NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): Where Are The Good Teams?

Adam Thielen is undeniably good, but are the Vikings? Is anybody in the league really good outside the Top-3 or 4? Uh, we're not sure.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

How many teams in the league do you implicitly trust right now?

By our count, there's four, and only four.

The Rams, the Saints, the Chiefs, and the Patriots. That's it.

The Chargers have a decent record, but have played one of the league's easiest schedules (25th in the league according to Football Outsiders). Baltimore has the league's third-best scoring margin, but have squandered three winnable games. There's a cluster of teams in the NFC with only two losses (Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, and Green Bay), but their scoring margins still hover barely above zero and have struggled to put away bad teams (Carolina barely beat the Giants, Minnesota lost to Buffalo, the Packers let the 49ers hang around, Washington lost to the Colts).

Two of the AFC's strongest teams last year - Pittsburgh and Jacksonville - can't seem to get out of their own way and each have a unit (Pittsburgh's defense and Jacksonville's offense) that just isn't up to par for what a contending team needs.

It's only Week 8. There are usually more than just four teams that you can hang your hat on. Seven teams won 11 games or more last year. Same for 2016 and 2015. There were nine of them in both 2014 and 2013. Who are they this year? Do we think the Ravens can finish 7-2 with teams like Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Los Angeles remaining on their schedule? What about Minnesota, who still has to play New Orleans, Green Bay, New England, and Chicago twice? Pittsburgh still has to play Baltimore, Carolina, the Chargers, New England, and New Orleans. Do we want to start taking Houston seriously, now that they've won five straight and shellacked Miami on Thursday night? Or do we still not buy it after they lost to the Giants and only beat Indianapolis and Buffalo by a combined 10 points?

As we stand now, it seems like maybe we should only trust those top four teams and just lean towards the underdogs when these second-tier teams match up against each other. Underdogs are seven games over .500 on the season based on data from covers.com, so maybe the idea has some legs.

NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks): Decision Points

Don't look now, but the Dolphins are 2-0, and Ryan Tannehill has won nine of his last 10 starts dating back to 2016...

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, Week 1 gives us our initial impressions, then we overreact in Week 2, based on Week 1. It happens every year. It's like clockwork. Week 3, though, is where the real money is on the table.

What do you do when Week 1 and Week 2 give you wildly different pictures of a team? Take, for example, the Colts and the Redskins. The Colts lost at home Week 1, but it was a reasonably close game. Washington dominated Arizona in Week 1 on the road. Naturally, Washington was favored for their head-to-head matchup last week, but Indianapolis won the game outright (and in reasonably convincing fashion). So, now we have four teams that we need to re-evaluate.

Are the Bengals better than we thought? Maybe they are after they handed Baltimore a thorough butt-whoopin'. Are the Cardinals worse than we thought? Almost certainly, after they couldn't even cross midfield against the Rams. But as for the Colts and Redskins themselves, Week 2 gave us a different picture than Week 1 did. The same can be said for teams like San Francisco, the Chargers, Chicago, Dallas, and even New England.

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Let's Talk About The MVP

Jared Goff isn't really an MVP candidate, is he? IS HE?!?!

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've danced around the subject of the NFL MVP in this space a few times, but let's take a minute to really dive into it.

Over the last 20 years or so, the MVP has gone to a quarterback, unless one specific running back had an absolutely ridiculous season (like, setting a touchdown record, or rushing for 2,000+ yards). The last time it went to a player at any other position was 1986, when Lawrence Taylor won it. So, historically speaking, the pool is pretty small.

Plus, it really only goes to a running back when (a) none of the quarterbacks really stand out, but then also (b) one of the running backs stands out A LOT. So, putting that in the context of this season, we can say that none of this year's running backs really project to surpass some never-before-seen barrier.

Like, Kareem Hunt is on pace for roughly 1,400 rushing yards, 600 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. Le'Veon Bell, entering this week, was on pace for slightly better numbers in yardage. So the odds of somebody reaching 2,000 rushing yards, or even approaching Chris Johnson's record of 2,500+ yards from scrimmage in 2009 is slim to none.

So, let's work under the assumption that the MVP will be a quarterback.

When the MVP is a quarterback, it's for one of the following reasons:

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): Who Do You Trust?

We've been comfortable betting against the Niners this year, but what will we do this week with them battling another dumpster fire in the New York Giants? Oh, and San Fran has a handsome new QB as well... Though he probably won't play.   Photo by our buddy David Lombardi.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

At some point over the weekend (I'm not sure anyone can pinpoint precisely when, and, if they can, I kind of feel sorry for them, but that's not the point right now), we reached the exact halfway point of the NFL season. By the end of Monday night, we were decidedly into the second half of the season, with Green Bay and Detroit each getting their 8th game of the year under their belt.

As such, it's perhaps fitting that we feel like there are 17 teams, barely more than half the league, that we feel like we can trust (whether it's trusting a good team to be good, or trusting a bad team to be bad).

We trust Philadelphia, New England, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, New Orleans, Jacksonville and the Rams to be some degree of "good," and we're usually willing to lay points with them (within reason, obviously). We trust San Francisco, the Giants, and Cleveland to be bad, and we're not betting on them unless we really, really like the price. We trust the Jets, Bears, and Colts to be bad teams that aren't quite as bad as everyone seems to think, and willing to trust them as underdogs, and we trust the Bills, Raiders, Seahawks, and Cowboys to be good teams that aren't quite as good as people seem to think, and are very happy to buy underdogs with inflated lines.

The other 15 teams in the league (Miami, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Houston, the Chargers, Denver, Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Arizona) we're still trying to figure out, and our opinion seems to change from week to week. Our biggest challenge in the coming weeks is trying to handicap games when two of these teams play each other. And if the teams we think we trust start to falter, well, then, we're screwed.

It seems to be going well so far, though. Joe is currently 9 games above .500 for the season, and while Jeremy is hovering just below average, he went 9-3-1 last week, so maybe his season is turning around. 

Here are the Week 10 picks.

NFL Week 5 Primer (With Picks): Where Have All The Favorites Gone?

Buffalo is... Good? Kansas City is the best team in football? What is happening!?!?

  By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Consider this: The New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Oakland Raiders - six teams that were a combined 71-24-1 last season - have started this season just 14-10 overall, and a staggering 10-14 against the spread.

What happened to the top end of the league? Are we really ready for a world where the Kansas City Chiefs are *unquestionably* the best team in football? That's a little weird, right? The two most important people involved in a football team are the head coach and the quarterback. For Kansas City, those two people are Andy Reid and Alex Smith, who are best described with a non-committal shoulder shrug.

Reid has a stellar record in the regular season (a .608 winning percentage, a top-20 figure among post-merger coaches) but is just 11-12 lifetime in the postseason, and has made the Super Bowl just once, despite making the playoffs in 12 different seasons. His 12 postseason losses are the 4th-most ever. Sure, Tom Landry and Don Shula are 1st and 2nd on that list, but those guys had a boatload of postseason wins and Super Bowl appearances between them.

Alex Smith, meanwhile, has been the quarterback you want if you're just looking for someone to not screw up, and run an efficient unit that does the bare minimum in order to win a reasonable amount of games. But he's not a playmaker. He never has been.

NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Moving Day

High fives all around if you thought the Chiefs would be 8-3 heading into Atlanta this week.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Week 13 is moving day for a lot of reasons. It's the last week of most fantasy league regular seasons, it's the last week of byes for NFL teams, and there are still 14 teams currently not in first place in their respective divisions that still have a realistic (one-in-five or better) chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders.

This week, there are no fewer than nine games where a win for either team would dramatically improve their chances at making the playoffs or affecting their playoff seeding. That's nine of the fifteen games this week (including Thursday night's Dallas-Minnesota game). The most notable ones are included below in the Game(s) of The Week, but even games like Detroit-New Orleans are low-key pretty important in the grand scheme of things.

There's only one "irrelevant" game this week - that's San Francisco at Chicago. Every other game could end up giving a team a leg up or costing them a playoff spot depending on if they take care of business or not. When tiebreakers become a big deal in a few weeks (and you can already fiddle around with a few of them using ESPN's Playoff Machine), we may be able to point to some of these Week 13 games as turning points.

Game(s) of The Week

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Well, Another AFC Shakeup

The Pittsburgh offense has been on a tear, but can they score on Denver's top-ranked defense?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Just when we thought the AFC couldn't get any weirder, it goes and does something like this.

One week after a shocking New England loss at home to Philadelphia sent the Patriots tumbling all the way down to the No. 3 seed, the Bengals and Broncos both suffered shocking home losses of their own (you could argue that Cincinnati's was slightly less shocking, but getting blown out and losing your starting quarterback to injury certainly qualifies as shocking).

And so, New England is back in the driver's seat in the AFC. Cincinnati's offense is thrown into a great deal of havoc without Andy Dalton, and Denver's offense is back to appearing eminently stoppable. Meanwhile, the two hottest teams in the conference are Kansas City and Pittsburgh, who have combined to win 11 of their last 12 games (four of five for Pittsburgh, seven straight for the Chiefs) and suddenly present two semi-realistic scenarios for an AFC team to win three straight road games and advance to the Super Bowl, an idea that seemed ludicrous a month ago. And somehow, the Jets are still in the mix (and entering this week, hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC).

And holy mother of god, does the entire AFC South need to be banished to the Arena League. The Colts sit at 6-7, with a scoring margin of -81 on the season, and STILL somehow hold the division lead. And the Jaguars are still mathematically alive. I need a drink.

NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): Playoff Shakeup

The Jets are known for their running game, but Brandon Marshall has given them a lethal downfield threat this year, racking up over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air all ready. The Jets will need another win Sunday to keep pace in the AFC playoff race.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Last week, eight road favorites won outright. There was only one home favorite that lost, and it shook up a good portion of the AFC Playoff picture.

Of the six teams that entered Week 13 with a playoff spot, five of them now occupy a different seed (or no seed at all). The only team that saw no movement is the 5th-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (who, given their remaining schedule, seem locked into that seed). The Patriots lost, dropping them from No. 1 to No. 3. Denver and Cincinnati each got a bump, putting them into the Round 1 bye slots. Houston lost, and fell out of the picture, overtaken by Indianapolis and the Jets. Pittsburgh and Buffalo kept pace, and remain still in the hunt.

The Patriots loss also shook up the NFC East - Philadelphia moved into a three-way tie atop the division thanks to losses by both Washington and the Giants. Washington holds the tiebreaker, but Philadelphia is the only team that plays at home this week. A win would move them into first with a Washington loss.

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): Halfway Done

Can Arizona wrangle Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to seize control of the NFC West?

  By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

At some point last Sunday, the NFL season officially hit the halfway mark. Every team has played at least eight games. Some have played nine.

The cream is starting to rise to the top, at least in the AFC. The Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos, based on their current records and the strength of their divisions, have all but wrapped up playoff berths, barring an epic, near-unprecedented collapse. (Football Outsiders lists all three as having a better than 90 percent chance of winning their divisions).

Indianapolis seems to remain the favorite in the South, if only by default, and a handful of other teams - New York, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Oakland - will be left to duke it out for two Wild Card spots. You could try to talk yourself into Baltimore, Houston, or Kansas City, but you'd be very stupid.

The NFC is murkier. The only team with a real stranglehold on their division is Carolina, but really only because Atlanta has stumbled of late, and their 5-0 start may have been a mirage. The East and the West are both totally up for grabs, and the NFC North suddenly finds itself with a tie atop the division between Green Bay and Minnesota. The Packers are still the favorites (and a Week 17 head-to-head at Lambeau Field with the Vikings tilts the scales even more), but Minnesota's easy schedule should continue to benefit them.

Don't expect much separation to occur this weekend - only two games feature teams competing for (potentially) the same playoff spot, and one of them occurred Thursday night. As for the other one, it's one of our games of the week.

Game(s) of The Week

New England at New York Giants (4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

New England is obviously the class of the AFC East, and probably the favorite to take the conference crown. The Giants are certainly in the mix in the NFC East, and have proven time and again that, once in the playoffs, they're capable of making inexplicable runs to the Lombardi trophy. These aren't your slightly-older-brother's Giants' teams - there isn't much of a pass rush, and they don't throw deep. Their success stems from short timing routes to quick, shifty receivers.

Kind of like, you know, the Patriots.

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): And the Race is On

Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis with the chance to break two of the NFL's most significant records against his old team.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) 

It's crazy to think, but the NFL season is now half-done, and playoff races are already in full swing. While a bunch of divisions are wrapped up, as we said last week, there are still some exciting divisional races, as well as Wild Card battles, going on in both conferences.

I won't waste any more of your time, here are our games of the week and picks against the spread.

Game(s) of The Week

Oakland at Pittsburgh (1 pm, Sunday, CBS)

Beaten and bruised Pittsburgh renews its rivalry with now up-and-coming Oakland in the Steel City. It may seem like a breakthrough for the Raiders to beat the Steelers, but Oakland has actually won the last two against Pittsburgh, a streak the Steelers will want to break at home.

The winner here would get big boost in the race for an AFC Wild Card spot.

NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): A Premature End to Division Races?

Will the return of Ben Roethlisberger make Pittsburgh a legitimate player in the AFC North, or will Cincinnati all but lock up the division with a win Sunday?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're only in Week 8, and a bunch of divisional races may already be over. As crazy as it sounds, the Bengals can grab a stranglehold on the AFC North with a win in Pittsburgh this week, stretching their lead to three games over the Steelers with a victory.

But this isn't unique to one division. We pretty much pencil in New England as the AFC East champ every year, and this season the Patriots have etched it in stone before midseason. Their win over the Dolphins gave them a a two-game lead and the tie-breaker over Buffalo, while the Broncos can all but wrap up the AFC West with a win and Raiders loss this week.

Let's not even talk about the AFC South, which is competitive, but features some of the worst teams in football. When 1-5 Tennessee is only two games out of first place, you've got some problems.

In the NFC things are a bit more competitive, with an NFC South race between Carolina and Atlanta that could bring some high drama, and an NFC West led by Arizona, but with Seattle and St. Louis coming on strong. The NFC North is Green Bay's once again, and the NFC East is as unpredictable, and horrible, as it has been in a while.

With all that in mind, let's take a look at the games that already have playoff implications.

NFL Week 6 Primer (With Picks): Just The Picks, Ma'am

Von Miller and Denver's league-best pass rush will face off with suddenly red-hot Josh McCown and Cleveland's prolific passing offense.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Around 2:00 a.m. Thursday night/Friday morning, I (Jeremy) forgot that I hadn't written the picks column yet. I desperately wanted to sleep, so we're skipping all the bells and whistles and getting straight to it.

Here Are The Picks We Agree On (Home Teams in CAPS)

Atlanta (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Somehow we both saw this coming and didn't do anything about it. We both feel stupid.

Denver (-4.5) over CLEVELAND

JC: Josh McCown has been low-key on fire of late (385 yards per game over his last three, 6-1 TD-INT ratio), but Denver's defense has shut down everyone that's been put in front of them. Eventually, the Broncos offense is going to heat up, and when they do, they'll win big.

JP: Dear God, Cleveland's offense against Denver's defense is the marquee matchup of the week! 

NFL Week 5 Primer (With Picks): Trends Emerge

Kam Chancellor's return has put the "boom" back in Seattle's secondary, but how will they deal with a red-hot Cincinnati offense?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've seen four weeks of football, which means we have five data points - the four games we've seen from (most) teams, plus our preseason expectations. Week Four presented a lot of compelling evidence. The three unbeaten teams we were still on the fence about - Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati - all put a big whoopin' on their opponents. All three teams sport average scoring margins of +9 or better, which, through a quarter of the season, seems like we can say is not a coincidence.

At the very least, we can separate the league into "have"s and "have-not"s, with very few exceptions (for example, I still have no flippin' idea what to make of Minnesota and St. Louis). We know which teams are good and which teams are bad, the only questions that remain are with regards to degrees.

NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks): A Crummy Slate With Some Big Lines

Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are 0-2, but still give over two touchdowns this week to the injury-depleted (and horrible) Bears.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Look, we all know that Jeremy wasn't going to go 13-2-1 every week. Nobody is going to nail 84.3 percent of their picks for a full season. If anyone ever does that, they're a wizard. Ask them who really killed Kennedy.

But Week 2 was a little bit of a regression. Really, not so much of a regression to the mean, but a regression far past the mean and a collision into suckitude. All the teams that came through for him in Week 1 (St. Louis, Miami, San Francisco, Tennessee) flopped, and the teams he made hay betting against (Minnesota, Oakland, Washington) all of a sudden won games outright as underdogs.

Joe wasn't as good Week 1, but still above board (9-6-1), but fell even harder in Week 2. His strategy of intentionally finding games to disagree with Jeremy on backfired, and he went 1-2 in disagreements, expanding Jeremy's lead even further. 

Through two weeks, we haven't really learned much other than the NFC East and AFC South are both hot garbage, the NFC West might not be as good as we think it is, and the AFC East might be the best division in football (so far).

The Patriots look like the clear favorite in the AFC, while the Packers and Cardinals appear to be the class of the NFC for now. Our best guess is that the Patriots will pace the AFC just about all season and a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl will depend on postseason health and matchups, while the NFC will be topsy-turvy for the next month or two before a favorite emerges around Thanksgiving. Who that is, we have no idea. Let's just get to the picks.

NFL Week 2 Primer (With Picks): Are You Not Entertained?

Are Tyrod Taylor and the Bills for real?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy said he was out for blood, and he wasn't kidding. He opened up the season with a 13-2-1 record against the spread, and he only lost the second game because, like a damn fool, he switched picks from Atlanta (who was getting three) to Philadelphia (who was giving three) at the last minute (out of embarrassment and shame, he deleted all Tweets that confirmed this, but Joe still has a screen shot of the text message and threatened to use it if Jeremy tried to weasel his way out).

Historically, Week 2 has been a bad week for us. We come into the season with certain expectations, but Week 1 often turns those expectations upside down. So Week 2 has a lot of uncertainty - do we stick to our guns, or do we change our mind based on what we saw Week 1? Luckily for Jeremy, he burned the house down in Week 1, so he doesn't really have much to correct (unless he just got inexplicably lucky with every pick, which, now that we think about it, is probably much closer to the truth). In any case, Jeremy rides into Week 2 with a 5-1 edge against Joe on disagreements, the biggest single-week victory that either side has had in the history of these picks (which is only two years and one week, but still).

Game(s) of The Week

New England @ Buffalo (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

It's last year's Super Bowl champion going up against the team that might have had the best start-to-finish performance of any team in the league last year (adjusted for opponent, at least - Kansas City or Cincinnati might have been better, but the teams they played are definitely not as good as Indianapolis). Brady lit up a porous Pittsburgh back seven, but Buffalo's staunch defensive line could make life difficult for Touchdown Tom. 

NFL Week 1 Primer (With Picks): Football, Baby; Football

Football is back, and Sunday night's Giants-Cowboys game will give us this dude (Odell Beckham Jr.) making crazy plays, Romo and Eli either being really good or terrible, and a pass rusher missing a finger! God bless the NFL.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

What a long, strange year it's been. When we left you, the Patriots had just won their fourth Super Bowl in the last decade and a half, and were about to embark on perhaps the most bizarre offseason a football team has ever faced. But that's over now. Because we're here.

Joe took our picks crown in 2013 with a regular season record of 125-122-11, beating Jeremy's 118-129-11. In 2014, Joe took the crown again (barely), 128-121-7 to 126-123-7. This year, Jeremy is out for blood.

Jeremy and Joe (mostly Joe) have spent the last month previewing the season, so we won't waste time with that here. We'll just jump straight into the picks, because all that's important is that Joe loses this year.

-Jeremy

Game(s) of The Week

We really could qualify every game this week as a Game of The Week, considering football is back and we've all missed it, but we'll just run through a few ones of particular interest.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

This could end up being the No. 1 passing offense in the league versus the No. 1 passing defense in the league, so whoever takes the upper hand here could be a decent harbinger for the year to come. 

Week 17 NFL Primer (With Picks): The Long And Winding Road

The Lions have had their fair share of struggles at Lambeau Field.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

I think we're a little past intros at this point.

The holidays are upon us, and the NFL has wrapped a trio of winner-take-all divisional championship games for Week 17. Let's get right to those games, plus another contest with playoff implications, and to our final weekly picks against the spread, where Jeremy is sitting at .500 and just within striking distance of catching Joe.

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 8-7-1
Season: 116-119-1
Home Dogs, Last Week: 5-2
Home Dogs, Season: 36-38-1

Game(s) of The Week (All Games on Sunday)

San Diego at Kansas City: 1 pm on CBS

If the Chargers win, they're in, but the Chiefs have an outside shot at the postseason as well, not to mention one of the best home field advantages in the league. Any way you slice it, this will determine the final AFC Wild Card spot, which would go to the Chargers if they win, then fall to Baltimore if San Diego loses. But, if the Ravens can't take care of business against the Browns, and the Jaguars knock off Houston, the Chiefs would slide into the playoffs. Not likely, but I expect a big effort from Kansas City, a team still technically alive.

Carolina at Atlanta: 4:25 pm on CBS

So what if neither team can finish with a winning record? The winner of this game still gets the No. 4 seed in the NFC and the home playoff game that comes with it. Both teams have been surprisingly not terrible lately, and with Atlanta feeling at home in the Dome, this could actually end up being a pretty good one.

Detroit at Green Bay: 4:25 pm on FOX

The Lions haven't won in Green Bay since the Cretaceous Period, and they'll have to do it without suspended center Dominic Raiola. Still, don't count out the physical Lions defense, which may be able to hassle Aaron Rodgers the same way Buffalo did a few weeks back.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 8:30 pm on NBC

Both of these teams are already in the playoffs, so this game essentially means the difference between the No. 3 seed and hosting either San Diego, Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City, or the No. 5 seed and a trip to Indianapolis.

Basically, don't expect desperation on either side, but both teams would like to capture a division title and not have to face Andrew Luck in-doors next week.

Here Are The Picks We Agree On (Home Teams In CAPS)

Jacksonville (+9.5) over HOUSTON

JC: Case Keenum's deal with the devil was only for one game against secretly one of the league's worst pass defenses in Baltimore. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has been semi-frisky of late, 2-2 in their last four games, 3-1 against the spread.

JP: Keenum isn't quite as bad as people make him out to be, and he has looked comfortable when called upon in Houston's offense. That being said, I'm not giving more than a touchdown with him starting against anybody, even given last week's performance. Still think the Texans get the win outright, but this should be closer than expected.

Indianapolis (-7) over TENNESSEE

JC: Indianapolis beats up on bad teams, especially in the division. Even if they have nothing to play for (they're locked into the No. 4 seed), they'll want to get some momentum going into the playoffs after last week's beat-down at the hands of Dallas.

JP: I'm playing against Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton in my fantasy finals this week, so I hope Indy rests its starters, but I see them blasting the Titans in a "get your mojo back" kind of game.

BALTIMORE (-10) over Cleveland

JC: Baltimore has been stumbling of late, but Cleveland is in free-fall, and Baltimore needs a win to have any hope of the postseason. They'll come out swinging.

JP: The Browns have zero to play for and the Ravens need a win at home to stay alive in the playoff race. Hard to see Cleveland putting up much of a fight after the Johnny Football experiment failed and it had to turn back to Hoyer.

New York Jets (+6) over MIAMI

JC: Miami hasn't impressed at all since the beginning of November, and Rex Ryan is getting fired at the end of the season, so he has no incentive to tank for a draft pick that he won't be around to coach. This should be a close affair, not unlike the Monday night matchup in Week 13.

JP: A win in Miami is always big for the Jets, and Miami's defense outside of Cam Wake has not impressed me in recent weeks. The Jets may not be the best-equipped team to take advantage of that fact, but at least they should be able to contain Ryan Tannehill, unlike Minnesota last week. This one has close, emotional, and ultimately meaningless written all over it.

MINNESOTA (-6) over Chicago

JC: If your gameplan has been to bet against Chicago over the second half of the season, you're probably a very rich person.

JP: I just can't bet on the Bears if Jimmy Clausen is out... Wait, what?

San Diego (+3) over KANSAS CITY

JC: Who needs this game more? San Diego needs a win to get into the playoffs. Kansas City needs a win to... still be eliminated from the playoffs. This seems like a no-brainer.

JP: I think it will be a close one, but I've gotta go with the Chargers, who have everything to play for, and are getting points.

Dallas (-6) over WASHINGTON

JC: If everything breaks right (they'd need a San Francisco win over Arizona and a St. Louis win over Seattle), Dallas could have a first-round bye, so they're likely to take this one seriously. And after losing their last three Week 17 games to miss the playoffs, the circle should complete by winning in Week 17 to secure a bye.

JP: Dallas also probably doesn't want Washington to be able to say it swept the Cowboys this year. I like the Boys big in this one.

New Orleans (-4) over TAMPA BAY

JC: Who needs this game more? New Orleans can't win the division, but Tampa Bay could get the No. 1 pick. They might start Florence Henderson at quarterback.

JP: Don't give an iota for Mariota?

GREEN BAY (-8) over Detroit

JC: Detroit is 2-5 against the spread on the road. The Packers are 5-1-1 against the spread at home.

JP: I know I said not to count out the Lions up there, but I'm totally counting them out against the Packers at Lambeau.

SEATTLE (-12.5) over St. Louis

JC: I'm almost scared to see what the Seahawks are capable of in a home game while playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC while also being the hottest team in football. They've given up 33 points in their last five games. That's insane.

JP: And, like the Cowboys, the Seahawks would hate to be swept by a team that may finish last in their division.

Arizona (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

JC: Yeah, Arizona has stumbled, but San Francisco has lost four straight and six of their last nine (and even those three wins were by a total of 13 points against the Saints, Giants, and Redskins - so in other words, they've sucked for a solid two months now). Oh, and also, they might have already quit on their coach.

JP: I hate both these teams right now, so gimme the points.

Oakland (+14) over DENVER

JC: Oakland's against-the-spread friskiness is a real thing, you guys. They're 4-2 over their last six games, 8-7 for the season. Meanwhile, Denver is only 7-8 against the spread this year, 2-4 over their last six.

JP: Peyton Manning just doesn't look right. Still think the Broncos have enough to win this one, but two touchdowns is asking a lot right now.

Here Are The Picks We Don't (Home Teams Still In CAPS)

JC: NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Buffalo

My money is on an exceedingly bizarre game where Tom Brady plays the first half and the Patriots are down by a field goal at the break, then with the Patriots having nothing to play for (they're guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the AFC), Jimmy Garoppolo comes in and shockingly leads three second-half touchdown drives.

JP: Buffalo (+5) over NEW ENGLAND

I could see that, but I also can't shake the feeling that beating New England, even when it is resting its starters, would sort of make the end of Buffalo's season. I see a motivated Bills team knocking off the Patriots backups on a late field goal.

JC: Carolina (+4) over ATLANTA

This division is garbage. It's only fitting that a team that started 3-8-1 and everyone wrote off inexplicably storms back to make the playoffs.

JP: ATLANTA (-4) over Carolina

It looks like Julio Jones is going to play, and I'm ready for at least one team in this division to take advantage of its dome field advantage. Dirty Birds!

JC: Philadelphia (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS

I get that Philadelphia is eliminated and that the Giants have won three straight, but two of those wins were over Tennessee and Washington, and Chip Kelly in F-U mode could be interesting.

JP: NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia

This may quietly be the most fun game of the afternoon as the Eagles open things up even more and Odell Beckham Jr. reminds everyone he should definitely be in the Pro Bowl. Look for some fireworks, and I'll take the G Men, who have Good Eli going for them right now.

JC: PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 9, Pittsburgh has won 7 of their last 9. The stakes are pretty much the same for both teams - winner claims the division and the No. 3 seed, loser gets a wild card (if Oakland beats Denver, Cincinnati could end up with the No. 2 seed but I wouldn't hold my breath). Pittsburgh is 8-7 against the spread, Cincinnati is 8-6-1. Pittsburgh is 4-3 against the spread at home, Cincinnati is 4-3 against the spread on the road. Pittsburgh is 5-2 straight up at home, Cincinnati is 5-2 straight up on the road. You'd think this is an even matchup (and would warrant taking Cincinnati, especially with that extra half-point). But these teams played three weeks ago, in Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh beat the crap out of them. So there.

JP: Cincinnati (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

I'm just gonna continue my reverse-Steelers jinx.

Jeremy's Record:
Last Week: 6-9-1
Season: 117-117-6
Last Week's Disagreements: 2-1-1
Season's Disagreements: 30-34-2

Joe's Record:
Last Week: 5-10-1
Season: 121-113-6
Last Week's Disagreements: 1-2-1
Season's Disagreements: 34-30-2

NFL Week 16 Primer (With Picks): Losers Leave Town

It's been a down year for the Falcons and NFC South as a whole, but a win in New Orleans this week would lock up a season sweep of the Saints and, likely, a home playoff game for Atlanta.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Atlanta at New Orleans. Baltimore at Houston. Kansas City at Pittsburgh. Indianapolis at Dallas. Seattle at Arizona. Denver at Cincinnati

All six of those games hold a tremendous amount of importance regarding either playoff berths or playoff seedings. The winner of the first will almost certainly win the NFC South. The loser of the second game will almost certainly miss the playoffs (and if the loser is Houston, they will). The loser of the third receives a shotgun-sized hole to their playoff hopes. The loser of the fourth almost certainly loses out on the No. 3 seed in their conference. The winner of the fifth will take the NFC West and a first-round bye along with it. And the winner of the sixth will set themselves up nicely for a first-round bye in the AFC bracket.

Let's not mess around. Let's get straight to the picks. Also because I'm 20-9-3 over the last two weeks and can see Joe in my sights.

-Jeremy

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 108-112-5
Home Dogs, Last Week: 1-4
Home Dogs, Season: 29-36-1

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): The Playoff Picture Emerges

It's finally Johnny Football time in Cleveland, but can Manziel keep the Browns alive in the AFC playoff race?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

For all intents and purposes, three divisions have been decided (the AFC East, AFC South, and AFC West). The other five divisions will, in all likelihood, be decided by a single game at some point over the next three weeks. One of them is this week, when the Eagles host the Cowboys. If the Eagles win, they'll hold a one-game lead over the Cowboys, but also the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a 2-0 record over Dallas, which would all but clinch the division in their favor.

Next week, Atlanta will travel to New Orleans for a game that, in all likelihood, will determine the NFC South champion. That evening, Seattle will travel to Arizona in a matchup that should decide the NFC West, and will probably give the winner the inside track towards a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

The final two divisions won't be completely decided until Week 17, when Detroit travels to Green Bay and Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh.

NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): Hitting the Home Stretch

A.J. Green is just like you. Except he's hoping to lead the Bengals to a fourth straight playoff appearance.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're late with our picks this week.

Joe (I) was tired, Jeremy was sick, and we're entering the final quarter of the NFL season. That means every team has exactly four games left to play. For teams in the AFC North, that means somebody is probably going to implode and somebody is probably going to get hot, while the Saints and Falcons suddenly look like decent playoff teams in the potentially not-historically-awful NFC South.

The Patriots' tough loss at Green Bay means they need to keep winning, while the NFC's top spot and NFC West title are up for grabs with Arizona coming apart at the seams.

As much as we've learned throughout the season's first three quarters, we still have so much to look forward to. Which playoff team is a fraud? Which 7-5 squad will catch fire and contend for the Super Bowl? Who will emerge in a crowded MVP race? When will Tony Romo totally screw this all up (not this week, apparently)?