Good Help is Hard to Find: The Great Quarterback Search of 2016

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Ed. Note- Since the posting of this article, the Browns have signed Robert Griffin III to a 2-year, $15 million contract, because of course they have.

We all know that quarterback is the most important position, not just in football, but in all of American sports.

The guy touches the ball (almost) every play, is responsible with making pre-snap reads/adjustments, needs to put the ball in the hands of his team's play makers, typically serves as the face of the franchise, and generally sets the tone for everything his coach wants to do offensively.

With all that in mind, it's pretty easy to see why players like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger have all signed $100 million deals in recent years. Heck, it's even understandable that players like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have as well. At least they've proven to their teams they can win championships.

But in every NFL team's desperate search to find its next franchise quarterback, the market has gotten a little out of whack.

Bob Lobel: A Mediocre Bowl

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Peyton Manning's last pass went for two points. 

Maybe he didn’t play like a Hall of Famer, but he didn’t play like a college freshman either. Did they do the "going to Disneyland" thing with MVP Von Miller? I might have missed it. 

People are actually whining about Peyton's poorly disguised plugs for Budweiser and Papa John's. So what? Maybe he had a going away list. 

He should have thanked the chemists and medical folks who procured the HGH, or whatever got him back on the field after neck surgery.

Is "Defense Wins Championships" Back?

Von Miller and Denver's top-ranked defense made life miserable for newly crowned NFL MVP Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Behind the strength of a remarkable pass rush, Denver again pulled off a stunning upset, this time knocking off the favored Panthers in Super Bowl 50 by a final score of 24-10.

Pass rusher Von Miller was named the game's MVP after collecting 2.5 sacks and forcing a pair of fumbles, one of which was recovered by Malik Jackson for a touchdown. Denver sacked NFL MVP Cam Newton an astonishing seven times, with 13 quarterback hits, and held Newton without a passing or rushing touchdown after the Panthers star combined for 50 in the previous 18 games this year.

Much like Tom Brady two weeks prior, Newton was constantly under fire, and never got comfortable against Denver's top-ranked defense, turning the ball over three times after a year where he averaged less than one giveaway per game.

It got a lot of people thinking, in this era of exploding offensive numbers, is the "defense wins championships" mantra back?

Well, even before the game you probably could have said that. After all, despite the quarterback riddled story lines of Super Bowl 50, both the Broncos and Panthers were anchored by fantastic defenses. And, lest we forget, the historically good Seahawks defense won the championship in 2013, and was a crazy goal line interception away from winning another in 2014.

Your Super Bowl 50 Primer

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're finally here.

We have reached the last weekend of the NFL season, and what a long, strange trip it's been. Both of these teams got off to a hot start and never really looked back; they clinched the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences and then took care of business at home in the playoffs. Now we head to San(ta Clara) Francisco for all the marbles.

There are a ton of fun story lines for this Super Bowl, but we won't waste any time talking about them here, especially when we already spent way too much time earlier this week talking about them on our podcast. Here, we'll just worry about the x's and o's.

In our "By The Numbers" sections for these playoffs, we've been posting records (both straight up and against the spread) for how each team performs at home or on the road (depending on where the game is being played). Here, we've designated both teams as being "home." Historically speaking, teams playing on neutral fields perform closer to how they do at home than how they do on the road. I'm not sure why that is, but that's what I read somewhere. So there.

Denver vs. Carolina (6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Panthers by 4.5
Current Line: Panthers by 5.5

By The Numbers:

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th)

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

Super Bowl 50 Prop Bet Gambling Extravaganza

The Sportsbook at the MGM Grand. The happiest place on Earth.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Super Bowl Sunday is the greatest Sunday of the year for many reasons (closely edging Father's Day, which closely edges Mother's Day, which closely edges Arbor Day), but the greatest reason it's the greatest Sunday of the year is because it is the gambling capital of the year. No day sees more money placed on the line than Super Bowl Sunday.

We're here to break down all the great prop bets for the weekend - some you should bet on, some you shouldn't bet on, some you consider betting on, and some you should throw yourself in front of a god damn truck if you consider betting on. And just so we're clear, I've listed maybe 0.5% of the total prop bets in this post. There are literally hundreds of them. I tried to parse through the entire list but my ears started bleeding and I took that as a sign to stop. If you have further questions, reach out to me on Twitter and I'll tell you how much of a degenerate gambler you are.

Let's start with the old standby:

Player To Score First Touchdown

This is consistently my favorite prop bet every year. I usually win it by spreading smart money across two or three choices. This year, I'm going to give you just my best value bet, and my smart-money pick, but not before we go through all the choices.

Obligatory Peyton Manning-Tom Brady "Legacy" Blog

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Denver Broncos' relentless pass rush and play making secondary propelled them to Super Bowl 50 yesterday in an upset win over the visiting New England Patriots.

Or, as every other sports headline tells it: Peyton Manning defeated Tom Brady in the 17th meeting between two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

Manning will move onto his fourth Super Bowl, and will be the oldest quarterback to ever start on Super Sunday. Furthermore, he improved his record against Brady to 6-11, and has gone an even 5-5 against Tom Terrific in their last 10 meetings, including three postseason wins in a row against his nemesis.

Despite the overall record, Manning actually now leads the all-time postseason series 3-2, and hasn't lost to Brady in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

Who cares that this game was about far more than these two guys, as both defenses played lights out, let the quarterback debate rage on!

On one side, you have Tom Brady, with his four Super Bowl wins, two league MVPs and what I would call the greatest quarterback career résumé in NFL history.

On the other side, Peyton Manning and his league-record five MVPs, to go with numerous all-time passing records, now a winning postseason record against Brady and his one Super Bowl (hey, he might get another one).

Bob Lobel: Patriot Pain

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

That was difficult to watch.

Even after Gronk caught the TD to get it to 20-18, somewhere in your head you knew the two-point conversion was anything but what you wanted to rely on to get to overtime.

It's a testament to this team that they even had a chance to be in that position. Gronk and Brady got them there. Gronkowski and Gostkowski kinda were at both ends of the spectrum. Gronk and Gost.

You know, you just take your kicker who never misses for granted... 

Your AFC Championship Primer

Have you heard? Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are playing in this game!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Eight down, three to go.

Jeremy extended his lead in Round 2. Both Jeremy and Joe picked all four winners correctly, but Jeremy had a Pittsburgh cover over Denver, while Joe did not. Jeremy stands 8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, leading Joe's 7-1 straight up, 3-5 against the spread (we both had Arizona winning and covering against Green Bay. They did win, but they didn't cover their seven-point spread).

Both conferences have played out exactly the same. All four road teams won in Round 1, and all four home teams won in Round 2, leaving us with the top two seeds in each conference squaring off. Where the conferences differ is the AFC matchup features the longest-tenured rivalry in pro football.

The Brady-Manning Opus is well-tread ground (Joe went into greater detail about them two years ago, and wrote a piece on the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history in honor of that Brady-Manning AFC title game), so let's not waste any breath regurgitating it.

Suffice it to say, they are the two best quarterbacks of their generation, and when they face off against each other, the games are usually fairly entertaining. Both favorites this week are giving exactly three points - fundamentally, the purest gambling line that exists - but we'll start here with the aforementioned AFC contest.

New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Patriots by 3.5
Current Line: Patriots by 3

By The Numbers:

New England: 
Record: 12-4 Overall, 5-3 Away; 7-6-3 Against The Spread; 3-5 Away
Average Score: 29.1 (3rd) - 19.7 (10th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (3rd); 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.4% Offense (5th); -3.4% Defense (12th); +3.9% Special Teams (5th); +22.6% Overall (6th)

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th) 

Your Sunday Divisional Round Primer

Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin has been on a tear lately, but how will he fare against Carolina All-Pro corner Josh Norman?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In case you missed it yesterday, we posted our preview of Saturday's games, with picks included. This post will cover Sunday's games, and let's not bother wasting any time.

Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Opening Line: Panthers by 3
Current Line: Panthers by 1.5

By The Numbers:

Seattle:
Record: 10-6 Overall, 5-3 Away; 8-7-1 Against the Spread, 4-3-1 Away
Average Score: 26.4 (4th) - 17.3 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.1 (4th); 11.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +18.5% Offense (2nd); -15.2% Defense (4th); +4.2% Special Teams (3rd); +38.0% Overall (1st) 

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

Player(s) to Watch (SEA): Russell Okung, Garry Gilliam

You don't think of Russell Wilson as a quarterback who takes a pounding, but the fact of the matter is, Wilson was sacked the third-most of any quarterback in the league, with a sack-per-dropback rate that was the 5th-most frequent of regular starters. When you adjust for certain inequalities (for example, the quarterback is much more likely to be sacked when the defense blitzes, and the quarterback is much more likely to be sacked on 3rd-and-10 than 3rd-and-3), Seattle ranked 30th of 32 teams in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate - only Tennessee and San Francisco were worse.

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Well, Another AFC Shakeup

The Pittsburgh offense has been on a tear, but can they score on Denver's top-ranked defense?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Just when we thought the AFC couldn't get any weirder, it goes and does something like this.

One week after a shocking New England loss at home to Philadelphia sent the Patriots tumbling all the way down to the No. 3 seed, the Bengals and Broncos both suffered shocking home losses of their own (you could argue that Cincinnati's was slightly less shocking, but getting blown out and losing your starting quarterback to injury certainly qualifies as shocking).

And so, New England is back in the driver's seat in the AFC. Cincinnati's offense is thrown into a great deal of havoc without Andy Dalton, and Denver's offense is back to appearing eminently stoppable. Meanwhile, the two hottest teams in the conference are Kansas City and Pittsburgh, who have combined to win 11 of their last 12 games (four of five for Pittsburgh, seven straight for the Chiefs) and suddenly present two semi-realistic scenarios for an AFC team to win three straight road games and advance to the Super Bowl, an idea that seemed ludicrous a month ago. And somehow, the Jets are still in the mix (and entering this week, hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC).

And holy mother of god, does the entire AFC South need to be banished to the Arena League. The Colts sit at 6-7, with a scoring margin of -81 on the season, and STILL somehow hold the division lead. And the Jaguars are still mathematically alive. I need a drink.

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): And the Race is On

Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis with the chance to break two of the NFL's most significant records against his old team.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) 

It's crazy to think, but the NFL season is now half-done, and playoff races are already in full swing. While a bunch of divisions are wrapped up, as we said last week, there are still some exciting divisional races, as well as Wild Card battles, going on in both conferences.

I won't waste any more of your time, here are our games of the week and picks against the spread.

Game(s) of The Week

Oakland at Pittsburgh (1 pm, Sunday, CBS)

Beaten and bruised Pittsburgh renews its rivalry with now up-and-coming Oakland in the Steel City. It may seem like a breakthrough for the Raiders to beat the Steelers, but Oakland has actually won the last two against Pittsburgh, a streak the Steelers will want to break at home.

The winner here would get big boost in the race for an AFC Wild Card spot.

NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): A Premature End to Division Races?

Will the return of Ben Roethlisberger make Pittsburgh a legitimate player in the AFC North, or will Cincinnati all but lock up the division with a win Sunday?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're only in Week 8, and a bunch of divisional races may already be over. As crazy as it sounds, the Bengals can grab a stranglehold on the AFC North with a win in Pittsburgh this week, stretching their lead to three games over the Steelers with a victory.

But this isn't unique to one division. We pretty much pencil in New England as the AFC East champ every year, and this season the Patriots have etched it in stone before midseason. Their win over the Dolphins gave them a a two-game lead and the tie-breaker over Buffalo, while the Broncos can all but wrap up the AFC West with a win and Raiders loss this week.

Let's not even talk about the AFC South, which is competitive, but features some of the worst teams in football. When 1-5 Tennessee is only two games out of first place, you've got some problems.

In the NFC things are a bit more competitive, with an NFC South race between Carolina and Atlanta that could bring some high drama, and an NFC West led by Arizona, but with Seattle and St. Louis coming on strong. The NFC North is Green Bay's once again, and the NFC East is as unpredictable, and horrible, as it has been in a while.

With all that in mind, let's take a look at the games that already have playoff implications.

2015 NFL Power Poll No. 1

That's the look of a man who knows his team isn't No. 1 in the Power Rankings

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

With just about a third of the season under our belt, we decided the time was ripe to do things the old fashioned way and just rank all 32 teams in the league (we will likely do this again in another five weeks, give or take, so stay tuned). However, being the long-winded and argumentative individuals that we are, we just couldn't decide on the order we wanted to use. So we settled it like men. We each made our own list and published them side-by-side. Jeremy's list is on the left, Joe's is on the right, and you can see that because they are labeled.

Keep in mind that we didn't devise any new metric for measuring success in the NFL. There is obviously some quantitative analysis (at the very least, we both looked at win-loss records, plus some other stuff), but for the most part, it's a purely qualitative set of rankings. We have arranged the league in tiers (some larger than others), and provided reasonings for a team's placement when necessary. Dig in:

Inside the Film Room: Breaking Down Key Plays from NFL Week 5

Dion Lewis has given the Pats an unexpected boost this year, but how did he get free Sunday against Dallas?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

This will serve as the first edition of what I hope will be a weekly series breaking down some of the biggest plays across pro football, using the coach's tape, or as it is now more popularly known, the "All-22" film.

Each week we'll take a look at not only game-changing plays, but also plays that utilized interesting schemes or simply showcased dominating talent. I won't bore you any more, here are the breakdowns from Week 5.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC West

 By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Daphne and I have already broken down both the AFC East and the NFC East, so we'll move west to close out the week with a look at the AFC West.

The division is home to two quarterbacks that should again put up big numbers in Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers, along with one of the league's better game managers in Alex Smith and, perhaps, an up-and-coming star in Oakland's Derek Carr.

The division is not as cut and dry as it has been the past few years, however, as concerns over Manning's age and health, along with a transition to new coach Gary Kubiak, have many feeling that the Broncos can be beaten.

Will there be a changing of the guard out west? Daphne and I investigate.

What Should Peyton Manning Do Now?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There will obviously be much discussion today about the future of Peyton Manning, following his lackluster performance in Denver's Divisional Round loss to Indianapolis.

It was also revealed today by ESPN's Adam Schefter that Manning had played the final month of the season with a torn quad, which makes sense to anybody who watched the Broncos, because Manning just did not look right at all down the stretch.

At the age of 38, and coming off a major injury and playoff disappointment, I don't have a clue what Peyton Manning will do, but I have some ideas about what he should do.

It would be somewhat fitting for Manning's final game to come against his old team, and in a "passing of the torch" game, no less, but there's also the possibility the old man comes back for one more shot at a title with the Broncos next season.

Those seem to be the two most likely options, but I'm here to tell you that, if Peyton wants to win another championship (basically the only reason he's still playing), he needs to borrow the strategies of another aging legendary quarterback, and those of a transcendent NBA superstar.

Obviously, I'm talking about Brett Favre and LeBron James.

AFC Divisional Weekend Preview

Time to bust out those stupid two-team jerseys Indy fans, your Colts are playing Peyton this week!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Four down, seven to go.

Jeremy swept his straight-up picks last week, Joe went 3-1. Both went 2-2 against the spread. (Jeremy had Carolina winning but Arizona covering. Joe had Arizona winning outright. Both nailed Baltimore and Indianapolis, but both though Dallas would cover against Detroit.)

With that said, there's a whole new slate of games this week, featuring four teams we saw last week and four teams we didn't. With the AFC slated to start first this weekend, we kick off our coverage with the opening game Saturday.

(Quick note - the "DVOA" stat in the "By The Numbers" section is the stat created by Football Outsiders to measure value on a per-play basis. Positive numbers means more points, so for Defensive DVOA, a negative score is better.)

Baltimore at New England (4:35 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Patriots by 7

By The Numbers:

Baltimore:
Record: 10-6 (7-8-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.6 (8th) - 18.9 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.7 (6th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.7% Offense (9th); -4.6% Defense (8th); +8.0% Special Teams (2nd); +22.2% Total (5th)

New England:
Record: 12-4 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 29.2 (4th) - 19.6 (8th)
Avergae Scoring Margin: +9.7 (1st) - 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +13.6% Offense (6th); -3.4% Defense (11th); +5.5% Special Teams (5th); +22.4% Total (4th)

Lobel's Question of the Week: Would You Sign Ray Rice?

Every week, legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel wants to hear your opinion on something that caught his eye over the weekend.

Though the Patriots and teams like the Broncos have found ways to run the ball with castoffs, undrafted free agents and unheralded homegrown talent, there are teams in the playoff hunt that could use some help at running back.

Teams like the Indianapolis Colts, who are relying on first-round bust Trent Richardson to carry the ball, or the Arizona Cardinals, who have seen Andre Ellington's ineffectiveness amplified by the absence of starting quarterback Carson Palmer.

Those are just two of many teams within striking distance of the postseason that may be interested in a talented and experienced running back. Luckily for them, one is available.

NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Byes Are Over; NFC South Still Sucks; Thanksgiving

Can Aaron Rodgers and the Pack cool off the red-hot Patriots?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Picks are out a day early this week, as most of you (and us) will be too busy gorging on poultry (or preparing to gorge on poultry, or traveling to a place where you plan to gorge on poultry) come Thursday to read our incessant rambling.

Bye weeks are over, which means from here on out, we get a full slate for the rest of the season. The bad news means that now that bye weeks are over, we're guaranteed to see all four NFC South teams play every week.

NFL Week 12 Primer (With Picks): Your Team is Probably Still Alive

Cheer up Cam! Your horrendous disappointment of a team is only one game out of hosting a playoff game!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Anybody who thinks the NFL needs to add another Wild Card team to increase excitement around the league is being thoroughly refuted this year. 11 weeks into the year and virtually the entire AFC is still in playoff contention.

Seriously, look at the standings. As long as you don't root for the Jets, Jags, Titans or Raiders, your team has a shot! The 12 other teams in the AFC are .500 or better, which is absolutely crazy at this point in the year.

The NFC doesn't have as many teams at .500 (just seven) but, thanks to the dumpster fire that is the NFC South, all four awful teams are still alive. The Falcons and Saints have limped to 4-6, while Carolina, as horrible a disappointment as it has been, sits only a game out of first place at 3-7.

And here is my "oh my God this needs to happen" realization of the week: The Bucs are only two games out of HOSTING a playoff game. Oh my God, this needs to happen! Please Tampa Bay, go 4-2 the rest of the way and somehow win this awful division at 6-10!

I look forward to seeing you lose by 50 at home in the first round.

Anyways, the point is that with 19 teams at .500 or better, and four teams kept alive by a historically bad division, there are 23 fan bases all still thinking about postseason football. That's nearly 3/4ths of the league, so chances are your team is playing a pretty important game this week. Heck, the only teams that are actually eliminated mathematically so far are the Raiders, Jaguars, Titans and Jets, so you go crazy with hope Bears/Vikings/Rams/Giants/Redskins fans!

-Joe

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 76-83-2
Home Dogs, Last Week: 2-1
Home Dogs, Season: 19-26-1

Game(s) of The Week:

Detroit @ New England (1 pm Sunday. FOX)

Detroit couldn't seize control of the NFC last week against Arizona, but a win against AFC favorite New England will go a long way toward earning national respect. As of now, the Lions come into Gillette as a touchdown dog, and with the Patriots riding a five-game winning streak, it's easy to see why.