NFL Week 4 Primer (With Picks): The Chiefs(!) Hold The Belt

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Week Three has come and gone, which means the adjustments we made have proven to be either fortuitous or, well, not. Considering Jeremy went 7-9 against the spread last weekend, and Joe was an even worse 5-11, you can probably draw your own conclusion there.

(In our own defense, we got hosed on the same games that pretty much every handicapper got hosed on. It's not like our adjustments were mis-guided, there were just some performances out of the blue that nobody really saw coming, like Buffalo, the Jets, and the Case Keenum-led Vikings.)

One way or the other, we now have three weeks of information to work with, which means at the very least, we have some tiebreakers for teams we were still on the fence about. Does New England's defense suck? Two of our first three weeks say yes. Can the Chargers cover a tight spread? Two of our first three weeks say no. Is Seattle's offense a train wreck? We're actually three for three on that one, so bet at your own risk.

AFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): One Good, One Bad

Long touchdowns will be key for KC against the Steelers.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy and Joe split the two AFC games last weekend. Both of us made the easy call no problem (Pittsburgh over Miami - although a 10-point spread was reasonably steep), and both of us missed the who-knows-who-cares game between Oakland and Houston to open the weekend.

This weekend, both of our favorite teams take the field looking to win in order to face each other in the playoffs. Depending on who you ask, one of us (Jeremy) will tell you both games ought to be a lot of fun (because the Patriots will probably blow out the Texans, and the Pittsburgh-Kansas City game should be entertaining), while the other (Joe) will tell you that both games ought to be pretty nerve-wracking (because a Patriots win means Pittsburgh needs to go through Foxborough to win the AFC, if they can even escape Kansas City with a win of their own).

Let's take a look at the matchups.

Your Saturday Divisional Round Primer

Tom Brady (12) and the Patriots will be welcoming back several players from injury this week, and perhaps none is more comforting to the star quarterback than big left tackle Sebastian Vollmer (76).

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In the Wild Card round, all four road teams prevailed for the first time since the playoff format changed back in 2002.

Also, unusually, there were two underdogs who covered but didn't win (Minnesota and Cincinnati). Normally in the postseason, underdogs don't pull backdoor covers out of a hat, they normally win outright. So perhaps it makes sense that Minnesota and Cincinnati came within inches of winning outright before losing in heartbreaking fashion.

The Wild Card round split up the conferences on separate days, but the divisional round features one AFC game and one NFC game on each day. As such, we will be previewing Saturday's games today and Sunday's games tomorrow, as to give you, dear reader, two full days to digest all of our useful information and gamble (where legal) accordingly.

Last week, Joe went 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread (only Kansas City saved him from embarrassment), Jeremy went 4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread. So, combined with regular season records (where Joe held a one-game lead), we are now tied. With that in mind, let's check out Saturday's games.

Your AFC Wild Card Primer

Since Eric Fisher (pictured) moved from right to left tackle, and left guard Jeff Allen returned from injury, the Chiefs have led the league in every relevant rushing category and gone 10-0. How is nobody talking about this, and how are no Chiefs linemen in the Pro Bowl?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Regular Season Is Dead. Long Live The Regular Season.

For the third year in a row, Joe took home the regular season crown, besting Jeremy by a single game (132-116-8 to 131-117-8), but both records mark our best single-season record to date. You can check out our complete three-year totals here, if you're so inclined.

Now begins the 11-game sprint of the postseason, marked not by exploiting ongoing inefficiencies (like Minnesota's ludicrous 13-3 record against the spread or Cincinnati's undefeated ATS record in road games), but by diving head-first down the rabbit hole of the details and the matchups.

Backdoor covers usually don't save you in the playoffs. When underdogs cover, they usually win outright.

With just four games spread across two days, as opposed to the regular 16, with 14 of them occurring on the same day, we are afforded greater space to go into greater detail. We'll start here, with the AFC, as both of their games kick off Saturday.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC West

 By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Daphne and I have already broken down both the AFC East and the NFC East, so we'll move west to close out the week with a look at the AFC West.

The division is home to two quarterbacks that should again put up big numbers in Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers, along with one of the league's better game managers in Alex Smith and, perhaps, an up-and-coming star in Oakland's Derek Carr.

The division is not as cut and dry as it has been the past few years, however, as concerns over Manning's age and health, along with a transition to new coach Gary Kubiak, have many feeling that the Broncos can be beaten.

Will there be a changing of the guard out west? Daphne and I investigate.

NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Byes Are Over; NFC South Still Sucks; Thanksgiving

Can Aaron Rodgers and the Pack cool off the red-hot Patriots?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Picks are out a day early this week, as most of you (and us) will be too busy gorging on poultry (or preparing to gorge on poultry, or traveling to a place where you plan to gorge on poultry) come Thursday to read our incessant rambling.

Bye weeks are over, which means from here on out, we get a full slate for the rest of the season. The bad news means that now that bye weeks are over, we're guaranteed to see all four NFC South teams play every week.

Catching Up With Bob Lobel: Will the Real Patriots Please Stand Up?

Join legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel and host Joe Parello as they discuss the hot and cold New England Patriots. Are the Pats Super Bowl contenders again after Monday's win over the Bengals, or are they still the vulnerable team that was exploited in Kansas City?


Plus, what should we expect from tomorrow's surprising battle for first place against Buffalo, and is the talk of Tom Brady's frustration with Bill Belichick legitimate?

Bob and Joe break it down in this week's episode.

Bob Lobel: What Just Happened to the Patriots?

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

41-14. 

Kinda gets your attention, especially if you’re a palindrome fan, which I am. Don’t be misled by the cheap rhyme. A palindrome has nothing to do with rhyming but, simply put, it’s a word, phrase or number that is the same spelled backward as it is forward. 

Like one of my favorites, Bob! 

Now since 41-14 is an obvious example and it pertains to the subject we are most likely to discuss at the watercooler, we need to find other examples. “Gag” comes to mind. How about “poop." As in, the Patriots played like poop in Kansas city. 

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC West

Can the Broncos make it back to the Super Bowl?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC West was the only division to send three teams to the playoffs this past season. That might have more to say about the overall quality of the conference, rather than the overall quality of the division, but even adjusted for strength of schedule, the AFC West was the third-best division in football last year. Here are all eight division, ranked by average SRS:

NFC West: 7.92
NFC South: 3.12
AFC West: 3.05
AFC East: -1.05
AFC North: -1.98
NFC East: -3.38
NFC North: -3.85
AFC South: -3.88

Most of the league's good teams were clustered in those three divisions at the top. This year, with the NFC North expected to improve dramatically, and the AFC North and AFC South expected to improve marginally, it's unlikely that there will be such a large disparity between the best division and the worst division. That means it's unlikely that the AFC West will get three teams back to the playoffs.

The Patriots are almost certain to win the AFC East, and the Broncos are almost certain to win the AFC West. The Colts are probably safe in the AFC South, if not as the division winner, then as a wild card. When you throw in the AFC North winner, whoever that may be, you end up with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (two of those three), Houston, Kansas City, San Diego, and possibly even Miami or another surprise team (New York? Tennessee?) fighting for two spots. Both of them going to the West again seems far-fetched.

The 2013-2014 SuiteSports NFL Awards

We're not going to hold you in suspense. Peyton Manning is our MVP, and he should be yours too.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Super Bowl week is now upon us, and SuiteSports will do its best to bring you Super Bowl-y content every day from here on out. But today, we wanted to focus on the incredible season that's been.

With that in mind, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello make their picks today for the 2013-14 NFL Award winners. Some of them, like MVP, were no-brainers, but what about Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year? Those were a little tougher, as several deserving candidates emerged throughout the course of 2013.

So who did our editors go with? Find out below.

Why Your Favorite AFC Team Will Make the Super Bowl Next Year

Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins could be playing on Super Sunday next year... No, seriously. Ok, maybe not that seriously.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

We've made it to that comfortable void between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, and two fan bases are in football fandom heaven right now.

Yep, those lucky bastards in Denver and Seattle get to dream about their team's Super Bowl date in just under two weeks, not to mention all the reminiscing they're already doing about the 2013 season and accompanying postseason. You see, making the Super Bowl is such a huge accomplishment, that the season is already a success for both this teams. After all, Peyton Manning did beat Tom Brady to get here, and the Seahawks got to defeat, then totally belittle, the hated 49ers to make Super Sunday.

Only a New England Patriots fan could complain about just making the Super Bowl.

AFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

Can Kansas City sack duo Justin Houston and Tamba Hali stop Andrew Luck?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, the regular season is over.

We both finished up the season on a strong note - Jeremy went 10-6 against the spread in Week 17 to finish at 118-129-11, for a winning percentage of .484. Joe finished up with a 11-5 week to finish at 125-122-11, cracking the .500 mark for the first time all season.

(In Jeremy's defense, several of his Week 17 picks were made solely to disagree with Joe in an effort to gain ground, and as it turned out all three of those picks - Washington over New York, Arizona over San Francisco, and St. Louis over Seattle - went wrong. Jeremy could have finished with a 13-3 Week 17 if not for his overly-competitive side trying to close Joe's lead. His loss.)

So Joe is our regular season champion. He's also in the lead in the Suite Sports Bowl Pick'em Challenge and will likely take home the crown unless Clemson beats Ohio State in the Orange Bowl and Auburn upsets Florida State in the National Championship game (not because Jeremy picked Auburn, but because Joe has the game worth 10 extra confidence points that Jeremy won't be able to make up).

So Jeremy's final hope to save his dignity is to beat Joe over the next 11-game sprint that is the NFL Playoffs.

NFL Week 16 Primer - .500 In Striking Range

Much like T-Sizzle and the Ravens, we've been on fire lately, and have a chance to finish the year strong.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Somehow, inexplicably, we enter Week 16 with a legitimate chance to finish the year at .500 (or better!). There are 32 games left to be played, and I currently sit 11 games under .500, Joe just three (!!!). So if Joe goes 18-14 or better (very possible), he'll get into the black. I need to go 22-10 over the next two weeks (snowball's chance in hell).

Just as surprising has been Joe's roaring comeback to take the lead in our head-to-head standings. Following Week 5, I held a two-game lead in our disagreements and held that lead for nearly two months before Joe started cleaning up - a 3-0 record in Week 12, followed by a 3-1-1 showing in Week 13 and a 2-0 sweep in Week 14. Now Joe has the upper hand and a four-game lead in disagreements (and thus, overall records).

Joe could play coy and just agree with all of my picks (as I always submit my picks first) to ensure that he wins the competition between us. But I know that his competitive nature and his deep-seeded desire to break .500 for the season will keep him honest (note: I'm writing this paragraph before I know what Joe's picks are - if he double-crosses me and agrees with everything I'm going to fire him).

So Joe is chasing .500; I'm chasing the head-to-head crown. Two men enter. One man leaves [with his dignity].

NFL Week 13 (And NCAA Rivalry Weekend) Primer - Give Thanks For Football

Dude, how the hell does our game suddenly matter?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Thanksgiving is a special day.

Not only do you get to see your whole family (which, admittedly, is not a positive for all people), but it kicks off a four-day weekend of nothing but football. It's a lovely football sandwich, with NFL on Thursday and Sunday, and college on Friday and Saturday (this year's Thanksgiving Friday NCAA slate is highlighted by Arkansas-LSU and Oregon State-Oregon, with Iowa-Nebraska and Miami-Pittsburgh rounding out the un-ranked matchups). And the Saturday after Thanksgiving is rivalry week - Alabama-Auburn. Florida-Florida State. Ohio State-Michigan. Clemson-South Carolina. UCLA-USC. Universities of Georgia and Virginia playing their respective Techs (yeah, this is an NFL picks column, but rivalry week is always fun - see the bonus picks at the end).

NFL Week 11 Primer - GAMES THAT MATTER HURRAY

Cam Newton has the Panthers looking towards the playoffs.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've finally crossed the halfway point of the season, in that every team in the league has played more than half of their schedule. It's a bit unfortunate that it took that long before we finally got to the meat of the league's schedule, but we're not here to complain. We're happy people. Good football is finally here, and we're going to enjoy it.

We're starting to get some separation from the pack - there seem to be four sure-fire playoff teams in each conference: Kansas City, Denver, New England, and Indianapolis in the AFC, Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Carolina in the NFC. The AFC North is still (somehow) up for grabs, the NFC North has three teams within a game of each other in various states of infirm, and the Cowboys and Eagles will slap-fight each other for the right to be the No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, the bad teams seem to have entrenched themselves in terrible-ness, the only unknown left is which mediocre team(s) will rise to the occasion to snag a playoff berth and/or trip up a favorite looking to lock down a first-round bye.

Of those eight sure-fire (or, at the very least, overwhelmingly likely) playoff teams, there are a whopping TEN games between them over the next seven weeks. They are:

Chiefs at Broncos, 49ers at Saints, Patriots at Panthers (Week 11); Broncos at Patriots (Week 12); Broncos at Chiefs, Saints at Seahawks (Week 13); Panthers at Saints, Seahawks at 49ers (Week 14); Saints at Panthers, Colts at Chiefs (Week 16)

Weeks 15 and 17 have (seemingly) empty slates, but Week 17 could have two do-or-die games for playoff spots in the NFC North (Packers at Bears) and NFC East (Eagles at Cowboys). We're in for a good run.

Weekend Football Roundup: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Talk about an OFFENSIVE lineman, AMIRITE? But seriously, this is no laughing matter.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Every Tuesday during football season, editors Jeremy and Joe will bring you the good, the bad and the ugly from the college and pro football weekend that was.

The Good

The Patriots Offense

Where did this come from?

In their last two games, the Patriots had gained just 295 yards in a loss to the Jets and 252 yards in a win over Miami. Then they explode for 610 yards against Pittsburgh, scoring 55 points in the process, the most points scored by any team this season.

The key for the turnaround was health, plain and simple. For the first time all season, the Patriots had Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski at 100% effectiveness, and they were able to take advantage of it.

The Official NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks)

The Eagles will look to come out on top against their former coach Thursday night.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In a lot of ways, Week 3 is just as hard to figure out as Week 2. In Week 2, you're weighing Week 1 against your pre-conceived biases that you held entering the season. In Week 3, you're weighing Week 2 against the preconceived biases that you developed after weighing your pre-conceived biases from pre-season against Week 1.

If that makes sense.

Long and Suite Preview: The AFC West

Peyton Manning and the Broncos look to repeat as AFC West champions.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

While pretty much everybody expects Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to take care of business in the AFC West this season, the division is not devoid of story lines.

Among them will be how the Broncos deal with the loss of pass rusher Elvis Dumervil (To a paperwork delay, no less), and the six-game absence of rising star Von Miller on the other side of the defense. Miller was suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

After the Broncos, it's a cluster of teams that have underachieved on a grand scale in recent years, headlined by San Diego and "guy we thought would be an elite quarterback by now," Phillip Rivers. The Raiders seem to always have speed, but production has failed to follow athleticism to Oakland. Members of the Black Hole might not recognize the product on the field this season, particularly on defense, where the Silver and Black look to replace as many as nine starters.

Then you have a new era beginning in Kansas City, and suddenly the Chiefs are a trendy playoff pick due to the additions of head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith.

2013: A Draft Mockery

By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

I'm not going to lie, as much as I love the NFL Draft, I like mock drafts even more.

Not that the first round of the draft isn't captivating television. In fact, it is probably far too interesting considering that it isn't even an actual sporting event. But still, the draft moves at a snail's pace, and the only thing that can keep your attention is when somebody falls down the board like a rock.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind, and I guess it's probably even more fun when the guy who falls is going to suck, like Brady Quinn. Either way, unless there's a huge compelling trade that swaps a ton of picks and significant players, there isn't much to do between picks other than talk about who is losing money and stare at Mel Kiper's hair.

Well, sit idly by no more, because I bring you 2013: A Draft Mockery, complete with free falling players, fake dead girlfriends and mocking descriptions of team needs.

Most of them aren't that clever.

Alex Smith Trade Shows the Direction of Two Franchises

Swapping Alex Smith for a 2nd round pick was a coup for the 49ers.

By Joe Parello

The 49ers have just shipped quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2nd round pick in the 2013 draft, and a conditional mid-round pick in 2014.

The fact that the Niners were able to get a 2nd round pick for a backup that has exactly one year of decent football to his name speaks volumes about the direction they are heading. But, the fact that the Chiefs are investing in a backup-quality player with one decent year of football to his name (Uh, Matt Cassel deja vu?) says even more about how this organization has taken a 10 win team from 2010 and made it one of the league's worst.