make this more intriguing than it is currently slated to be.




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