We Need Sports Things to Talk About, So Let's Gamble on Football (if there is football)

In the middle of a contract dispute with the Cowboys, surely nobody would bet on Dak Prescott to win the MVP, would they?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

While there are certainly more important things happening now than a lack of sports, crawling along in a sports-less desert has made many fans thirsty for ANYTHING to argue about.

Look no further than ESPN's documentary series "The Last Dance," chronicling Michael Jordan's final season (and really, entire career) with the Chicago Bulls. A documentary like this would normally be very popular anyway, but it has absolutely taken over the sports social media world, and drawn millions of viewers each week.

Similarly, the WNBA and NFL Draft both had their best years, in terms of viewership, in their history, and several notable players have mainstream news made waves by changing squads during NFL free agency (maybe you've heard of that Brady guy?).

The dust has not totally settled, but with the draft complete, and the NFL seemingly intent on playing games without interruption, now seems like a perfect time to start some more debates and look at a few NFL futures bets.

Odds for the Super Bowl, MVP and division winners have been updated, and you can find all that information here, along with other NFL related news. There will be more updates up until NFL starts so take the current odds with a grain of salt. For the sake of this blog, I'm going to take a look at my favorite, and least favorite picks to win divisions, and the MVP.

So, which bets are my Stone Cold Locks of The Quarantine? Find out below.

Inside the NFL Film Room: How 'Bout them Dolphins?

Finding new ways to get Jarvis Landry the ball is just one of the ways Miami is turning its season around.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Miami Dolphins entered their fourth season under coach Joe Philbin with playoff expectations.

Miami had finished 2013 and 2014 with matching 8-8 records, enduring mini-collapses to end both campaigns.

2015 was supposed to be different, as quarterback Ryan Tannahill entered his fourth season as well, now with a revamped receiving corps that included budding young stars Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and DeVante Parker, along with veteran Greg Jennings, and tight ends Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims.

Another unit expected to make a leap was the Dolphins offensive line, which was now two years removed from the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin bullying saga that tore it apart in 2013. Led by star center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Brandon Albert, along with a pair of promising young guards, the Miami line seemed poise to lead the way for a big year from Lamar Miller.

And that was just on offense.

The expectations were even higher on defense, as Miami opened up its wallet this past offseason for All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, signing the former Lion to a 6-year, $114 million deal that made him the highest paid defensive player in league history. Adding Suh to an improving defense that included revitalized pass rusher Cam Wake, and a promising secondary led by Brent Grimes surely made this a playoff team, right?

Unfortunately for Dol-fans, Miami's season began to fall apart almost instantaneously.

NFL Week 4 Primer (With Picks) - Still Can't Be Sure

The Bengals and quarterback Andy Dalton (14) come into Week 4 undefeated and riding high, while linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) and the 0-3 Ravens badly need a win Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've learned a few things over the first three weeks of the season - The Packers still have an elite offense even without Jordy Nelosn, the Broncos have maybe the best defense in football, the Patriots plan on scoring a lot of points, and the Cardinals are taking no prisoners. Meanwhile, Chicago and New Orleans suck, and the AFC South is a dumpster fire as usual.

But there's a lot we still don't know. For instance - is Atlanta actually good? They've beaten three NFC East teams, but the NFC East might suck. Are the Panthers good? They're also 3-0, but they've also defeated three terrible teams. Are the Colts as bad as they look, or are the Bills and Jets just much better than we were anticipating? How good (or bad) are teams like Tennessee, Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, St. Louis, and the entire AFC North? There's still a lot of uncertainty about.

Game(s) of the Week

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:25 p.m. Thursday, CBS/NFL Network)

I know Ben Roethlisberger isn't playing in this one, but it's still Steelers-Ravens in Pittsburgh, and both teams have a ton to play for. The 2-1 Steelers are just hoping to stay afloat without their franchise quarterback, and they'll lean on the largely washed up Michael Vick to manage the offense, hoping that All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown and All-Pro running back Le'Veon Bell can bring him along.

On the other side, the Ravens are 0-3 for the first time since the club moved to Baltimore, and staring a playoff-less season in the face. Aging receiver Steve Smith Sr. is playing like a young pup again, but the Ravens haven't found any other reliable weapons offensively. Normally that wouldn't be a huge problem, but Baltimore is currently a below-average defense thanks to the loss of All-Pro linebacker Terrell Suggs, ranking 22nd in the league in total defense (and that counts a solid Week 1 performance in which Suggs played most of the game).

Both teams have issues in the secondary, but can the toothless Ravens skill position group or the Vick-led Steelers offense capitalize?

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC East

Daphne: "Release me vile human!"

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Welcome to our first NFL preview of the summer! My pup and I are happy to have you. Over the next several weeks we will be taking a look at every division in the league, along with making playoff and award predictions.

We begin today with the AFC East, a division owned by the New England Patriots, or, more specifically, quarterback Tom Brady, who has won the division in all but one of his healthy seasons since taking over as the Patriots' starter in mid-2001. That's 12 division titles in Brady's 13 seasons, if you're curious, with the Patriots winning the division 12 times overall in that 14 year span.

In that time, only one other quarterback has won the AFC East: The immortal Chad Pennington, who went 7-2 as a starter for the 2002 Jets, and led the Dolphins to a division crown during Brady's injury lost season of 2008.

Unfortunately, Chad Pennington ain't walking through that door for anybody in the division.

Still, the AFC East could be better and deeper than it has been in years, thanks to some suddenly salty defenses. But, will the division's traditional also-rans get enough out of their quarterbacks to capitalize on their stellar defensive fronts? Daphne and I examine.

The "Patriot Way" and NFL Free Agency, So Far

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There is little doubt that the Patriots, led by Bill Belichick, have been the smartest team in football the last decade-and-a-half, both on the field, and in personnel decisions.

This commitment to smart play, and an unwavering support of Belichick's "process" in both the NFL Draft and free agency have come to be known as the "Patriot Way," not to be confused with the fictional "Patriot Way" that New England fans pretend exists, wherein New England does everything "the right way," doesn't cheat, and only employs choir boys (the recent suspicious case of LeGarrette Blount, SpyGate and Aaron Hernandez seem to prove all of those sentiments false).

Still, the "Patriot Way" is the league's most successful and revered process. In fact, Belichick's ability to field winning teams year-in and year-out make him not only the best coach in the NFL, but arguably the best General Manager in major American sports.

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): The Playoff Picture Emerges

It's finally Johnny Football time in Cleveland, but can Manziel keep the Browns alive in the AFC playoff race?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

For all intents and purposes, three divisions have been decided (the AFC East, AFC South, and AFC West). The other five divisions will, in all likelihood, be decided by a single game at some point over the next three weeks. One of them is this week, when the Eagles host the Cowboys. If the Eagles win, they'll hold a one-game lead over the Cowboys, but also the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a 2-0 record over Dallas, which would all but clinch the division in their favor.

Next week, Atlanta will travel to New Orleans for a game that, in all likelihood, will determine the NFC South champion. That evening, Seattle will travel to Arizona in a matchup that should decide the NFC West, and will probably give the winner the inside track towards a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

The final two divisions won't be completely decided until Week 17, when Detroit travels to Green Bay and Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh.

NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): Hitting the Home Stretch

A.J. Green is just like you. Except he's hoping to lead the Bengals to a fourth straight playoff appearance.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're late with our picks this week.

Joe (I) was tired, Jeremy was sick, and we're entering the final quarter of the NFL season. That means every team has exactly four games left to play. For teams in the AFC North, that means somebody is probably going to implode and somebody is probably going to get hot, while the Saints and Falcons suddenly look like decent playoff teams in the potentially not-historically-awful NFC South.

The Patriots' tough loss at Green Bay means they need to keep winning, while the NFC's top spot and NFC West title are up for grabs with Arizona coming apart at the seams.

As much as we've learned throughout the season's first three quarters, we still have so much to look forward to. Which playoff team is a fraud? Which 7-5 squad will catch fire and contend for the Super Bowl? Who will emerge in a crowded MVP race? When will Tony Romo totally screw this all up (not this week, apparently)?

NFL Week 12 Primer (With Picks): Your Team is Probably Still Alive

Cheer up Cam! Your horrendous disappointment of a team is only one game out of hosting a playoff game!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Anybody who thinks the NFL needs to add another Wild Card team to increase excitement around the league is being thoroughly refuted this year. 11 weeks into the year and virtually the entire AFC is still in playoff contention.

Seriously, look at the standings. As long as you don't root for the Jets, Jags, Titans or Raiders, your team has a shot! The 12 other teams in the AFC are .500 or better, which is absolutely crazy at this point in the year.

The NFC doesn't have as many teams at .500 (just seven) but, thanks to the dumpster fire that is the NFC South, all four awful teams are still alive. The Falcons and Saints have limped to 4-6, while Carolina, as horrible a disappointment as it has been, sits only a game out of first place at 3-7.

And here is my "oh my God this needs to happen" realization of the week: The Bucs are only two games out of HOSTING a playoff game. Oh my God, this needs to happen! Please Tampa Bay, go 4-2 the rest of the way and somehow win this awful division at 6-10!

I look forward to seeing you lose by 50 at home in the first round.

Anyways, the point is that with 19 teams at .500 or better, and four teams kept alive by a historically bad division, there are 23 fan bases all still thinking about postseason football. That's nearly 3/4ths of the league, so chances are your team is playing a pretty important game this week. Heck, the only teams that are actually eliminated mathematically so far are the Raiders, Jaguars, Titans and Jets, so you go crazy with hope Bears/Vikings/Rams/Giants/Redskins fans!

-Joe

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 76-83-2
Home Dogs, Last Week: 2-1
Home Dogs, Season: 19-26-1

Game(s) of The Week:

Detroit @ New England (1 pm Sunday. FOX)

Detroit couldn't seize control of the NFC last week against Arizona, but a win against AFC favorite New England will go a long way toward earning national respect. As of now, the Lions come into Gillette as a touchdown dog, and with the Patriots riding a five-game winning streak, it's easy to see why.

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Year Of The Favorite?

The Broncos have been favored by over a touchdown (6.5 points or higher) a league-high seven times in nine games. More impressively, the perennial big favorites have covered in five of those seven contests.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During last week's intro, we mentioned that what we once thought would be the Year of The Underdog turned out to, well, not be. The eight-week stretch running from Week 3 through Week 10 saw favorites go 55-45-2, but it was mostly incremental - going 7-6 or 8-7 in a given week.

Well, last week blew the doors open. Favorites were a jarring 10-3 against the spread, will all three underdog covers coming early - Thursday night (Cleveland) and two 1 o'clock Sunday games (the Jets and San Francisco), and all three underdogs won outright. That means that starting with the late games on Sunday, favorites swept, going 5-0, an absolute disaster for Vegas (the most bets/money always comes in on the 4:25 national game, the Sunday night game, and Monday night, and the public always prefers favorites).

Is there an overreaction this week? Maybe. There are some pretty big spreads (two over 10 points), and several between relatively even teams that you might expect to fall in the 3-5 point range, but instead see favorites laying a touchdown.

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 3-10
Season: 68-77-2
Home Dogs, Last Week: 1-3
Home Dogs, Season: 17-25-1

Game(s) of The Week:

Buffalo @ Miami (8:30 p.m. Thursday, NFL Network)

This might be our first official "Loser Leaves Town" game of the year. With the Patriots rolling, neither team is likely to win the division, and with the entire AFC North still competitive, plus the Chiefs and Chargers, being 5-5 through 11 weeks probably isn't good enough. Whoever wins will end up at 6-4 and still be in the thick of it.

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): RIP Year of The Underdog

Thanks to a big season from Andrew Luck, the Colts have been perennial favorites this year. Favored in eight of their nine games, the Colts are a league-best 7-2 against the spread.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Year of The Underdog is dead.

Long Live Year of The Underdog.

The last time dogs finished above .500 for a week was Week 2. No, seriously, you can look it up and everything. They started the year 20-12 (an astonishing 62.5 percent), but they're just 45-55-2 (45.0 percent) since. Favorites haven't really had a kick-ass week other than a 9-5-1 showing in Week 6, but nothing like the 11-5 drubbing the underdogs put up in Week 1. As a matter of fact, if you exclude Week 1 from the sample (when Vegas is just winging it and so are the gamblers), favorites are 62-54-2. Eight games over .500 through nine weeks is pretty good. Once Vegas course-corrected, it seems like favorites are back in business - and remember, this is after favorites covered on 52.2 percent of spreads last year, the third-highest figure in the last 25 years.

We started the year with "when in doubt, take the points." That doesn't seem to be true anymore.

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): The More Things Change…

This was the least-flattering picture we could find of Tom Brady. Damn you beautiful man!

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We all know the NFL is a league of parity, where a team can rise from the bottom to the middle, from the middle to the top and, occasionally, from the bottom to the top in the span of a single season.

Just look at this week's Cowboys-Cardinals game in Dallas. Even after the 'Boys fell to Washington on Monday Night, this is the unquestioned game of the week, as the No. 1 spot in the NFC will be up for grabs. Who saw that coming?

But, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This week will also bring another installment in the historic Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning rivalry, with the winner putting his team in the driver's seat for home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. We'll also get a prime time game in Pittsburgh featuring the Steelers and Ravens duking it out for AFC North dominance.

Let's take a look at those games, plus our underdog update and weekly picks, below.

-Joe

Last Minute Fantasy Start'ems and Sit'ems: Week 4

Donald Brown (the guy getting tackled) is not a very good football player... You should start him anyway this week.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) with a cameo from Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Greetings everyone.

I am currently in Pittsburgh getting ready to watch the Steelers host the Bucs, so this week's Fantasy Football advice also features Jeremy's picks. Last week went much better for my picks than two weeks ago, as my quarterback Kirk Cousins had a career day against the Eagles and… Ok, I didn't really hit any home runs other than that, but hey, baby steps.

Anyways, here are your weekly start'ems and sit'ems for Sunday's games.

Catching Up With Bob Lobel: The Hot and Cold Patriots

On this week's edition of  "Catching Up With Bob Lobel," legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel and host Joe Parello discuss New England's disappointing week one loss to the Dolphins, and its bounce-back blowout win over Minnesota.

Which team is the real New England, and are the Patriots still the Super Bowl contenders we all thought with Tom Brady's numbers dipping?

That, and more, on this week's episode.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC East

Tom Brady is still under center for the Patriots, but it will be New England's defense that will need to carry them if they want to make it back to the Super Bowl.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC East will (in overwhelming likelihood) not be hotly contested. The division title, for years, has been the reward the New England Patriots receive simply for showing up with a healthy quarterback. The Patriots have won 12 or more games in eight of the last eleven seasons. No other team in the division has even done it once. They've won the division in 11 of the last 13. The two years they didn't they came damn close - in 2008, they went 11-5 but lost the division to the also 11-5 Dolphins, despite the Patriots posting a far superior scoring margin. In 2002, there was a three-way tie at 9-7 atop the division, but the Patriots lost out to the Jets on tiebreakers despite, again, a superior scoring margin.

Nobody really expects anyone to challenge the Patriots, which is why they have the second-steepest odds to win their division - Vegas sees only Denver as a bigger lock to win their division. But after the Patriots, the division is very much in flux. And with the conference so up in the air outside of New England and Denver, whoever grabs second in the AFC East could very well be a dangerous Wild Card team.

Midweek #HotSportsTakes: Zen in NY and NFL Free Agency Opens!

The Knicks have been comically bad lately, but can the Zen Master and his 11 rings (plus 2 as a player) turn things around?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Midweek #HotSportsTakes is a new weekly segment here on SuiteSports, where we will offer shallow and somewhat incendiary analysis on random hot-button sports topics of the day.

So, here we go...

On Phil Jackson Joining the Knicks by Week's End

JP: Oh, come on! Don't fix anything or instill common sense/basketball knowledge here Phil! Things were just getting fun.

JC: Phil Jackson isn’t worth the money he demands even as a coach – he certainly doesn’t deserve more than that for a front office position.

Paying Phil Jackson $15 million to “fill” a job opening that doesn’t currently exist cements Jim Dolan as the worst owner in American professional sports.

Why Your Favorite AFC Team Will Make the Super Bowl Next Year

Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins could be playing on Super Sunday next year... No, seriously. Ok, maybe not that seriously.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

We've made it to that comfortable void between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, and two fan bases are in football fandom heaven right now.

Yep, those lucky bastards in Denver and Seattle get to dream about their team's Super Bowl date in just under two weeks, not to mention all the reminiscing they're already doing about the 2013 season and accompanying postseason. You see, making the Super Bowl is such a huge accomplishment, that the season is already a success for both this teams. After all, Peyton Manning did beat Tom Brady to get here, and the Seahawks got to defeat, then totally belittle, the hated 49ers to make Super Sunday.

Only a New England Patriots fan could complain about just making the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship Primer: The Best Defenses in NFL History

How do the Seahawks and their dominant secondary rank among the NFL's all time best defenses?

By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

With Sunday's NFC Championship being billed as a heavyweight bout between two of the league's best defenses, I grew curious: How do these two great defenses stack up against the best in league history?

Well, it turns out at least one of them does very favorably.

NFL Week 17 Primer- It's Almost Over

Despite employing Carson Palmer, the Cardinals still have a shot at the playoffs, thanks to their defense.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Every week we've brought you our NFL picks against the spread, and proven to you just how average we are at beating Vegas. With Week 17 fast approaching, editors Jeremy and Joe decided to go with a new idea (since they're both away for the holidays and lazy) and do a podcast of their picks instead of writing them out.

So, click below to see (and hear) everything you need to know about the final week of the regular season, complete with picks against the spread and playoff scenarios. Well, maybe not EVERYTHING. Our recording got cut off at 45 minutes and we didn't get to talk about St. Louis at Seattle. But everything else is there.

Oh, and if you don't feel like listening, the picks written out too.

Bob Lobel: Mediocrity Rules in the NFL and Boston Stays Strong

By Bob Lobel  @boblobel

Seems pretty obvious that the NFL has moved in two opposing directions at once, to the delight of the game makers. 

The good teams are getting worse, the bad teams are getting better, and both are headed for a collision in the wonderful and long sought after world of average. Not much worse these days than being average, yet, it seems, one and all are arriving at almost the same time.  Parity, mediocrity, average… 

The game makers, like in “The Hunger Games,” are saying any tribute can survive. The NFL is joyous that anyone, almost, can win it all going into these last few weeks. Oh what fun it is to ride a team with a chance to shock the world.  

Even our guys… Maybe especially our guys.

NFL Week 15 Primer - The Calm Before The Storm

Ryan Tannehill helped Miami run past Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Can he do the same to Brady and the Pats?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

(Quick procedural note: In last week's picks column, we forgot to make a pick for the Atlanta-Green Bay game. This was because when we went through the lines Thursday evening for a Friday publish, the Falcons-Packers game was off the board, presumably because of uncertainty regarding Aaron Rodgers' status. We realized our mistake moments before kickoff and both ended up taking Atlanta. Here's my timestamped Tweet for confirmation.)

Back in our Week 11 Primer, we looked ahead to some of the key matchups over the last half-dozen weeks of the season. If you notice, Week 15 didn't get much love, because the slate of games doesn't have too many direct playoff implications. There are plenty of teams that are fighting for position, but there is only one game that guarantees the winner a tie-breaker that matters over the loser, and that's Dallas-Green Bay (should Dallas win the East and Green Bay win the North). However, Aaron Rodgers is doubtful to play, which tilts the scales firmly in Dallas' favor.

All told, the slate of games would be one relatively easy to pick straight-up. Against the spread is obviously another story, but many games seem tough to pick incorrectly. We're mostly just waiting for next week, with New Orleans visiting Carolina, Indianapolis visiting Kansas City, New England visiting Baltimore, and Chicago visiting Philadelphia.

But we'll have to wait.