We Need Sports Things to Talk About, So Let's Gamble on Football (if there is football)

In the middle of a contract dispute with the Cowboys, surely nobody would bet on Dak Prescott to win the MVP, would they?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

While there are certainly more important things happening now than a lack of sports, crawling along in a sports-less desert has made many fans thirsty for ANYTHING to argue about.

Look no further than ESPN's documentary series "The Last Dance," chronicling Michael Jordan's final season (and really, entire career) with the Chicago Bulls. A documentary like this would normally be very popular anyway, but it has absolutely taken over the sports social media world, and drawn millions of viewers each week.

Similarly, the WNBA and NFL Draft both had their best years, in terms of viewership, in their history, and several notable players have mainstream news made waves by changing squads during NFL free agency (maybe you've heard of that Brady guy?).

The dust has not totally settled, but with the draft complete, and the NFL seemingly intent on playing games without interruption, now seems like a perfect time to start some more debates and look at a few NFL futures bets.

Odds for the Super Bowl, MVP and division winners have been updated, and you can find all that information here, along with other NFL related news. There will be more updates up until NFL starts so take the current odds with a grain of salt. For the sake of this blog, I'm going to take a look at my favorite, and least favorite picks to win divisions, and the MVP.

So, which bets are my Stone Cold Locks of The Quarantine? Find out below.

Obligatory Peyton Manning-Tom Brady "Legacy" Blog

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Denver Broncos' relentless pass rush and play making secondary propelled them to Super Bowl 50 yesterday in an upset win over the visiting New England Patriots.

Or, as every other sports headline tells it: Peyton Manning defeated Tom Brady in the 17th meeting between two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

Manning will move onto his fourth Super Bowl, and will be the oldest quarterback to ever start on Super Sunday. Furthermore, he improved his record against Brady to 6-11, and has gone an even 5-5 against Tom Terrific in their last 10 meetings, including three postseason wins in a row against his nemesis.

Despite the overall record, Manning actually now leads the all-time postseason series 3-2, and hasn't lost to Brady in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

Who cares that this game was about far more than these two guys, as both defenses played lights out, let the quarterback debate rage on!

On one side, you have Tom Brady, with his four Super Bowl wins, two league MVPs and what I would call the greatest quarterback career résumé in NFL history.

On the other side, Peyton Manning and his league-record five MVPs, to go with numerous all-time passing records, now a winning postseason record against Brady and his one Super Bowl (hey, he might get another one).

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Well, Another AFC Shakeup

The Pittsburgh offense has been on a tear, but can they score on Denver's top-ranked defense?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Just when we thought the AFC couldn't get any weirder, it goes and does something like this.

One week after a shocking New England loss at home to Philadelphia sent the Patriots tumbling all the way down to the No. 3 seed, the Bengals and Broncos both suffered shocking home losses of their own (you could argue that Cincinnati's was slightly less shocking, but getting blown out and losing your starting quarterback to injury certainly qualifies as shocking).

And so, New England is back in the driver's seat in the AFC. Cincinnati's offense is thrown into a great deal of havoc without Andy Dalton, and Denver's offense is back to appearing eminently stoppable. Meanwhile, the two hottest teams in the conference are Kansas City and Pittsburgh, who have combined to win 11 of their last 12 games (four of five for Pittsburgh, seven straight for the Chiefs) and suddenly present two semi-realistic scenarios for an AFC team to win three straight road games and advance to the Super Bowl, an idea that seemed ludicrous a month ago. And somehow, the Jets are still in the mix (and entering this week, hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC).

And holy mother of god, does the entire AFC South need to be banished to the Arena League. The Colts sit at 6-7, with a scoring margin of -81 on the season, and STILL somehow hold the division lead. And the Jaguars are still mathematically alive. I need a drink.

The Appropriate Time to Run This Play

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Why do NFL coaches and executives lose their damn minds whenever they deal with Bill Belichick?

Whether it's John Harbaugh forgetting what constitutes an eligible receiver, the Seahawks operating under the paranoid suspicion that Belichick was perpetually on the verge of taping their practices during last year's Super Bowl week, or GMs sending away king's ransoms to New England to move up on draft day, some of the smartest people in football seem to make the dumbest decisions around the four-time Super Bowl champion coach.

Last night was no different, as the Colts, who had played far better than anyone predicted and trailed by just a single score, ran one of the worst plays in NFL history (pictured above) on fourth down.

Joe and Daphne's Preview: Our Playoff and Award Winner Picks

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

Daphne and I have already previewed each division in the NFL individually. So, if you'd like to look back at those to see your favorite team, check them out below, but now we're moving ahead with the big questions.

So, without further ado, here are the playoff and Award Winner picks from Joe and his less than six-month old pup.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC South

   
By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Daphne and I took a look at the NFC South last week, and we open this week previewing their AFC brethren. The AFC South boasts a Super Bowl contender and a bunch of teams searching for answers, as Andrew Luck's Colts hope to get over the top while Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville just hope to avoid the Top-5 of the draft next year.

Can Indianapolis make it to Super Sunday, and which of the South's up-and-coming teams has the best chance of breaking through in 2015? Daphne and I investigate.

Putting the Patriots' "Cheating" Into Perspective

Seriously, would this man (who doubles as the Emperor from Star Wars) do something dishonest like deflate footballs?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

I was shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to read last night that the NFL discovered the New England Patriots had deflated 11 of the 12 footballs used in the team's AFC Championship demolition of the Indianapolis Colts.

So far this morning, I have found people to be in three camps.

1. Of course the Pats cheated, that's what they do under Beli-cheat. HA!
2. The Pats totally didn't cheat. This is a class organization that does things the right way.
3. Who cares, they beat the Colts by 5,000 points. An extra 2 PSI in the football wouldn't change that.

The first two positions ignore the past history of the Patriots, who have obviously violated league rules before, but are far from the only team to do so. The third is a bit more defensible, but it seems to make the assertion that "if you cheat and blow out a team, we should just assume your cheating didn't affect the outcome because you won by so much."

That seems a bit intellectually dishonest though, because why then would a team cheat in the first place? Clearly they thought it would help them win.

So I think the proper response is to say that New England, given coach Bill Belichick's reputation for winning at all costs and getting creative with rule compliance, probably cheated.

Probably.

But we should also say that this was a minor offense and should be treated as such. There should be some discipline from the league, but talk of vacating New England's spot in the Super Bowl, and even the ridiculous cries for a rematch, are so far beyond a reasonable punishment for this particular crime.

A late round draft pick or two and a small fine should do the trick.

Now that we've established New England's probable "cheater, cheater pumpkin eater" status, let's tackle the conspiracy theory and chief excuse from Patriots fans: THE BALLS DEFLATED BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM INSIDE TO THE COLD OUTSIDE AT GAME TIME!

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Bob Lobel: Are the Patriots Super Bowl Bound?

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel) and Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

Ed. Note- Instead of his usual blog, this week Bob is simply offering his thoughts on the Patriots' upcoming AFC Championship Game against the visiting Indianapolis Colts. His buddy Andy Dougherty also breaks down the upcoming championship game here.

Be on the lookout for an in-depth preview of both championship games from editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello tomorrow.

Bob Lobel

This week has brought more recognition to our region than the Tea Party ever hoped to. 

It has surpassed the Brinks Robbery and the Great Molasses Flood. The Patriots are hosting another championship football game, one step away from another Super Bowl.

What Should Peyton Manning Do Now?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There will obviously be much discussion today about the future of Peyton Manning, following his lackluster performance in Denver's Divisional Round loss to Indianapolis.

It was also revealed today by ESPN's Adam Schefter that Manning had played the final month of the season with a torn quad, which makes sense to anybody who watched the Broncos, because Manning just did not look right at all down the stretch.

At the age of 38, and coming off a major injury and playoff disappointment, I don't have a clue what Peyton Manning will do, but I have some ideas about what he should do.

It would be somewhat fitting for Manning's final game to come against his old team, and in a "passing of the torch" game, no less, but there's also the possibility the old man comes back for one more shot at a title with the Broncos next season.

Those seem to be the two most likely options, but I'm here to tell you that, if Peyton wants to win another championship (basically the only reason he's still playing), he needs to borrow the strategies of another aging legendary quarterback, and those of a transcendent NBA superstar.

Obviously, I'm talking about Brett Favre and LeBron James.

AFC Divisional Weekend Preview

Time to bust out those stupid two-team jerseys Indy fans, your Colts are playing Peyton this week!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Four down, seven to go.

Jeremy swept his straight-up picks last week, Joe went 3-1. Both went 2-2 against the spread. (Jeremy had Carolina winning but Arizona covering. Joe had Arizona winning outright. Both nailed Baltimore and Indianapolis, but both though Dallas would cover against Detroit.)

With that said, there's a whole new slate of games this week, featuring four teams we saw last week and four teams we didn't. With the AFC slated to start first this weekend, we kick off our coverage with the opening game Saturday.

(Quick note - the "DVOA" stat in the "By The Numbers" section is the stat created by Football Outsiders to measure value on a per-play basis. Positive numbers means more points, so for Defensive DVOA, a negative score is better.)

Baltimore at New England (4:35 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Patriots by 7

By The Numbers:

Baltimore:
Record: 10-6 (7-8-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.6 (8th) - 18.9 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.7 (6th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.7% Offense (9th); -4.6% Defense (8th); +8.0% Special Teams (2nd); +22.2% Total (5th)

New England:
Record: 12-4 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 29.2 (4th) - 19.6 (8th)
Avergae Scoring Margin: +9.7 (1st) - 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +13.6% Offense (6th); -3.4% Defense (11th); +5.5% Special Teams (5th); +22.4% Total (4th)

AFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

The Ravens and Steelers rekindle one of the league's most physical rivalries Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy already provided you with an intro and all that good stuff in our NFC Wild Card preview, so let's skip the pleasantries and get right to previewing an AFC Wild Card weekend that includes a Steelers-Ravens rubber match and a shot at redemption for both Cincinnati and Indianapolis. 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Steelers by 3.5

By The Numbers:

Baltimore:
Record: 10-6 (7-8-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.6 (8th) - 18.9 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.7 (6th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.7% Offense (9th); -4.6% Defense (8th); +8.0% Special Teams (2nd); +22.2% Total (5th)

Pittsburgh:
Record: 11-5 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 27.2 (7th) - 23.0 (18th)
Average Scoring Margin: +4.2 (10th) - 9.6 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +22.5% Offense (2nd); +11.3% Defense (30th), +0.9% Special Teams (12th); +12.1% Total (8th)

Lobel's Question of the Week: Would You Sign Ray Rice?

Every week, legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel wants to hear your opinion on something that caught his eye over the weekend.

Though the Patriots and teams like the Broncos have found ways to run the ball with castoffs, undrafted free agents and unheralded homegrown talent, there are teams in the playoff hunt that could use some help at running back.

Teams like the Indianapolis Colts, who are relying on first-round bust Trent Richardson to carry the ball, or the Arizona Cardinals, who have seen Andre Ellington's ineffectiveness amplified by the absence of starting quarterback Carson Palmer.

Those are just two of many teams within striking distance of the postseason that may be interested in a talented and experienced running back. Luckily for them, one is available.

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Year Of The Favorite?

The Broncos have been favored by over a touchdown (6.5 points or higher) a league-high seven times in nine games. More impressively, the perennial big favorites have covered in five of those seven contests.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During last week's intro, we mentioned that what we once thought would be the Year of The Underdog turned out to, well, not be. The eight-week stretch running from Week 3 through Week 10 saw favorites go 55-45-2, but it was mostly incremental - going 7-6 or 8-7 in a given week.

Well, last week blew the doors open. Favorites were a jarring 10-3 against the spread, will all three underdog covers coming early - Thursday night (Cleveland) and two 1 o'clock Sunday games (the Jets and San Francisco), and all three underdogs won outright. That means that starting with the late games on Sunday, favorites swept, going 5-0, an absolute disaster for Vegas (the most bets/money always comes in on the 4:25 national game, the Sunday night game, and Monday night, and the public always prefers favorites).

Is there an overreaction this week? Maybe. There are some pretty big spreads (two over 10 points), and several between relatively even teams that you might expect to fall in the 3-5 point range, but instead see favorites laying a touchdown.

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 3-10
Season: 68-77-2
Home Dogs, Last Week: 1-3
Home Dogs, Season: 17-25-1

Game(s) of The Week:

Buffalo @ Miami (8:30 p.m. Thursday, NFL Network)

This might be our first official "Loser Leaves Town" game of the year. With the Patriots rolling, neither team is likely to win the division, and with the entire AFC North still competitive, plus the Chiefs and Chargers, being 5-5 through 11 weeks probably isn't good enough. Whoever wins will end up at 6-4 and still be in the thick of it.

Bob Lobel: Good or Bad Luck

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

It’s less than a week away and already the NFL is dominating the conversation and consciousness of the fans that care about things that matter. 

It's lucky us that most things about the Patriots matter. 

Now, most  things about the Indianapolis Colts are pure luck. Next Sunday night the NFL brings an even  bigger event than Brady-Manning.. Our luck is  Brady-Luck. I don’t know why, but this has infinite more appeal to me than that Denver game.  Ho hum! 

This is about the present, soon be the past, and the present, soon to be the future. That’s where we are. 

NFL Week 2 Primer (With Picks): The Year of the Underdog?

Underdogs like Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins were inordinately successful in week one. We explain why that trend may continue throughout the season.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Week 1 is in the books. The lesson is always "don't overreact to Week 1." If you're good at this whole picks thing, just stick to your guns from Week 1. That's what we did last year - after getting creamed in Week 1 (Jeremy was 5-10-1, Joe was 6-9-1), we just rolled it all back and turned it around Week 2 (Jeremy was 9-6-1, Joe was 10-5-1). Vegas overreacted, we didn't. And it worked for us.

Everyone comes into the year with a few preconceived notions, and a few of those get challenged in Week 1. If you thought the Rams would be able to survive without Sam Bradford, you got a rude awakening. If you thought the Panthers would regress horribly and Tampa Bay would pick up some of that slack in the NFC South, you might have left Week 1 pretty confused. If you thought the Patriots and Saints were potential 13-3 juggernauts (gulp), you might be scrambling to re-calibrate. But we preach caution. Don't completely change up your strategy based on 60 minutes of football. There's plenty more to come.

There is one trend that's worth keeping an eye on, which Bill Simmons actually covered in his 2014 Gambling Preview, but it came into light in Week 1 - last year, favorites covered an inordinate amount of spreads (52.2 percent, the third-highest number in the last 25 years, according to the Sporting News). But, in the years following inordinately successful favorites, the lines swing the other way, and favorites cover just 47 percent of spreads. The last two times favorites covered more than 52.2 percent (last year's figure), the following seasons saw swings of 13.2 percent (from 57.8 in 2005 to 44.6 in 2006) and 6.4 percent (from 52.9 in 1998 to 46.5 percent in 1999).

So what happened in Week 1? Underdogs went 11-5 against the spread. Hmmmmm....

NFL Week 1 Primer (With Picks)

It's an interception! No, it's a touchdown! Who cares, football is back, starting with Green Bay making its return to Seattle for the first time since the "Fail Mary" tonight.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

It's here, you guys.

It's finally here.

It took eight months, but meaningful football games are back, and they're here to stay (through February).

I feel like I say it every year, but I have never been so excited for football season. It might actually be true - maybe every successive football season is more anticipated than the last. There are so many things to be excited about, starting with anywhere from five to seven potential juggernaut teams sprinkled throughout the league (Denver, New England, Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay, and possibly Philadelphia and San Francisco, depending on how optimistic you are).

Former playoff teams like Houston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore could all bounce back in a big way. San Diego and Chicago have emerged as sleepers with high-octane offenses. Carolina and Kansas City look to hold on to the success that they found last year. Cleveland, Minnesota, and Jacksonville all have new first-round quarterbacks who could see substantial playing time this year. And in case you didn't notice, I just named more than half the league, every division is represented, and there's plenty of more excitement to be had for the teams I didn't mention.

Football, baby. Football.

Game(s) of The Week

Green Bay @ Seattle (8:30 p.m. Thursday, NBC)

As per usual, opening night features the defending Super Bowl champion squaring off with a high-profile foe. You forget it now, but the Ravens were, in fact, the defending Super Bowl champions on opening night last year. On only two occasions has the defending champion lost on opening night, and on only one occasion has the home team lost (the Ravens as defending champions lost on the road in Denver when a scheduling conflict with the Orioles forced the game out of Baltimore; the Giants in 2012 lost at home to Dallas). That might tip the scales towards Seattle, but more on that later.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC South

Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the division. But can he stay upright long enough for the Colts to take advantage?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC South was a joke last season. They had the worst cumulative record (24-40) of any division in football. In fact, it was the worst cumulative record of any division from any year since the 2008 NFC West (22-42).

It was a weird season. The Colts beat each of the three best teams in football (Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco), then lost to the Rams and Cardinals by a combined 59 points. The Texans went 2-14, but five of those losses came by three points or less, and they under-performed their expected record (based on point differential) by a full two wins. The Jaguars went 4-12, but three of those wins came against the other crap teams in the division (two against Houston, one against Tennessee), and the other came against Cleveland. And none of the wins were by more than a touchdown. They lost their first eight games by an average of 22.5 points. That's some world-class suck. The Titans were your generic average team. They beat the crap teams and lost to the good teams. The only really surprising result was beating the Chargers.

The division should improve this year top to bottom. The two divisions they played last year were the AFC West and NFC West, far and away the two best divisions in football. The four teams in the AFC South played the four hardest schedules in the AFC (Houston played the hardest, then Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee). This year, they'll play the NFC East (which could under-whelm again), and AFC North (ditto), offering an easier path towards respectability.

Tim Tebow, Michael Sam, Tony Dungy and the NFL's "Distraction" Issue

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

I love when people leave comments on our site.

Really, I do. It gives me such joy that people take even 20 seconds to either express their agreement with my view or, more commonly, tell me I'm an idiot. 

These comments are usually reserved for my high school power rankings and all star teams, but every now and then somebody will take issue with something I say on a national sports story. When I wrote my blog on Tony Dungy I fully expected it to be one of those kinds of posts.

The issue of gay athletes seems to get people riled up on both sides, and is certainly something that is going to be in the news for much of the foreseeable future.

Now, with these comments, I usually just respond with a couple of sentences in the comments section, but this particular remark, I believe, represents the beliefs of a very large group of the American sports fan population.

If you don't feel like going back and reading the comment in my Dungy blog, I have pasted it below.

Tony Dungy Should Just Own His Homophobia Already

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In the least shocking incident of the NFL off-season, football moral compass and former Bucs/Colts head coach Tony Dungy publicly stated that he wouldn't have selected Michael Sam, the first openly gay player in the history of the NFL Draft.

I say least shocking because, if you know anything about Tony Dungy, you know he is a devout Christian who has spoken out in favor of a Gay Marriage ban in Indiana, and taken President Barack Obama to task, albeit briefly, on Twitter for "veering from the Biblical interpretation" of marriage.

Here is Dungy's exact quote on Sam.

“I wouldn’t have taken him,’’ Dungy told the Tampa Tribune. “Not because I don’t believe Michael Sam should have a chance to play, but I wouldn’t want to deal with all of it. It’s not going to be totally smooth . . . things will happen.’’

That's all fine and dandy. The former Super Bowl winning coach is entitled to his faith and his views. This is America, after all.

My issue is that a man who used to occupy what is essentially a hiring position (NFL head coach) outright said he wouldn't hire someone because they are a minority… And we take that as a "stance."