NFL Conference Championship Primer (With Picks): Top Seeds Advance

Patrick Mahomes has enjoyed a magical first year starting for Kansas City, but come on. He isn't gonna beat Tom Freakin' Brady in the AFC Championship Game, is he?... Is he?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Well, last weekend went according to script.

All four home teams won. Three of them covered. Two of them covered comfortably.

Joe went 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread (picking the Colts to cover against Kansas City). Jeremy went 3-1 straight up (missing that same KC-Indy game), 2-2 against the spread (also missing on New Orleans), bringing our records for this postseason to 5-3 (5-3) for Jeremy and 5-3 (7-1) for Joe.

[It remains incredibly perplexing that Joe went 1-3 straight up in the Wild Card round but somehow went 4-0 against the spread.]

These four teams advancing to this round seems appropriate. It really seems like these four teams were just better than everyone else this year, kind of like that year where all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament (the Derrick Rose on Memphis, Tyler Hansbrough on North Carolina, Kevin Love on UCLA, Mario Chalmers & Co. on Kansas year). I suppose you can make an argument that Chicago and the Chargers were in that conversation as well, but based on how those teams played in the playoffs, probably not.

Both of the games this weekend are rematches. In the AFC, this week's road team won the first matchup, but they won it at home. In the NFC, this week's home team won the first tilt, and they're at home here again (in large part because of that win). Both games represent the old vs. the new(ish).

The Saints and Patriots represent The Old Guard of their respective conferences - coaches that have been with the organization for over a decade; former Super Bowl champions; future Hall of Fame quarterbacks that attended college in a different century. The Chiefs and Rams are the new. Young, vibrant quarterbacks with upside to potentially match or exceed the ability of their older counterparts; teams that haven't reached the Super Bowl in decades; teams itching to make a name for themselves.

Let's not waste any more time.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Opening Line: Saints by 3.5
Current Line: Saints by 3

By The Numbers:

Los Angeles:
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Road; 7-7-2 Against the Spread, 4-4 Road
Average Score: 32.9 (2nd) - 24.0 (20th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.9 (3rd); 10.9 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st), +0.8% Defense (18th), -0.2% Special Teams (17th); +23.7% Overall (2nd)

New Orleans: 
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Home; 10-6 Against the Spread, 4-4 Home
Average Score: 31.5 (3rd) - 22.1 (14th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (1st); 11.2 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.9% Offense (4th), -3.1% Defense (11th), +1.7% Special Teams (9th); +20.7% Overall (4th)

NFL Divisional Weekend Primer (With Picks): The Favorites Arrive

Is this the year Philip Rivers and the Chargers finally break through to the Super Bowl? And, so, like, are all the people in San Diego rooting for them?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In the divisional weekend, we saw a surprise three road teams win, and almost saw a road sweep. In fact, all four road teams covered the spread (the Cowboys closed favored by two and a half). Four especially close games benefited those of us who bet on underdogs, which was both of us. Joe went just 1-3 straight up (correctly picking Indianapolis), but somehow ended up 4-0 against the spread. Jeremy was 2-2 straight up (hitting both AFC games, missing both NFC games), and went 3-1 against the spread (only Chicago let him down).

This season really saw the cream rise to the top, however, so we're probably in store for a few more lopsided games this weekend. Last week's biggest line was Chicago favored by six; both NFC games opened with higher lines, and both AFC lines are larger than any of the other lines from last weekend.

As with last weekend, we'll dive into the numbers for each team, focus on a few key players and statistical trends, and picking each game by score, which will also serve as our picks against the spread. Let's get to it.

Wild Card Weekend Primer (With Picks): Close Games Expected

Andrew Luck and Eric Ebron are primed to potentially pull an upset in the first game of the weekend.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, we dropped the ball a little bit.

With all of the hectic traveling and revelry around the holidays, we forgot to actually write down our picks the last two weeks and publish them in this space. In lieu of that, we just texted each other our picks and used the honor system. Joe held a six-game lead entering Week 17 and the way our picks lined up, we didn't disagree on six games. So Joe technically clinched the season win in Week 16. This is his fifth win in six years.

It was the worst showing in the six years of picking head to head for both players. Jeremy finished 115-132-9, and Joe finished 121-126-9. Cumulatively, for the six-year history, Joe holds a 20-game lead (760-722-56 to 740-742-56).

Historically, however, Jeremy has taken home the postseason crown, winning all six years picking against the spread (Joe has won two years picking playoff games heads up). So we'll see if Joe can finally take down the postseason title.

We're going a bit more in-depth for the playoff games, as we always do. In the "By the Numbers" section preceding each game, we'll list each teams DVOA ratings for the season. DVOA is a stat developed by Football Outsiders designed to measure each team on a per-play basis, adjusting for down, distance, time, and score. For example, gaining six yards on 3rd-and-5 is more valuable than gaining 11 yards on 3rd-and-12. Furthermore, it's easier to convert a 3rd-and-5 from your own 20 yard line when you're down by 28 points early in the fourth quarter than it is to convert that same 3rd-and-5 at the opponent's 10 yard line when you're down by four points with a minute remaining. DVOA adjusts for all of these things to some extent. DVOA is represented as a percentage better or worse than average, so good offenses will have positive scores and good defenses will have negative scores.

Here we go.

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Showdown of Your Heroes

After the craziest play of the season, the Dolphins are looking to prove they can string some wins together, while the Patriots are looking to bounce back against a desperate Pittsburgh team.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy's Patriots and Joe's Steelers square off this week, and while we've made plans to meet up and watch the game, we're not exactly feeling that great about our respective hometown teams after this past weekend.

Both teams need the win. The Patriots need a win to be a single game behind Kansas City and the Chargers, putting them in a position to potentially steal the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC on tiebreakers. That seems especially important for them this year, considering they're 6-0 at home and 3-4 on the road, with those losses coming against the Lions, Jaguars, Titans, and Dolphins. The Steelers need a win to simply stop the bleeding - they've lost three straight and suddenly hold only a half-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North, and a half-game lead over teams like the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins for what would end up being the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. That all doesn't even include the Broncos and Browns, who are still somehow very much alive.

Jeremy picked up some ground last week, going 9-7 overall and 4-2 on disagreements (and is like, actually kinda mad about not pulling the trigger on Miami and San Francisco and Indianapolis like he wanted to). Joe dipped back below .500 on the year, but still holds a six game lead. He also took the Thursday game this week - Jeremy didn't have faith in the Chargers with the injuries that they're piling up, but they were able to pull it out anyway.

Now for the rest of the Week 15 picks (including two Saturday games!)

NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): One Final Power Poll

Todd Gurley doesn't care about covering the spread or your fantasy team, but he's got the Rams in pole position in the NFC.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

As we enter the final quarter of the NFL season, with all teams having played 75 percent of their schedule, we unleash our final regular season power poll. We've included movement since the last power poll, which came in Week 9, and we'll break down all the ins and outs and the end.

Quite Simply Not Good At Anything

32. Oakland Raiders (-1)
31. San Francisco 49ers (-2)
30. Arizona Cardinals (0)

The Nicest Truck Stop Port-o-John In All Of Rural Indiana

29. Buffalo Bills (+3)

The Generically Bad Teams

28. New York Jets (-7)
27. Detroit Lions (-4)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0)
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
24. Cincinnati Bengals (-8)

The Good Bad Teams

NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Hunt Out In Kansas City

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

As you've probably heard by now, the Kansas City Chiefs have released star running back Kareem Hunt after video footage of him assaulting a woman in a Cleveland hotel back in February. It's a rather staggering move by the Chiefs. The last time something like this happened - with Ray Rice in Baltimore - the player in question was coming off the worst season of his career and looked like he was probably on his way out of the league in short order anyway. It's not like Baltimore had a ton to lose by cutting him. They were 8-8 the year before, and the decision came in September, so the team had a few months to figure out their running back situation (it turns out they didn't need to, as Justin Forsett blossomed into an every-down back).

The situation in Kansas City is wildly different. By any measure, Hunt is one of the best handful of running backs in the league, and the Chiefs are in the middle of the chase for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with just five games remaining. This is a major shakeup that could end up having huge playoff or even Super Bowl implications.

It does, however, bring up some interesting questions.

For one - it's yet another instance of TMZ, and somehow not the NFL having access to video footage of an altercation involving an NFL player. Right off that bat, that's concerning. The NFL released a statement, effectively saying that they asked about the video and the hotel in question said their policy was to share it only with law enforcement. So the league has some cover there, but it's still not a great look.

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): Halfway Point Power Poll

These two guys are pretty good at quarterback-ing.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Just like we did following Week 5, we're going to use this space to break down the league into tiers and try to make sense of where each team stands. For fun, I also included a breakdown of how much each team moved, so you can laugh about how wrong we were a month ago.

NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): Where Are The Good Teams?

Adam Thielen is undeniably good, but are the Vikings? Is anybody in the league really good outside the Top-3 or 4? Uh, we're not sure.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

How many teams in the league do you implicitly trust right now?

By our count, there's four, and only four.

The Rams, the Saints, the Chiefs, and the Patriots. That's it.

The Chargers have a decent record, but have played one of the league's easiest schedules (25th in the league according to Football Outsiders). Baltimore has the league's third-best scoring margin, but have squandered three winnable games. There's a cluster of teams in the NFC with only two losses (Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, and Green Bay), but their scoring margins still hover barely above zero and have struggled to put away bad teams (Carolina barely beat the Giants, Minnesota lost to Buffalo, the Packers let the 49ers hang around, Washington lost to the Colts).

Two of the AFC's strongest teams last year - Pittsburgh and Jacksonville - can't seem to get out of their own way and each have a unit (Pittsburgh's defense and Jacksonville's offense) that just isn't up to par for what a contending team needs.

It's only Week 8. There are usually more than just four teams that you can hang your hat on. Seven teams won 11 games or more last year. Same for 2016 and 2015. There were nine of them in both 2014 and 2013. Who are they this year? Do we think the Ravens can finish 7-2 with teams like Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Los Angeles remaining on their schedule? What about Minnesota, who still has to play New Orleans, Green Bay, New England, and Chicago twice? Pittsburgh still has to play Baltimore, Carolina, the Chargers, New England, and New Orleans. Do we want to start taking Houston seriously, now that they've won five straight and shellacked Miami on Thursday night? Or do we still not buy it after they lost to the Giants and only beat Indianapolis and Buffalo by a combined 10 points?

As we stand now, it seems like maybe we should only trust those top four teams and just lean towards the underdogs when these second-tier teams match up against each other. Underdogs are seven games over .500 on the season based on data from covers.com, so maybe the idea has some legs.

NFL Week 7 Primer (With Picks): Just The Picks, Ma'am - Just The Picks

Drew Brees and the explosive Saints offense will take on Baltimore's shutdown defense in one of the biggest matchups of the weekend.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy is tired. He's spent this week watching the Red Sox win the pennant rather than trying to come up with something interesting to write in this here preview part of the weekly picks. So we're skipping the preview. Like, basically all of it - you're reading the preview right now.

We put together a slightly more respectable week last week. We agreed on 12 picks and went 6-5-1 (a winning record!). We disagreed on just three picks last week, and Joe took home winners with the Jets and 49ers, while Jeremy won by a half-point with the Chiefs. Entering Week 7, Joe currently sits 12 games under .500, so he only needs to be one game better than a standard issue coin per week over the rest of the season (plus another single game here or there) to get back on the winning side. Jeremy has an uphill battle - he's 20 games worse than average. He's pretty embarrassed about it. Let's just get to the picks.

NFL Week 6 Primer (With Picks): The Best Offense Is A Good Offense

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Scoring is at an all-time high in the NFL right now.

26 of the 32 teams in the league are averaging north of 20 points per game. The Bengals are averaging over 30 points per game through five weeks, a number that doesn't even land them on the podium. They currently stand fourth behind the Saints (36.0 per game), Chiefs (35.0 per game), and Rams (34.6 per game). The Saints have the 28th-ranked scoring defense yet somehow have the league's fifth-best scoring margin. We've reached a point in the league, with all the modifications to how the officials call illegal contact, pass interference, and roughing the passer, where having a great defense doesn't really matter anymore. Simply out-racing your opponent to 40 points is a perfectly legitimate way to win football games in 2018.

Last week, the Chiefs and Jaguars faced off, the league's No.1 scoring offense (entering the week) versus the league's No. 1 scoring defense (ditto). If this game were happening in the 1970s, everyone would assume Jacksonville would steamroll Kansas City (the whole "defense beats offense" thing). That's not how football works anymore, though. The pendulum has swung clearly in the direction of offenses. Kansas City won easily.

NFL Conference Championship Primer (With Picks): 52 Around the Corner

The Jaguars and Vikings defenses are getting all the pub, but don't sleep on this swarming Eagles unit.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Well, Sunday was exciting, wasn't it? After two relative duds on Saturday (Atlanta-Philadelphia was close and vaguely exciting, but poorly played and not all that entertaining) with some spotty officiating (as a Patriots fan, I can tell you that the Titans (a) got shafted on a few calls, and (b) still weren't going to win anyway), Sunday was an absolute barn-burner, with a shootout early with some spectacular plays (Pittsburgh scored on two deep bombs, both on 4th down!) and one of the most spectacular finishes in NFL playoff history in the late game (I still have no idea what Marcus Williams was doing on that play).

That all leaves us with New England (expected), Jacksonville (unexpected), Minnesota (expected) and Philadelphia (relatively unexpected) left, fighting for two spots in the Super Bowl. Our favorites are (understandably) New England and Minnesota, but just last week we saw Jacksonville pull off a big upset and we saw Philadelphia grind out an ugly, low-scoring game. Both of those things happening again are certainly within the realm of possibility.

AFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): Big Favorites

The immortal Blake Bortles will look for the biggest win of his young career this Sunday in Pittsburgh.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, the AFC Wild Card round went about as expected. Andy Reid and the Chiefs went all Andy Reid And The Chiefs and blew an exceedingly winnable game against an inferior opponent, and Jacksonville held the Bills to 263 yards of total offense and three points.

The good news is, now we get two competent football teams that are unlikely to (a) blow an 18-point lead to a 9-7 team that had a negative scoring margin on the season and/or (b) score just three points.

The bad news is, well, we still have to watch Tennessee and Jacksonville for at least another week.

We talked about how the Wild Card round went gambling-wise in the NFC intro, but suffice it to say, it didn't really go well and we don't want to repeat it here. You can peruse the NFC Primer if you want the gory details. Here's our take on the AFC games.

NFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): The Road To Minnesota Runs Through... Minnesota?

This is the second time we're using Case Keenum as the image for an NFL Primer this season... What is happening?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The divisional round of the playoffs kick off with the NFC this weekend, and things are a bit weird. During the last few weeks of the regular season, Jeremy openly pined for all-out chaos in the NFC, and, well, he kind of got it.

In the first round, we saw Atlanta upset Los Angeles and the Saints win a shootout over the Panthers, leaving us with a No. 6 seed favored on the road against the conference's No. 1 seed, plus a matchup of two division winners that feature (perhaps) the best offense in the league going up against the best defense in the league. Football statisticians at Football Outsiders say the Saints-Vikings game is (roughly) a 60-40 proposition in favor of Minnesota, and actually have Philadelphia as more likely to advance than Atlanta, despite disagreements in Las Vegas.

The NFC seems wide-open, especially when compared to the AFC, where both home top seeds are favored by more than a touchdown. Obviously Atlanta has an uphill battle - they would need to win two road games to advance - but they're still very much alive.

With Philadelphia somewhat of a question mark without Carson Wentz, one would have to say that Minnesota is now the favorite in the NFC. This is especially good for them, considering (you may have heard) the Super Bowl is being played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis this year. If Minnesota advances that far, they'd be the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, which seems like it would be an advantage. Until further notice, I think we have to assume it's the most likely outcome.

NFC Wild Card Primer (With Picks): Mostly Just The South

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've already previewed the AFC Wild Card games, so let's dispense with the pleasantries and skip the lengthy introductions: Here is what we think of both NFC Wild Card games, which include three teams from the NFC South.

Atlanta at Los Angeles (8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

Opening Line: Rams by 5
Current Line: Rams by 5.5

By the Numbers:

AFC Wild Card Primer (With Picks): New Kids On The Block

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC Playoffs are the first to kick off this weekend, and they're bringing a lot of new blood to the party. The Titans, Jaguars, and Bills have each fell short of the postseason for a whole bunch of years in a row. The Titans have missed the playoffs in each of the last eight seasons, the Jaguars have missed the playoffs in each of the last nine seasons, and the Bills have missed the playoffs in each of the last seventeen seasons. Sure, the Patriots and Steelers are perennial juggernauts, and the Chiefs have made the playoffs in now four of their five seasons under Andy Reid, but it'll be nice to see if teams like Tennessee and Jacksonville can take the next step with their young quarterbacks, and the Bills ending the league's longest playoff drought is nothing but a great story.

Both AFC Wild Card lines have rather large spreads, which is to be expected when a 9-7 team with a negative scoring margin on the season goes on the road against a team that saw more than half of their wins come by double-digits. We just happen to be having that twice in one weekend.

Before we dive into the AFC lines, just a little housekeeping:

NFL Week 17 Primer (With Picks): It All Comes Down to This (For Now)

The fate of Tennessee, and our yearly pick'em challenge, could rest on the arm (and legs) of Titans QB Marcus Mariota.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Normally, this is the place where Jeremy would wax poetic about how close he and I are in our annual pick'em challenge (this is Joe, btw). Heck, he'd probably even give you playoff/bye/homefield clinching scenarios for everybody before we got into the picks.

But Jeremy is on the road, so I'm gonna give you the short version:

We've done our pick'em challenge for five years now, and I always win. It's always close, but I always win. This whole season I was winning, until Jeremy jumped back in front by a single game last week, but have no fear, I will win again. I'm 4-0 headed for 5-0, my friends.

Jeremy will then point out that I keep winning by such a small margin that it is statistically insignificant, and that neither of us is good enough to pick games for a living, but so what? I'm gonna win. Calling my shot.

(Jeremy's Note: If you notice the records at the bottom of this page, we enter Week 17 at a tie, despite the fact that I, Jeremy, hold a one-game lead on "disagreements." That's because through a fluke of lines moving, we ended up disagreeing on New England's Week 5 win over Tampa Bay - Jeremy took the Bucs at +5.5, but then after Gronk was ruled out later in the day, Joe took the Patriots at -4, and the final margin saw the Patriots win by 5. So, we're technically tied, but also technically, I technically hold a one game lead.)

Anyways, about that whole playoff thing- Here's a lightning round.

NFL Week 16 Primer (With Picks): The Holidays Cometh

Did we just witness a changing of the guard in the NFC West last week?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Happy Holidays, everyone.

Week 16 is upon us, which means some clinching scenarios are in play. Here are the least complicated ones:

1. New England and/or Pittsburgh clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Jacksonville loss
2. Jacksonville clinches the AFC South with a win or a Tennessee loss.
3. Kansas City clinches the AFC West with a win or a Chargers loss
4. Philadelphia clinches the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or Minnesota loss
5. The Rams clinch the NFC West with a win or Seattle loss
6. New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with a win, and then clinches the NFC South with a Carolina loss
7. Carolina clinches a playoff berth with a win (can't clinch the NFC South this week)
8. Atlanta clinches a playoff berth with a win

That means any team you didn't see here either (a) can't really clinch anything of consequence this week, or (b) has a scenario convoluted enough that it's not worth mentioning, or (c) both. Like, Minnesota has already clinched the NFC North, and can clinch a first-round bye if a few things go right, but who really cares?

NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): The Wild NFC

Even Case Keenum can't believe that Case Keenum is, like, good this year. What is going on in the NFC?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, uh, the NFC is kind of interesting.

We have two 10-win teams in Philadelphia and Minnesota. We have two 9-win teams in New Orleans and Los Angeles. And we have three 8-win teams in Atlanta, Carolina, and Seattle. Also, Dallas, Detroit, and Green Bay still have a reasonable outside chance to sneak in as the 6-seed.

(Technically, Washington and Arizona are also still alive, but they would need to (a) win out, and (b) see pretty much every team listed above lose in every game that wasn't against each other, so let's ignore them for now.)

Have we been here before? It seems like every year the NFC just becomes an all-out fustercluck in the final month of the season. Atlanta took a huge step forward with their win over New Orleans last night, but they might end up with the short stick in the NFC South because of their schedule (they have to play both Carolina and New Orleans in the final two weeks, whereas Carolina and New Orleans play each other but then each also play the 4-8 Bucs).

Seattle also took a huge step forward on Sunday night, not only posting a statement win against the conference's best team, but also clawing their way a game closer to the Rams, and giving themselves what could end up being a valuable tiebreaker, seeding-wise, if some weird stuff happens between now and Christmas.

Football Outsiders each week simulates the remainder of the season 50,000 times, using their statistical models to rate each team. Entering this week (so, not including Thursday's result), their projections were as follows:

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Let's Talk About The MVP

Jared Goff isn't really an MVP candidate, is he? IS HE?!?!

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've danced around the subject of the NFL MVP in this space a few times, but let's take a minute to really dive into it.

Over the last 20 years or so, the MVP has gone to a quarterback, unless one specific running back had an absolutely ridiculous season (like, setting a touchdown record, or rushing for 2,000+ yards). The last time it went to a player at any other position was 1986, when Lawrence Taylor won it. So, historically speaking, the pool is pretty small.

Plus, it really only goes to a running back when (a) none of the quarterbacks really stand out, but then also (b) one of the running backs stands out A LOT. So, putting that in the context of this season, we can say that none of this year's running backs really project to surpass some never-before-seen barrier.

Like, Kareem Hunt is on pace for roughly 1,400 rushing yards, 600 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. Le'Veon Bell, entering this week, was on pace for slightly better numbers in yardage. So the odds of somebody reaching 2,000 rushing yards, or even approaching Chris Johnson's record of 2,500+ yards from scrimmage in 2009 is slim to none.

So, let's work under the assumption that the MVP will be a quarterback.

When the MVP is a quarterback, it's for one of the following reasons:

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): Who Do You Trust?

We've been comfortable betting against the Niners this year, but what will we do this week with them battling another dumpster fire in the New York Giants? Oh, and San Fran has a handsome new QB as well... Though he probably won't play.   Photo by our buddy David Lombardi.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

At some point over the weekend (I'm not sure anyone can pinpoint precisely when, and, if they can, I kind of feel sorry for them, but that's not the point right now), we reached the exact halfway point of the NFL season. By the end of Monday night, we were decidedly into the second half of the season, with Green Bay and Detroit each getting their 8th game of the year under their belt.

As such, it's perhaps fitting that we feel like there are 17 teams, barely more than half the league, that we feel like we can trust (whether it's trusting a good team to be good, or trusting a bad team to be bad).

We trust Philadelphia, New England, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, New Orleans, Jacksonville and the Rams to be some degree of "good," and we're usually willing to lay points with them (within reason, obviously). We trust San Francisco, the Giants, and Cleveland to be bad, and we're not betting on them unless we really, really like the price. We trust the Jets, Bears, and Colts to be bad teams that aren't quite as bad as everyone seems to think, and willing to trust them as underdogs, and we trust the Bills, Raiders, Seahawks, and Cowboys to be good teams that aren't quite as good as people seem to think, and are very happy to buy underdogs with inflated lines.

The other 15 teams in the league (Miami, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Houston, the Chargers, Denver, Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Arizona) we're still trying to figure out, and our opinion seems to change from week to week. Our biggest challenge in the coming weeks is trying to handicap games when two of these teams play each other. And if the teams we think we trust start to falter, well, then, we're screwed.

It seems to be going well so far, though. Joe is currently 9 games above .500 for the season, and while Jeremy is hovering just below average, he went 9-3-1 last week, so maybe his season is turning around. 

Here are the Week 10 picks.