Bob Lobel: A Mediocre Bowl

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Peyton Manning's last pass went for two points. 

Maybe he didn’t play like a Hall of Famer, but he didn’t play like a college freshman either. Did they do the "going to Disneyland" thing with MVP Von Miller? I might have missed it. 

People are actually whining about Peyton's poorly disguised plugs for Budweiser and Papa John's. So what? Maybe he had a going away list. 

He should have thanked the chemists and medical folks who procured the HGH, or whatever got him back on the field after neck surgery.

Your 10 Favorite Super Bowl Moments

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Every few years, my birthday falls on Super Bowl Sunday.

Now, you would think the universe would reward me for this arbitrary fact by putting my beloved Steelers in the big game on those years, but we all know life isn't fair and that bad things happen to good people all the time.

But I digress.

Still, since I'm a good dude, and because it's the 50th anniversary of the Super Bowl, I've compiled my list of YOUR 10 favorite big game moments. Sure, I have my favorite memories, but this is about you, the reader.

So, without further ado, here are those 10 moments you'll never forget.

Your Super Bowl 50 Primer

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're finally here.

We have reached the last weekend of the NFL season, and what a long, strange trip it's been. Both of these teams got off to a hot start and never really looked back; they clinched the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences and then took care of business at home in the playoffs. Now we head to San(ta Clara) Francisco for all the marbles.

There are a ton of fun story lines for this Super Bowl, but we won't waste any time talking about them here, especially when we already spent way too much time earlier this week talking about them on our podcast. Here, we'll just worry about the x's and o's.

In our "By The Numbers" sections for these playoffs, we've been posting records (both straight up and against the spread) for how each team performs at home or on the road (depending on where the game is being played). Here, we've designated both teams as being "home." Historically speaking, teams playing on neutral fields perform closer to how they do at home than how they do on the road. I'm not sure why that is, but that's what I read somewhere. So there.

Denver vs. Carolina (6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Panthers by 4.5
Current Line: Panthers by 5.5

By The Numbers:

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th)

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

The Over Thought Podcast: Over Thinking the Super Bowl

On this week's episode of The Over Thought Podcast, the gang tackles the Super Bowl and football at large.

How has Super Sunday become an unofficial holiday in the United States, and what are some cultural implications of both the game and NFL? Plus, some obligatory comparisons to religion and politics, along with putting Cam Newton and Peyton Manning into boxes days before their show down in Super Bowl 50.

Check out our latest episode below, and give us a "like" on Facebook for the latest content.

Bob Lobel: Sunday Seems Less than Super

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Admit it, the spark isn’t there for Sunday. 

It's number 50, but it seems less than super. Maybe  we could increase interest if Donald Trump bought an ad, with his own money of course, to be live on the field for 60 seconds. That’s all the time he needs to make his point. 

He has lots of friends that are athletes, by the way, simply because he  gives them free golf. Nothing wrong with that.

Remember, he hired Flutie top be his quarterback in some league that nobody can remember existed. He loves Brady, and Manning too.

As for the game itself, why are people even picking Denver? That’s crazy. 

Obligatory Peyton Manning-Tom Brady "Legacy" Blog

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Denver Broncos' relentless pass rush and play making secondary propelled them to Super Bowl 50 yesterday in an upset win over the visiting New England Patriots.

Or, as every other sports headline tells it: Peyton Manning defeated Tom Brady in the 17th meeting between two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

Manning will move onto his fourth Super Bowl, and will be the oldest quarterback to ever start on Super Sunday. Furthermore, he improved his record against Brady to 6-11, and has gone an even 5-5 against Tom Terrific in their last 10 meetings, including three postseason wins in a row against his nemesis.

Despite the overall record, Manning actually now leads the all-time postseason series 3-2, and hasn't lost to Brady in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

Who cares that this game was about far more than these two guys, as both defenses played lights out, let the quarterback debate rage on!

On one side, you have Tom Brady, with his four Super Bowl wins, two league MVPs and what I would call the greatest quarterback career résumé in NFL history.

On the other side, Peyton Manning and his league-record five MVPs, to go with numerous all-time passing records, now a winning postseason record against Brady and his one Super Bowl (hey, he might get another one).

Bob Lobel: Patriot Pain

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

That was difficult to watch.

Even after Gronk caught the TD to get it to 20-18, somewhere in your head you knew the two-point conversion was anything but what you wanted to rely on to get to overtime.

It's a testament to this team that they even had a chance to be in that position. Gronk and Brady got them there. Gronkowski and Gostkowski kinda were at both ends of the spectrum. Gronk and Gost.

You know, you just take your kicker who never misses for granted... 

Your AFC Championship Primer

Have you heard? Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are playing in this game!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Eight down, three to go.

Jeremy extended his lead in Round 2. Both Jeremy and Joe picked all four winners correctly, but Jeremy had a Pittsburgh cover over Denver, while Joe did not. Jeremy stands 8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, leading Joe's 7-1 straight up, 3-5 against the spread (we both had Arizona winning and covering against Green Bay. They did win, but they didn't cover their seven-point spread).

Both conferences have played out exactly the same. All four road teams won in Round 1, and all four home teams won in Round 2, leaving us with the top two seeds in each conference squaring off. Where the conferences differ is the AFC matchup features the longest-tenured rivalry in pro football.

The Brady-Manning Opus is well-tread ground (Joe went into greater detail about them two years ago, and wrote a piece on the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history in honor of that Brady-Manning AFC title game), so let's not waste any breath regurgitating it.

Suffice it to say, they are the two best quarterbacks of their generation, and when they face off against each other, the games are usually fairly entertaining. Both favorites this week are giving exactly three points - fundamentally, the purest gambling line that exists - but we'll start here with the aforementioned AFC contest.

New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Patriots by 3.5
Current Line: Patriots by 3

By The Numbers:

New England: 
Record: 12-4 Overall, 5-3 Away; 7-6-3 Against The Spread; 3-5 Away
Average Score: 29.1 (3rd) - 19.7 (10th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (3rd); 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.4% Offense (5th); -3.4% Defense (12th); +3.9% Special Teams (5th); +22.6% Overall (6th)

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th) 

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC West

 By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Daphne and I have already broken down both the AFC East and the NFC East, so we'll move west to close out the week with a look at the AFC West.

The division is home to two quarterbacks that should again put up big numbers in Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers, along with one of the league's better game managers in Alex Smith and, perhaps, an up-and-coming star in Oakland's Derek Carr.

The division is not as cut and dry as it has been the past few years, however, as concerns over Manning's age and health, along with a transition to new coach Gary Kubiak, have many feeling that the Broncos can be beaten.

Will there be a changing of the guard out west? Daphne and I investigate.

The Greatest Quarterback Careers in NFL History

Clockwise from top left: Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Johnny Unitas and "Slingin' Sammy" Baugh.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The day after New England snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Super Bowl 49, I proclaimed to my dozen or so Twitter followers that Tom Brady now had the best résumé of any quarterback in NFL history.

Note that I didn't say he was the best quarterback the league had ever seen, that debate is far too subjective and there have been so many great ones, but it seemed logical that Brady had now checked off every box on his career checklist.

Absurd regular season numbers and MVP awards? Check. Every relevant postseason passing record and a record-tying four Super Bowl wins in a record six appearances? Check. A record-tying three Super Bowl MVP awards? Check. Arguably the greatest quarterback season ever in 2007 (not to mention an absurd 2010)? Check. Winning record against the "other" great QB of his era, Peyton Manning? Check.

While you could make a case that a number of other quarterbacks are "better" (however you define that), it's hard to make the case that any of them had a better career than Brady.


Or did they?

What Should Peyton Manning Do Now?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There will obviously be much discussion today about the future of Peyton Manning, following his lackluster performance in Denver's Divisional Round loss to Indianapolis.

It was also revealed today by ESPN's Adam Schefter that Manning had played the final month of the season with a torn quad, which makes sense to anybody who watched the Broncos, because Manning just did not look right at all down the stretch.

At the age of 38, and coming off a major injury and playoff disappointment, I don't have a clue what Peyton Manning will do, but I have some ideas about what he should do.

It would be somewhat fitting for Manning's final game to come against his old team, and in a "passing of the torch" game, no less, but there's also the possibility the old man comes back for one more shot at a title with the Broncos next season.

Those seem to be the two most likely options, but I'm here to tell you that, if Peyton wants to win another championship (basically the only reason he's still playing), he needs to borrow the strategies of another aging legendary quarterback, and those of a transcendent NBA superstar.

Obviously, I'm talking about Brett Favre and LeBron James.

AFC Divisional Weekend Preview

Time to bust out those stupid two-team jerseys Indy fans, your Colts are playing Peyton this week!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Four down, seven to go.

Jeremy swept his straight-up picks last week, Joe went 3-1. Both went 2-2 against the spread. (Jeremy had Carolina winning but Arizona covering. Joe had Arizona winning outright. Both nailed Baltimore and Indianapolis, but both though Dallas would cover against Detroit.)

With that said, there's a whole new slate of games this week, featuring four teams we saw last week and four teams we didn't. With the AFC slated to start first this weekend, we kick off our coverage with the opening game Saturday.

(Quick note - the "DVOA" stat in the "By The Numbers" section is the stat created by Football Outsiders to measure value on a per-play basis. Positive numbers means more points, so for Defensive DVOA, a negative score is better.)

Baltimore at New England (4:35 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Patriots by 7

By The Numbers:

Baltimore:
Record: 10-6 (7-8-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.6 (8th) - 18.9 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.7 (6th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.7% Offense (9th); -4.6% Defense (8th); +8.0% Special Teams (2nd); +22.2% Total (5th)

New England:
Record: 12-4 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 29.2 (4th) - 19.6 (8th)
Avergae Scoring Margin: +9.7 (1st) - 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +13.6% Offense (6th); -3.4% Defense (11th); +5.5% Special Teams (5th); +22.4% Total (4th)

Football's Holiday Gifts

Peyton Manning was in the giving mood Monday night, giving the ball away four times while handing the Bengals a playoff berth and the Patriots home field advantage.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Tonight we hit the true heart of the holiday season.

It's the final night of Chanukah, Christmas Eve eve and, for football fans, the beginning of the good part of bowl season, and the home stretch of the NFL regular season.

It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.

So, join me in taking a look at some gifts that have been given to several football teams, players and fan bases this holiday season.

Home Field Advantage

From: Peyton Manning
To: Tom Brady

Manning and Brady are supposed to be somewhat friendly, but it was surprising to see Peyton gift wrap the AFC's No. 1 seed for Tom with a four-interception stinker against the Bengals last night.

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): The More Things Change…

This was the least-flattering picture we could find of Tom Brady. Damn you beautiful man!

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We all know the NFL is a league of parity, where a team can rise from the bottom to the middle, from the middle to the top and, occasionally, from the bottom to the top in the span of a single season.

Just look at this week's Cowboys-Cardinals game in Dallas. Even after the 'Boys fell to Washington on Monday Night, this is the unquestioned game of the week, as the No. 1 spot in the NFC will be up for grabs. Who saw that coming?

But, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This week will also bring another installment in the historic Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning rivalry, with the winner putting his team in the driver's seat for home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. We'll also get a prime time game in Pittsburgh featuring the Steelers and Ravens duking it out for AFC North dominance.

Let's take a look at those games, plus our underdog update and weekly picks, below.

-Joe

Bob Lobel: The Yearly Drama of Brady vs Manning

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

It’s become clear from the comments on the poll that no NFL teams ever run up the score.

College, yes. High school, all the time. 

NFL Week 7 Primer (With Picks): Favorites Strike Back

So yeah, Peyton Manning was our "picks" picture last week, but he's now on the verge of history in our game of the week, plus he's coming off a win over a home underdog. Just read the article, you'll see how he fits all the themes...

  By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So much for the year of the underdog.

After starting the year on a tear, dogs are regressing to the mean, now virtually even with their favored counterparts in terms of covering spreads. Thus far, underdogs are 45-44-2 on the season. I'm no statistician, but I'm going to go ahead and say the one game difference in a sample size of 91 is not statistically significant.

Part of the reason for the regression was a catastrophic week for underdogs last week, particularly those dogs playing at home. Basically, Vegas is starting to figure out who is for real and who stinks, as underdogs went just 5-9-1 last week (Miami losing by three was the tie), with home dogs (the really bad teams) going 1-6-1.

Yeah, if you're giving points at home at this point in the year, chances are you aren't very good. It seems like Vegas is already accounting for this with bigger spreads. Last week, in a very favorite heavy set of lines, the average spread was 4.3 points, with only five spreads set at a touchdown/two field goals (6) or larger.

This week, the average spread has been bumped up to 5.6 points, and eight games feature spreads of six points or larger. Also, unlike last week, we have a double-digit spread (New England is -10 vs the Jets).

Let's move onto our complete underdogs update, our games of the week, our picks and updated pick records (we're tied!).

-Joe

America is Football Crazy, But You Can't Beat the NBA Offseason

The high-profile moves of the world's best player LeBron James (left) and ear blower Lance Stephenson (right) have contributed to the NBA's eventful offseason.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

I'm a football guy, but I guess that doesn't really say much anymore.

In America, we're pretty much all football guys. The ratings from NFL and college football broadcasts will back that up, as will the remarkable attendance numbers we hear every week from NFL and college mega-stadiums.

There is no question that football, particularly the NFL, is the king of our sports landscape. So, with training camps opening in the NFL and two-a-days looming for college ball, why the hell can I only think about basketball right now?

The NFL's Suite Stars 2013-14

If you didn't know him before this season, you know him now. Antonio Brown is legit.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Forget about the Pro Bowl and All Pro teams, we all know that the best players in the NFL yearn to make our Suite Stars team.

No need for elongated intros. Here are the best players in pro football at every position. Players listed under their respective positions in order of awesomeness.

Quarterback

1. Peyton Manning, Denver
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans

You could make a case for Tom Brady or Nick Foles here, but tough to go against Manning and Brees, considering what they meant to their teams.

Super Bowl Round Up: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

If you bet on the color of the Gatorade dump and chose orange thinking the Broncos would win... Well, you were sorta right.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During football season, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, bad, and ugly from the football weekend that was. Here is your Super Bowl Sunday roundup.

The Good

Cliff Avril

While there is plenty of credit to go around for Seattle's historic defensive effort Sunday night, I wanted to give a fellow Purdue alum a shout out.

Avril has been underrated since his college days, and is usually an afterthought, even when Purdue folks talk about their supposed "Den of Defensive Ends," taking a back seat to guys like Rosie Colvin, Anthony Spencer, Rob Ninkovich, Ryan Kerrigan and a guy he beat Sunday, Shaun Phillips.

Bob Lobel: A Super Letdown

By Bob Lobel  @boblobel

Never has so much been made about so little. 

Let that be the tag line to describe, for future generations, what Super Bowl XLVIII was all about. In the third quarter I wanted the people that came over to just go home. 

Was that so wrong? I was just living up to my wife’s opinion that I am one of the most anti-social human beings on the planet. Ok, last night I was. Not rude, just unsocial.