Friday, February 5, 2016

Your Super Bowl 50 Primer


By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're finally here.

We have reached the last weekend of the NFL season, and what a long, strange trip it's been. Both of these teams got off to a hot start and never really looked back; they clinched the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences and then took care of business at home in the playoffs. Now we head to San(ta Clara) Francisco for all the marbles.

There are a ton of fun story lines for this Super Bowl, but we won't waste any time talking about them here, especially when we already spent way too much time earlier this week talking about them on our podcast. Here, we'll just worry about the x's and o's.

In our "By The Numbers" sections for these playoffs, we've been posting records (both straight up and against the spread) for how each team performs at home or on the road (depending on where the game is being played). Here, we've designated both teams as being "home." Historically speaking, teams playing on neutral fields perform closer to how they do at home than how they do on the road. I'm not sure why that is, but that's what I read somewhere. So there.

Denver vs. Carolina (6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Panthers by 4.5
Current Line: Panthers by 5.5

By The Numbers:

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th)

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

Thursday, February 4, 2016

The Over Thought Podcast: Over Thinking the Super Bowl


On this week's episode of The Over Thought Podcast, the gang tackles the Super Bowl and football at large.

How has Super Sunday become an unofficial holiday in the United States, and what are some cultural implications of both the game and NFL? Plus, some obligatory comparisons to religion and politics, along with putting Cam Newton and Peyton Manning into boxes days before their show down in Super Bowl 50.

Check out our latest episode below, and give us a "like" on Facebook for the latest content.

Bob Lobel: Sunday Seems Less than Super


By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Admit it, the spark isn’t there for Sunday. 

It's number 50, but it seems less than super. Maybe  we could increase interest if Donald Trump bought an ad, with his own money of course, to be live on the field for 60 seconds. That’s all the time he needs to make his point. 

He has lots of friends that are athletes, by the way, simply because he  gives them free golf. Nothing wrong with that.

Remember, he hired Flutie top be his quarterback in some league that nobody can remember existed. He loves Brady, and Manning too.

As for the game itself, why are people even picking Denver? That’s crazy. 

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

VIDEO: Best Friends Ragan and Cassidy Sign Letters of Intent at St. John's (Shrewsbury)

Sean Ragan (left) signed with Boston College Wednesday, alongside best friend Tim Cassidy (right), who signed with Bentley University.
By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Long-time teammates and best friends Sean Ragan and Tim Cassidy each capped National Signing Day Wednesday by signing their National Letters of Intent together.

Ragan will head to Boston College, while Cassidy is off to Bentley University in Waltham. For a complete story of signing day at St. John's (Shrewsbury), head over to ESPN Boston, and check out video of the two signees below.

Super Bowl 50 Prop Bet Gambling Extravaganza

The Sportsbook at the MGM Grand. The happiest place on Earth.
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Super Bowl Sunday is the greatest Sunday of the year for many reasons (closely edging Father's Day, which closely edges Mother's Day, which closely edges Arbor Day), but the greatest reason it's the greatest Sunday of the year is because it is the gambling capital of the year. No day sees more money placed on the line than Super Bowl Sunday.

We're here to break down all the great prop bets for the weekend - some you should bet on, some you shouldn't bet on, some you consider betting on, and some you should throw yourself in front of a god damn truck if you consider betting on. And just so we're clear, I've listed maybe 0.5% of the total prop bets in this post. There are literally hundreds of them. I tried to parse through the entire list but my ears started bleeding and I took that as a sign to stop. If you have further questions, reach out to me on Twitter and I'll tell you how much of a degenerate gambler you are.

Let's start with the old standby:

Player To Score First Touchdown

This is consistently my favorite prop bet every year. I usually win it by spreading smart money across two or three choices. This year, I'm going to give you just my best value bet, and my smart-money pick, but not before we go through all the choices.