NFL Conference Championship Primer (With Picks): Top Seeds Advance

Patrick Mahomes has enjoyed a magical first year starting for Kansas City, but come on. He isn't gonna beat Tom Freakin' Brady in the AFC Championship Game, is he?... Is he?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Well, last weekend went according to script.

All four home teams won. Three of them covered. Two of them covered comfortably.

Joe went 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread (picking the Colts to cover against Kansas City). Jeremy went 3-1 straight up (missing that same KC-Indy game), 2-2 against the spread (also missing on New Orleans), bringing our records for this postseason to 5-3 (5-3) for Jeremy and 5-3 (7-1) for Joe.

[It remains incredibly perplexing that Joe went 1-3 straight up in the Wild Card round but somehow went 4-0 against the spread.]

These four teams advancing to this round seems appropriate. It really seems like these four teams were just better than everyone else this year, kind of like that year where all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament (the Derrick Rose on Memphis, Tyler Hansbrough on North Carolina, Kevin Love on UCLA, Mario Chalmers & Co. on Kansas year). I suppose you can make an argument that Chicago and the Chargers were in that conversation as well, but based on how those teams played in the playoffs, probably not.

Both of the games this weekend are rematches. In the AFC, this week's road team won the first matchup, but they won it at home. In the NFC, this week's home team won the first tilt, and they're at home here again (in large part because of that win). Both games represent the old vs. the new(ish).

The Saints and Patriots represent The Old Guard of their respective conferences - coaches that have been with the organization for over a decade; former Super Bowl champions; future Hall of Fame quarterbacks that attended college in a different century. The Chiefs and Rams are the new. Young, vibrant quarterbacks with upside to potentially match or exceed the ability of their older counterparts; teams that haven't reached the Super Bowl in decades; teams itching to make a name for themselves.

Let's not waste any more time.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Opening Line: Saints by 3.5
Current Line: Saints by 3

By The Numbers:

Los Angeles:
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Road; 7-7-2 Against the Spread, 4-4 Road
Average Score: 32.9 (2nd) - 24.0 (20th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.9 (3rd); 10.9 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st), +0.8% Defense (18th), -0.2% Special Teams (17th); +23.7% Overall (2nd)

New Orleans: 
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Home; 10-6 Against the Spread, 4-4 Home
Average Score: 31.5 (3rd) - 22.1 (14th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (1st); 11.2 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.9% Offense (4th), -3.1% Defense (11th), +1.7% Special Teams (9th); +20.7% Overall (4th)

NFL Week 6 Primer (With Picks): Still Confusing As All Hell

Is Ben Roethlisberger done? And, considering how flawed every other team is, does it matter?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Quick, we're going to list eight teams, and you try to tell us what order they belong in, in terms of their average scoring margin so far this year. Ready? Here they are:

Patriots, Steelers, Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars, Cowboys, Lions, Saints. Go.

Here's how they actually stack up, with their scoring margin and their overall league rank:

1. Jaguars (+11.2, 1st)
2. Chiefs (+10.6, 2nd)
3. Lions (+5.2, 6th)
4. Saints (+3.8, 9th)
5. Steelers (+2.0, 14th)
6. Patriots (+1.2, 15th)
7. Raiders (-0.2, 20th)
8. Cowboys (-1.4, 22nd)

How did you do? Probably nowhere close.

What the deuce is going on in the NFL this year? Outside of the Chiefs, are there any teams that are actually, you know, good?

If you were ranking all 32 teams on the scale of "if I had to bet my life on an NFL team to make the playoffs, I'd put them in this order," what would your list look like? Kansas City first, most likely, and then what? After last night, Philadelphia might be No. 2, and then maybe Atlanta? Green Bay? New England? Even all of those teams have serious flaws.

We feel like this has been a theme well-tread in this space over the last few weeks, so we promise we'll try to branch out in the coming weeks. But, like, while we're here, we might as well get our money's worth, right? Here are some crazy but confirmed facts about the 2017 NFL season, through five weeks:

NFL Week 1 Primer (With Picks): It Begins

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers host Seattle in one of week one's premier matchups.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Week 1 is upon us. It officially kicked off last night when the Patriots blew out Kansas City by an absurd score of 77-6 and Tom Brady threw for a record nine touchdowns and ran for two more, including one while running backwards. (Jeremy wrote this part before the game kicked off so he's just going with what he saw in his dream Wednesday night.)

[Late Thursday/Early Friday update from Jeremy: Woof.]

Yesterday, we posted our Always-Way-Too-Long NFL Preview, which covers many of the things you need to know (but way more things that you don't really need to know) entering this season.

The first few weeks of picks can usually be tough, except if you're Jeremy and go 13-2-1 against the spread in Week 1 in 2015 (it really happened). Both of us had the Patriots giving 8.5 Thursday, which didn't really go too well. Although if you own Kareem Hunt and Mike Gillislee in your fantasy league, last night was probably boatloads of fun. With that said, please allow your correspondents to offer the following sage advice about how to approach the first few weeks of the season:

The Semi-Official, Overly-Exhaustive, Probably-Incorrect NFL Preview

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

[Extremely Andy Williams Voice]

It's beginning to look a lot like football.

We made it, folks. It only took us seven months, yet another Cavs-Dubs NBA Finals, a total solar eclipse, the death of Chuck Berry, The Oscars almost screwing up the Best Picture winner, O.J. Simpson's release from prison, and a devastating hurricane in east Texas, but we made it.

Football season is finally here.

In this space you'll find some bold predictions, some predictions less bold, some picks, some extensive thoughts, and some thoughts not extensive enough. Let's just start here...

Some Predictions That Probably Could Be Bolder, But We Want To Ease Our Way Into It

NFL Week 1 Primer (With Picks): Welcome Back Football, We've Missed You

The Patriots trade in one beautiful quarterback for another...

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Football is back. It's almost like it never left.

We opened the season exactly where we left off in February, with Denver using a stellar pass rush to overcome some maybe-not-so-quietly-bad quarterback play and upset Carolina.

There's a lot to look forward to this football season, like the return of a few All-Pro receivers (Kelvin Benjamin, Jordy Nelson), two new rookie quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft (Jared Goff, Carson Wentz), the emergence of a few potential young stars (too many to count), and, well, for those of you who chose to ignore the Brady/Manning debate and opted to hate both of them, you're blessed with four consecutive weeks in which NEITHER of them play for the first time since Bill Clinton was President.

Unfortunately, there's also a lot to dread this football season, like another year's worth of played-out DeflateGate stories (and probably a lot of insufferable memes, too), Patriots fans whining that the league railroaded them (they're not wrong), everyone else whining that Patriots fans are insufferable (they're not wrong, either), the potential that both highly-touted rookie quarterbacks might not be that good, and, well, every game that features the NFC East.

All that being said, I can't think of a single person who would say that the bad outweighs the good. Except maybe a Browns fan, but even Cleveland is probably still riding high from the NBA Finals. Things are looking up, pretty much everywhere.

Let's get started.

Jeremy's Anything Is Possible NFL Preview

This guy isn't going to win the Super Bowl again. I think.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Football season is back!

Just like last year, I'm running through all 32 teams and offering three potential paths for their season. One has the glass half-full (or, really, the glass full-full), one has the glass half-empty (or, well, the glass all-empty), and one last path that I deem the most realistic, and hence will serve as my nominal "prediction" for that team.

I stayed mostly vague in terms of playoff results in the realistic sections. The reason for that is that I find most pre-season predictions to be largely stupid. Looking at the landscape of the league, the NFC is incredibly top-heavy (Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, Green Bay) but then a whole bunch of riff-raff (it was hard to talk myself into anyone at all taking the last playoff spot in the NFC). Meanwhile, the AFC really only has one truly great team (New England), followed by maybe nine different teams that seem to have a reasonable-or-better chance at grabbing a playoff spot (Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver, Indianapolis, Oakland, Buffalo, New York). But, each of those teams have obvious flaws that are likely to be exposed in the playoffs (which we'll talk about in their respective sections).

Here's where my complaint comes in - when you're picking a Super Bowl winner, you're really picking the team most likely to REACH the Super Bowl. There's no way to reasonably project what teams will look like in five months, so saying "I like Carolina to win the Super Bowl because I think they'd beat Cincinnati" is just stupid. Once you're in the Super Bowl, it's effectively a coin-flip. As such, the most logical pick is to take the team that has the biggest gap between them and the rest of the conference, and that team seems to be New England. They're the team most likely to win the Super Bowl, if only because they're the team most likely to reach the Super Bowl (unless you're convinced that each of the top four teams in the NFC is better than them, which I find dubious).

NFL Week 17 Primer (With Picks): The Long And Winding Road

Teddy Bridgewater's Vikings and Aaron Rodger's Packers will close out the regular season at Lambeau Field with the NFC North title on the line.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Well, it's been fun.

Week 16 kicked our collective ass. It was by far our worst week of the year, which followed what was Joe's best week (12-2-2 in Week 15 - Jeremy's best week was a 13-2-1 Week 1 that he's been riding ever since). Luckily, we both currently sit more than 16 games above .500, so even a catastrophic winless end to the season would leave us better than a coinflip for the year, so we're excited about that.

It's been a weird year.

There are 32 teams in the league, but only 12 are rated as above average by Pro Football Reference. It means there are a lot of really, really good teams, a lot of bad teams, and a few really, really bad teams, but no "slightly-above-average" teams. The middle class in the NFL largely disappeared this year. It's populated by St. Louis, Buffalo, Oakland, and, well, that's about it.

There's just an enormous gap between the top six AFC teams (New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New York, Pittsburgh) and everyone else, just like there's an enormous gap between the top five in the NFC (Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Seattle, Minnesota) and everyone else. It drops straight from "teams with a semi-realistic chance or better to at least reach their conference championship game" to "outright garbage who doesn't belong in the playoffs, even a little bit."

It's a little bizarre.

The six NFC Playoff teams have already been decided. But the seedings have not. Let's run through them now (I'm not going to get into what happens if two teams tie this week - I refuse to do it):

NFL Week 16 Primer (With Picks): Just the Picks, Yo

Tom Brady and the Patriots can lock up home field advantage this weekend against the rival Jets, but New York will be hungry for a win to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We just finished up Christmas and we've got New Year's coming up quickly, so I'm not going to bore you with much other than our picks.

Sure, the AFC is still a jumbled mess, and it's possible than an 11-5 Broncos or Jets team misses the postseason, but things should shake out nicely once the weekend is finished.

Let's not waste any more time, here are our games of the week and picks.

Game(s) of the Week

New England at New York Jets (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

The Patriots will be looking to lock up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, while the Jets are just hoping to keep pace in the crowded AFC Wild Card race. These games are, seemingly, always close (assuming there are no butt fumbles), and both teams have something to play for. Should be fun.

Jeremy's Best- and/or Worst-Case NFL Preview

Tom Brady is back, but can the Patriots repeat?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

I’ve been slacking lately. Usually, I contribute extensively to the NFL preview. This year, I’ve contributed, in the words of Matt Foley, a cup filled to the brim with jack squat.

I don’t really have an excuse. I’ve been listless, lazy, and lacking inspiration. But I’m forcing myself to write an NFL preview. Because that’s what writers do. Because I’m listless, lazy, and lacking inspiration, I’m not really going to write anything of substance. But because I’m verbose and long-winded, this somehow runs over 7,000 words. However, each team will be nice and bold for you, so that if you want, you can just scroll until you find your favorite team and skip the rest.

Let’s be honest here - anything that I would possibly write that involves any type of analysis has probably already been published by someone far smarter, and anything that I would write that would be interesting to read has probably already been published by someone far more talented. And I say “probably” because I really haven’t read anything over the last month. Hell, the only reason I know what team all the free agents ended up on is because I’ve been doing research for my fantasy teams. I’m really just flying by the seat of my pants here.

Joe and Daphne's Preview: Our Playoff and Award Winner Picks

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

Daphne and I have already previewed each division in the NFL individually. So, if you'd like to look back at those to see your favorite team, check them out below, but now we're moving ahead with the big questions.

So, without further ado, here are the playoff and Award Winner picks from Joe and his less than six-month old pup.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The NFC East

Us working hard on these NFL previews.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Monday we took an in-depth look at the AFC East, and today we turn our sights to the NFC East where Dallas, Philadelphia and New York all have legitimate playoff hopes, but also questions to answer in the early days of training camp.

The division is still the home of reigning rushing champion DeMarco Murray, but the 1,800-yard rusher has taken his talents from Big D to Philly, where offensive guru Chip Kelly has had one of the most interesting off-seasons in recent memory. The Giants are also in a period of transition, as they welcome back Victor Cruz to play next to instant star Odell Beckham Jr. at receiver, and bring in former Patriots running back Shane Vereen to make life even easier for Eli Manning.

One thing that hasn't changed: Robert Griffin III and Jay Gruden are still paired and probably hating each other. How will this confrontational relationship between quarterback and coach work out for Washington this season? If you know the recent history of this franchise, I think you can guess.

Without further ado, here are our thoughts on the NFC East.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC East

Daphne: "Release me vile human!"

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Welcome to our first NFL preview of the summer! My pup and I are happy to have you. Over the next several weeks we will be taking a look at every division in the league, along with making playoff and award predictions.

We begin today with the AFC East, a division owned by the New England Patriots, or, more specifically, quarterback Tom Brady, who has won the division in all but one of his healthy seasons since taking over as the Patriots' starter in mid-2001. That's 12 division titles in Brady's 13 seasons, if you're curious, with the Patriots winning the division 12 times overall in that 14 year span.

In that time, only one other quarterback has won the AFC East: The immortal Chad Pennington, who went 7-2 as a starter for the 2002 Jets, and led the Dolphins to a division crown during Brady's injury lost season of 2008.

Unfortunately, Chad Pennington ain't walking through that door for anybody in the division.

Still, the AFC East could be better and deeper than it has been in years, thanks to some suddenly salty defenses. But, will the division's traditional also-rans get enough out of their quarterbacks to capitalize on their stellar defensive fronts? Daphne and I examine.

Long And Suite Preview: The Playoffs And Super Bowl

The Seahawks got the better of Denver in last year's Big Game. But who will be there this year?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Let's just pick up where we left off yesterday, with our top-six teams from each conference.

Joe's Picks:

AFC

1. Denver (13-3)
2. New England (12-4)
3. Indianapolis (10-6)
4. Pittsburgh (10-6)
5. Kansas City (9-7)
6. Cincinnati (9-7)

NFC

1. Green Bay (12-4)
2. Seattle (11-5)
3. New Orleans (11-5)
4. Philadelphia (11-5)
5. San Francisco (10-6)
6. Chicago (9-7)

Jeremy's Picks:

AFC

1. New England (12-4)
2. Denver (12-4)
3. Pittsburgh (10-6)
4. Indianapolis (10-6)
5. Cincinnati (10-6)
6. San Diego (10-6)

NFC

1. New Orleans (13-3)
2. Green Bay (13-3)
3. Seattle (13-3)
4. Philadelphia (9-7)
5. San Francisco (11-5)
6. Chicago (10-6)

And here's how we get from these twelve teams, down to one Super Bowl Champion.

Long And Suite Preview: The NFC

Both of our experts are unusually optimistic about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this year.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're just gonna blow through these quickly - just post our picks for how each division will finish, what each team's record will be, and how the playoff seedings stack up. The heavy analysis as to how and why those things will come about will be in tomorrow's full-season preview. This is just quick and dirty picks. First will be each division's order of finish. The second section will have each team's record (and a pick for each team's respective over/under). The third section will be our top six teams.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC

Can Peyton Manning lead the Broncos back atop the AFC?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're just gonna blow through these quickly - just post our picks for how each division will finish, what each team's record will be, and how the playoff seedings stack up. The heavy analysis as to how and why those things will come about will be in tomorrow's full-season preview. This is just quick and dirty picks. First will be each division's order of finish. The second section will have each team's record (and a pick for each team's respective over/under). The third section will be our top six teams.

Long And Suite Preview: The NFC East

The Cheerleaders might be the only appealing part of Dallas' season in 2014.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The NFC East. All the prestige. None of the results.

The failures of the blue bloods of the NFC North can at least be explained by injuries - Aaron Rodgers, the entire Chicago defense - the NFC East doesn't really have an excuse. They were just bad.

The Cowboys continued their annual tradition of entering Week 17 with an opportunity to win their division. But for the third straight year, against the third different opponent in three years, the Cowboys lost, awarding their opponent the NFC East title. So if you believe in destiny, the Redskins will be the 2014 NFC East champions - they're the ones with the fortune of playing the Cowboys (at home) in Week 17.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC West

Can the Broncos make it back to the Super Bowl?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC West was the only division to send three teams to the playoffs this past season. That might have more to say about the overall quality of the conference, rather than the overall quality of the division, but even adjusted for strength of schedule, the AFC West was the third-best division in football last year. Here are all eight division, ranked by average SRS:

NFC West: 7.92
NFC South: 3.12
AFC West: 3.05
AFC East: -1.05
AFC North: -1.98
NFC East: -3.38
NFC North: -3.85
AFC South: -3.88

Most of the league's good teams were clustered in those three divisions at the top. This year, with the NFC North expected to improve dramatically, and the AFC North and AFC South expected to improve marginally, it's unlikely that there will be such a large disparity between the best division and the worst division. That means it's unlikely that the AFC West will get three teams back to the playoffs.

The Patriots are almost certain to win the AFC East, and the Broncos are almost certain to win the AFC West. The Colts are probably safe in the AFC South, if not as the division winner, then as a wild card. When you throw in the AFC North winner, whoever that may be, you end up with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (two of those three), Houston, Kansas City, San Diego, and possibly even Miami or another surprise team (New York? Tennessee?) fighting for two spots. Both of them going to the West again seems far-fetched.

Long And Suite Preview: The NFC North

Jared Allen and Julius Peppers both changed teams this summer. But they both stayed in the division. Which one will have a bigger impact? And will it lead to a division title?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Would you have guessed that the NFC North was tied for the 2nd-worst cumulative record of any division in the league last year (only the AFC South was worse)? Would you believe that the division had the worst cumulative SRS score in the entire league? Would you believe that they were the only division in football to have all four teams post a negative SRS?

It seems improbable that a division with so many blue-blood teams would go belly up like that, but it did.

Granted, there were some extenuating circumstances. The Packers were 6-2 when Aaron Rodgers played all four quarters. They were 2-5-1 when he didn't. They had three different backup quarterbacks start in a span of four weeks, including the was-somehow-still-employed Seneca Wallace. The Bears, long known for stellar defenses, suffered a rash of injuries on that side of the ball and saw the entire unit fall into a tailspin. The Lions, for the umpteenth year in a row, couldn't find much success running the ball and couldn't find a reliable second receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson. And the Vikings, well, they started Josh Freeman for a game. That really sums up their season.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC South

Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the division. But can he stay upright long enough for the Colts to take advantage?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC South was a joke last season. They had the worst cumulative record (24-40) of any division in football. In fact, it was the worst cumulative record of any division from any year since the 2008 NFC West (22-42).

It was a weird season. The Colts beat each of the three best teams in football (Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco), then lost to the Rams and Cardinals by a combined 59 points. The Texans went 2-14, but five of those losses came by three points or less, and they under-performed their expected record (based on point differential) by a full two wins. The Jaguars went 4-12, but three of those wins came against the other crap teams in the division (two against Houston, one against Tennessee), and the other came against Cleveland. And none of the wins were by more than a touchdown. They lost their first eight games by an average of 22.5 points. That's some world-class suck. The Titans were your generic average team. They beat the crap teams and lost to the good teams. The only really surprising result was beating the Chargers.

The division should improve this year top to bottom. The two divisions they played last year were the AFC West and NFC West, far and away the two best divisions in football. The four teams in the AFC South played the four hardest schedules in the AFC (Houston played the hardest, then Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee). This year, they'll play the NFC East (which could under-whelm again), and AFC North (ditto), offering an easier path towards respectability.

Long And Suite Preview: The NFC West

Russell Wilson is poised to lead the Seahawks on another Super Bowl run.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There is one common thread in the NFC West: Defense. Each of these four teams has a potentially elite defense - some of them have already established themselves as such (Seattle, San Francisco), others have been at that level without anyone really noticing (Arizona), and one has several budding superstars that could coalesce to be the best unit of the bunch (St. Louis). For the divisions playing the NFC West this year (the AFC West and NFC East), they'd better bring a lunch, because it's going to be a long fight.

The top of the division is a two-team race between the usual suspects: Seattle and San Francisco. The title very well could come down to scheduling. Both teams play the AFC West, but Seattle gets the Broncos at home. San Francisco has to travel to Denver for their matchup. As the first place team from a year ago, Seattle has the good fortune to play against Carolina (who will almost certainly take a step back from their NFC South Division Title last year), while San Francisco has to go on the road to play New Orleans, the second-place team from the South a year ago. This seems to point to Seattle being the favorite (and this is born out in Seattle's steeper odds for the division title), but as we've seen in recent years, especially in this division - weird stuff happens.