NFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): Favorites

Vic Beasley going against Seattle's struggling offensive line could be the story of Saturday afternoon.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Both Jeremy and Joe had success picking NFC games last weekend, zeroing in pretty quickly on the idea that Seattle was just a terrible matchup for Detroit, and that New York just didn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Green Bay.

Both home teams held court in the Wild Card round, but it seems like the top two seeds in the NFC are relatively beatable (especially considering Seattle already beat Atlanta this season and the Cowboys have averaged just 316 yards of total offense over their last six games, and the team they're playing against has now won seven straight games, and most of them have been rather convincing). The last time the No. 1 overall seed failed to make the Super Bowl from the NFC was 2012, so it remains to be seen if Dallas can keep the streak alive.

That's still a month away though. For now, we deal with Round 2.

Is "Defense Wins Championships" Back?

Von Miller and Denver's top-ranked defense made life miserable for newly crowned NFL MVP Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Behind the strength of a remarkable pass rush, Denver again pulled off a stunning upset, this time knocking off the favored Panthers in Super Bowl 50 by a final score of 24-10.

Pass rusher Von Miller was named the game's MVP after collecting 2.5 sacks and forcing a pair of fumbles, one of which was recovered by Malik Jackson for a touchdown. Denver sacked NFL MVP Cam Newton an astonishing seven times, with 13 quarterback hits, and held Newton without a passing or rushing touchdown after the Panthers star combined for 50 in the previous 18 games this year.

Much like Tom Brady two weeks prior, Newton was constantly under fire, and never got comfortable against Denver's top-ranked defense, turning the ball over three times after a year where he averaged less than one giveaway per game.

It got a lot of people thinking, in this era of exploding offensive numbers, is the "defense wins championships" mantra back?

Well, even before the game you probably could have said that. After all, despite the quarterback riddled story lines of Super Bowl 50, both the Broncos and Panthers were anchored by fantastic defenses. And, lest we forget, the historically good Seahawks defense won the championship in 2013, and was a crazy goal line interception away from winning another in 2014.

Your Sunday Divisional Round Primer

Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin has been on a tear lately, but how will he fare against Carolina All-Pro corner Josh Norman?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In case you missed it yesterday, we posted our preview of Saturday's games, with picks included. This post will cover Sunday's games, and let's not bother wasting any time.

Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Opening Line: Panthers by 3
Current Line: Panthers by 1.5

By The Numbers:

Seattle:
Record: 10-6 Overall, 5-3 Away; 8-7-1 Against the Spread, 4-3-1 Away
Average Score: 26.4 (4th) - 17.3 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.1 (4th); 11.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +18.5% Offense (2nd); -15.2% Defense (4th); +4.2% Special Teams (3rd); +38.0% Overall (1st) 

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

Player(s) to Watch (SEA): Russell Okung, Garry Gilliam

You don't think of Russell Wilson as a quarterback who takes a pounding, but the fact of the matter is, Wilson was sacked the third-most of any quarterback in the league, with a sack-per-dropback rate that was the 5th-most frequent of regular starters. When you adjust for certain inequalities (for example, the quarterback is much more likely to be sacked when the defense blitzes, and the quarterback is much more likely to be sacked on 3rd-and-10 than 3rd-and-3), Seattle ranked 30th of 32 teams in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate - only Tennessee and San Francisco were worse.

Your NFC Wild Card Primer

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins is pumped to be playing at home, where his team is 6-2 and he's posted a 117 passer rating this season. On the road Washington is just 3-5, with Cousins' passer rating dipping all the way to 87.7.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We kicked off our Wild Card Weekend preview yesterday with our AFC Primer. Both of us like the road teams on that side of the bracket. Here comes the NFC Primer, where again, both road teams are the nominal favorites.

All four road teams can't end up winning, can they?

A reminder, in case you missed the AFC Preview - the "DVOA" line in the "By The Numbers" section is the Football Outsiders' metric "Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average." It is designed to measure each team on a per-play basis, adjusted, obviously, for the opponent, but also for down and distance. For example, a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 against Seattle is a more valuable and/or meaningful play than a 11-yard gain on 4th-and-12 against New Orleans. DVOA accounts for those things. And positive numbers represent more yards/points, so a defense is better when it is further negative.

Let's dive right in. 

Inside the NFL Film Room: What is Wrong With Seattle?

After a Sunday night loss to Arizona, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks find themselves in uncharted waters: Fighting for their playoff lives.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

After back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, including a championship in 2013, Seattle now finds itself against the ropes in both the NFC West and conference at large.

With their loss to division rival Arizona Sunday, the Seahawks now sit at 4-5, a full three games behind the Cardinals (who own the tie-breaker over Seattle, for now) with just seven games to play. Perhaps even more shocking is that, if the season ended today, Seattle would miss the postseason. Seriously, the Seahawks are two games behind current Wild Card leaders Green Bay and Atlanta (both 6-3), and are currently losing conference tie-breakers with Washington, Tampa Bay and St. Louis, who would all be in line for the postseason before Seattle in a log jam of seven teams at 4-5.

So, what's been the major problem for Seattle? When you first look at the stats, it's not that easy to tell. Sure, many will blame the re-modeled offensive line for not protecting quarterback Russell Wilson, but Seattle's sack percentage (the percentage of pass attempts that end with the quarterback getting sacked) sits at 8%, or, right about where it usually is. In fact, Seattle allowed sacks on 8.4% of Wilson's drop backs during its championship season of 2013.

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): Halfway Done

Can Arizona wrangle Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to seize control of the NFC West?

  By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

At some point last Sunday, the NFL season officially hit the halfway mark. Every team has played at least eight games. Some have played nine.

The cream is starting to rise to the top, at least in the AFC. The Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos, based on their current records and the strength of their divisions, have all but wrapped up playoff berths, barring an epic, near-unprecedented collapse. (Football Outsiders lists all three as having a better than 90 percent chance of winning their divisions).

Indianapolis seems to remain the favorite in the South, if only by default, and a handful of other teams - New York, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Oakland - will be left to duke it out for two Wild Card spots. You could try to talk yourself into Baltimore, Houston, or Kansas City, but you'd be very stupid.

The NFC is murkier. The only team with a real stranglehold on their division is Carolina, but really only because Atlanta has stumbled of late, and their 5-0 start may have been a mirage. The East and the West are both totally up for grabs, and the NFC North suddenly finds itself with a tie atop the division between Green Bay and Minnesota. The Packers are still the favorites (and a Week 17 head-to-head at Lambeau Field with the Vikings tilts the scales even more), but Minnesota's easy schedule should continue to benefit them.

Don't expect much separation to occur this weekend - only two games feature teams competing for (potentially) the same playoff spot, and one of them occurred Thursday night. As for the other one, it's one of our games of the week.

Game(s) of The Week

New England at New York Giants (4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

New England is obviously the class of the AFC East, and probably the favorite to take the conference crown. The Giants are certainly in the mix in the NFC East, and have proven time and again that, once in the playoffs, they're capable of making inexplicable runs to the Lombardi trophy. These aren't your slightly-older-brother's Giants' teams - there isn't much of a pass rush, and they don't throw deep. Their success stems from short timing routes to quick, shifty receivers.

Kind of like, you know, the Patriots.

NFL Week 5 Primer (With Picks): Trends Emerge

Kam Chancellor's return has put the "boom" back in Seattle's secondary, but how will they deal with a red-hot Cincinnati offense?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've seen four weeks of football, which means we have five data points - the four games we've seen from (most) teams, plus our preseason expectations. Week Four presented a lot of compelling evidence. The three unbeaten teams we were still on the fence about - Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati - all put a big whoopin' on their opponents. All three teams sport average scoring margins of +9 or better, which, through a quarter of the season, seems like we can say is not a coincidence.

At the very least, we can separate the league into "have"s and "have-not"s, with very few exceptions (for example, I still have no flippin' idea what to make of Minnesota and St. Louis). We know which teams are good and which teams are bad, the only questions that remain are with regards to degrees.

Joe and Daphne's Preview: Our Playoff and Award Winner Picks

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

Daphne and I have already previewed each division in the NFL individually. So, if you'd like to look back at those to see your favorite team, check them out below, but now we're moving ahead with the big questions.

So, without further ado, here are the playoff and Award Winner picks from Joe and his less than six-month old pup.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The NFC West

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

We took an extra long weekend, but Daphne and I are back to preview the NFC West, home of reigning conference champion Seattle, (mostly) involuntarily revamped San Francisco, and a pair of nasty defenses in St. Louis and Arizona.

Other than the Seahawks, major questions linger for each of these teams, and even Seattle comes into 2015 with something to prove after coming up one play short of back-to-back titles in last February's Super Bowl.

Will the Seahawks make it back to Super Sunday, or can somebody like Arizona or St. Louis possibly snatch the division from them? Daphne and I investigate.

The "Patriot Way" and NFL Free Agency, So Far

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There is little doubt that the Patriots, led by Bill Belichick, have been the smartest team in football the last decade-and-a-half, both on the field, and in personnel decisions.

This commitment to smart play, and an unwavering support of Belichick's "process" in both the NFL Draft and free agency have come to be known as the "Patriot Way," not to be confused with the fictional "Patriot Way" that New England fans pretend exists, wherein New England does everything "the right way," doesn't cheat, and only employs choir boys (the recent suspicious case of LeGarrette Blount, SpyGate and Aaron Hernandez seem to prove all of those sentiments false).

Still, the "Patriot Way" is the league's most successful and revered process. In fact, Belichick's ability to field winning teams year-in and year-out make him not only the best coach in the NFL, but arguably the best General Manager in major American sports.

Bob Lobel: The Greatest Win in New England Sports History?

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Just moments after that ill-advised Seattle pass on the goal line was intercepted, I began contemplating both arguments in many peoples' heads.

You know, the arguments we all had right after that play. For us, are Brady and Belichick the best ever, and for Seattle, was that the worst play call ever?

Let me clarify a couple things: First, now you know why you should be happy that Pete Carroll isn't coaching here anymore. Number two, it will never get any worse for Seattle.

Also, consider this; Just two weeks ago, Seattle put one of those "can't get any worse than this" losses on Green Bay.

Really? Really!

New England's Improbable Super Bowl Win Cements Brady & Belichick's Legacies

By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty)

What a finish to the 2014 NFL season!

The Patriots thought they played the game of the year when they erased two 14-point deficits against the Ravens to reach the AFC Championship Game. Then Seattle outdid them with an improbable comeback against the Packers to book a place in the Super Bowl. But when the Patriots and Seahawks met on Sunday, they managed to produce an even more memorable game that will go down as one of the greatest Super Bowls ever played.

Super Bowl XLIX Preview Extravaganza

The battle for the middle of the field, between Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor, will go a long way toward determining the winner of Super Bowl XLIX.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe), with cameos from Bob Lobel (@boblobel) and Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

Last season, we blew out Super Bowl week with everything you needed to know about the Big Game in a different post each day. This year, however, a hellacious snowstorm dumped over two feet of snow in the greater Boston area, which meant Jeremy spent most of the week trapped under a pile of snow, and writing fell by the wayside to give way to playing cards and drinking whiskey with fellow snowed-in housemates, while Joe scrambled to finalize the purchase of a new home. It was really a banner week all around. So in lieu of dragging everything out, we've opted to just throw everything you need to know into one convenient (albeit obnoxiously long) post.

Our postseason gambling records continue to impress. Jeremy is 6-4 against the spread and a stellar 9-1 straight up while Joe is 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 straight up. With only one game left, Jeremy has clinched the straight-up title, and Joe has guaranteed himself at least a share of the ATS title. 

By The Numbers

Line: Patriots by 1

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

New England:
Record: 12-4 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 29.2 (4th) - 19.6 (8th)
Avergae Scoring Margin: +9.7 (1st) - 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +13.6% Offense (6th); -3.4% Defense (11th); +5.5% Special Teams (5th); +22.4% Total (4th)

Patriots and Seahawks Eye History in Super Bowl XLIX

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Fellow editor Jeremy Conlin and I will get to our in-depth preview of Sunday's big game a little later, but right now let's just focus on the fact that there is a ton of history to be made, by both teams, in Super Bowl XLIX.

The Patriots come in looking to win their fourth Super Bowl on a record-tying eighth appearance, and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick both have the chance to join very rare company in the respective fields of quarterbacking and coaching.

Meanwhile, Seattle's defense and young quarterback have the chance to carve out a unique place in pro football lore for themselves as well.

Here's what is on the line for both teams this Super Sunday, as well as a few nuggets that make the match up historic in itself.

New England Patriots

The Patriots will tie Pittsburgh and Dallas for the most Super Bowl appearances all time Sunday with eight. The Patriots can't catch the Steelers (6-2) or Cowboys (5-3) on the Super Bowl wins list, but a loss would give New England it's fifth Super Bowl defeat, tying them with the Denver Broncos for that backhanded-compliment of a record. New England is currently tied with Buffalo and Minnesota for second place on the all-time Super Bowl loss list with four.

Since Robert Kraft bought the Patriots in 1994, no team has been more successful. The Pats have appeared in seven Super Bowls since then (counting Sunday), winning three. The closest franchises in Super Bowl appearances since that time? Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the New York Giants and Denver are all tied with three appearances, and those same teams are all lagging behind in wins with two.

Bob Lobel: Belichick vs Carroll and the Super Bowl Media Circus

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

There have been hundreds of press conferences over the years.

From the Olympics in Sarajevo, to Lake Placid and being in the locker room a week before they became the Miracle on Ice. 

True. 

From the America's Cup in Newport, RI with the Australians, to the Curtis Strange US open and then the Ryder Cup at the Country Club in Brookline where Justin Leonard, wearing one of those horrible shirts/uniforms, rammed in a putt for the cup on 17.   

That only scratches the surface of places and memories… Only the surface! 

Lobel's Question of the Week: Should the Seahawks Just Shut Up?

Every week, legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel wants to hear your opinion on something that caught his eye over the weekend.

While much of the lead up to Super Bowl XLIX has featured our Patriots and accusations of deflated footballs, their opponents from Seattle have been able to put their 2 cents in as well.

It started with Seahawk cornerback Jeremy Lane discussing Rob Gronkowski and saying "I actually don’t think he’s that good.”

What?

Bob Lobel: A Loss of Olympic Proportions

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

There was a ridiculous question floating out there yesterday, suggesting it would be possible to find a scenario to actually fire Bill Belichick! 

Hey, it's possible. Anyone could get the axe. In this case the deed would have to be extremely egregious. It seems it would have to be a vile act of lawlessness outside the purview of football. Yes, he is hated by everyone everywhere, except here.  

Jealousy and envy have a long reach. This question about BB getting a pink slip is ridiculous, but for one exception, in my opinion:  He would have had to be coaching the Green Bay Packers Sunday. 

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Ranking the NFL's Four Remaining Quarterbacks

By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

The best day of the NFL season is coming up this Sunday. The Green Bay Packers will visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game at 3:05. Then at 6:40, the Indianapolis Colts will face off against the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship.

Rodgers vs. Wilson. Brady vs. Luck. Get ready.

In Bob Lobel’s last article, he asked, “Which of the four quarterbacks left would you take?” It is no coincidence that each remaining team has a superstar quarterback, but very few championship weekends have featured matchups quite like this. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson might just be the four most exciting quarterbacks in the league.

For the past seven seasons, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But Manning and Brees have finally begun to show their age (38 and 36, respectively). Brees and the Saints had as easy a road to the playoffs as they could ask for, but they couldn’t beat out the 7-8-1 Panthers for a division title. Peyton Manning failed to lead a star-studded Broncos team to a playoff win, and his future in Denver is now uncertain. Those disappointing performances have left two spaces open on football’s Mount Rushmore.

The Leading Challengers

NFC Divisional Weekend Preview

Can Tony Romo score a legacy-altering win at Green Bay this weekend? One of our editors thinks so.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We began our Divisional Round preview with the AFC games earlier today, and now we move on to a pair of highly intriguing contests in the National Football Conference. Led by a match up of Blue Chip franchises (and completely different, but equally important fan bases), the Packers hosting the Cowboys is sure to be a ratings bonanza.

Then, the suddenly hot Panthers travel to face reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle. Let's get right into breaking each game down.

Carolina at Seattle (8:15 p.m. Saturday, FOX)

The Line: Seahawks by 11

By The Numbers:

Carolina:
Record: 7-8-1 (8-8 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 21.2 (19th) - 23.4 (21st)
Average Scoring Margin: -2.2 (23rd) - 7.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -5.0% Offense (20th); -1.6% Defense (15th); -5.5% Special Teams (30th); -8.9% Total (25th)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)