Showing posts with label NFC Championship Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFC Championship Game. Show all posts

Friday, January 20, 2017

NFL Conference Championships Primer (With Picks): The Road To Houston


Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler covering All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown should be one of Sunday's best matchups.
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We have about seven hours of football left until we know which two teams will head to Houston and battle it out for Super Bowl 51. Based on how the regular season went, we got the two teams you probably expected to see out of the AFC (you could make a case for Oakland, I guess, but Derek Carr's injury took care of that), and while we didn't get the teams you would expect from the NFC, we did get the No. 2 seed in the conference and the team that beat the No. 1 seed, so you can't say the teams are undeserving.

Most fittingly, though, is the quarterbacks who we have left. We have the two who finished as the best quarterbacks in the league by virtually any metric under the sun (Ryan and Brady), a quarterback on a nine-game winning streak with a QB rating in the ballpark of 120 (Rodgers), and a quarterback with two Super Bowl rings who has all the potential in the world to throw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns on any given Sunday (Roethlisberger).

And think of the potential Super Bowl matchups. Patriots-Packers. Patriots-Falcons. Falcons-Steelers. Packers-Steelers. Not one potential dud. That wouldn't have been the case if the Chiefs or Giants had advanced this far. Let's all consider ourselves lucky.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Your NFC Championship Primer

Calais Campbell and the stingy Cardinals defense will do everything in its power to corral NFL MVP-favorite Cam Newton.
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Our AFC Championship Preview was published earlier today, so there's no need for an introduction here. Let's kick it off.

Arizona at Carolina (6:40 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Opening Line: Panthers by 3
Current Line: Panthers by 3

By The Numbers:

Arizona: 
Record: 13-3 Overall, 7-1 Away; 9-7 Against the Spread; 6-2 Away
Average Score: 30.6 (2nd) - 19.6 (7th)
Average Scoring Margin: +11.0 (2nd); 11.9 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.8% Offense (4th); -15.6% Defense (3rd); -4.0% Special Teams (29th); +27.4% Overall (3rd)

Carolina:
Record: 15-1 Overall; 8-0 Home; 11-5 Against The Spread; 6-2 Home
Average Score: 31.2 (1st) - 19.2 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +12.0 (1st); 12.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.9% Offense (8th); -18.4% Defense (2nd); -2.4% Special Teams (23rd); +25.9% Overall (4th)

Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Ranking the NFL's Four Remaining Quarterbacks


By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

The best day of the NFL season is coming up this Sunday. The Green Bay Packers will visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game at 3:05. Then at 6:40, the Indianapolis Colts will face off against the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship.

Rodgers vs. Wilson. Brady vs. Luck. Get ready.

In Bob Lobel’s last article, he asked, “Which of the four quarterbacks left would you take?” It is no coincidence that each remaining team has a superstar quarterback, but very few championship weekends have featured matchups quite like this. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson might just be the four most exciting quarterbacks in the league.

For the past seven seasons, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But Manning and Brees have finally begun to show their age (38 and 36, respectively). Brees and the Saints had as easy a road to the playoffs as they could ask for, but they couldn’t beat out the 7-8-1 Panthers for a division title. Peyton Manning failed to lead a star-studded Broncos team to a playoff win, and his future in Denver is now uncertain. Those disappointing performances have left two spaces open on football’s Mount Rushmore.

The Leading Challengers

Monday, January 20, 2014

Bob Lobel: Belichick Grasping for Straws With His Welker Allegation

 By Bob Lobel  @boblobel

There is no doubt that Mr. Bill is all knowing when it comes to what he does. 

I can’t imagine ever challenging him on anything about football. To me, the stupid Spygate thing was akin to jaywalking. Never was, and never will be a big deal. Yesterday was the first time I ever really saw him whiff on anything football related. 

Maybe Cleveland Browns fans will throw gasoline on this fire, but when he said the Welker hit on Talib was one of the worst he has ever seen, I say “whoa there, Mr. Bill.” 

Championship Sunday Roundup: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Richard Sherman is pretty good, and he isn't afraid to tell you.
 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During football season, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, bad, and ugly from the football weekend that was. Here is your championship Sunday roundup.

The Good

Richard Sherman

Ok, I know many will claim that Richard Sherman was a non-factor until his game saving tip that resulted in an interception by teammate Malcolm Smith with 22 seconds to play.

Even if you believe that's true (it's not), Sherman had the game you want to see from a corner. No real negative plays against him, and a game-altering play in his favor when it mattered most. Crabtree made four catches for 52 yards, but none of those catches came against Sherman. Rather, all of Crabtree's grabs came when he was either being covered by Byron Maxwell, or when the Seahawks went cover 3 and he found himself downfield against the shorter Earl Thomas.

He did draw a defensive holding call against Sherman early in the second quarter, however, to keep a drive going on third and nine, leading to a 49er touchdown. Still, that's the only positive play a receiver created against Sherman all day, as the 49ers threw at him only six times, resulting in the aforementioned pass defense and penalty, along with four incompletions.

That's right, San Francisco threw his way six times, and only got five yards out of it. I don't know about you but I'd take that kind of play from my top corner any day.

Friday, January 17, 2014

NFC Championship Game Preview: 49ers-Seahawks, Round III

Expect a lot of running and a lot of physicality when Seattle hosts San Francisco Sunday night.
 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and featuring David Lombardi (@DavidMLombardi)

[For our preview of the AFC Championship Game, click this conveniently-place link

Sunday marks the fifth meaningful game between the 49ers and Seahawks in the last two seasons, no other duo in the league can match that figure. The previous four games have followed a pattern - the 49ers win close games at home (winning by seven last year, by just two this season), while the Seahawks blow the doors off a seemingly overmatched San Francisco team when the location moves north (they won 42-13 in Seattle last year, 29-3 this season).

Is this sample size large enough to draw the conclusion that Seattle will win by three touchdowns and that will be that? No. But is it a large enough sample size to draw the conclusion that Seattle is (probably) the better team and playing at home plays to their (assumed) superiority? It just might be.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

NFC Championship Primer: The Best Defenses in NFL History

How do the Seahawks and their dominant secondary rank among the NFL's all time best defenses?
By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

With Sunday's NFC Championship being billed as a heavyweight bout between two of the league's best defenses, I grew curious: How do these two great defenses stack up against the best in league history?

Well, it turns out at least one of them does very favorably.

Friday, January 20, 2012

NFC Championship Pre-Game Commentary: Harbaugh Plays to Win the Game

Without guts, there comes no glory.

 The San Francisco 49ers enjoyed a lot of both Saturday in their heartrending 36-32 playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints. Tight end Vernon Davis hauled in 14-yard touchdown pass from Alex Smith with nine seconds remaining. Pandemonium overtook Bay Area living rooms and bars. Aging Candlestick Park shook during one of the most glorious moments it’s seen in over half a century, and that’s saying something, considering the building has housed the dramatics of Montana, Clark, Young, Rice, and Owens.

Yet, “The Grab,” “The Catch III,” or “The Throw and Catch” - whatever one deems to be the moment’s most appropriate moniker - would have never happened had coach Jim Harbaugh stuck with the traditional, conservative, established norm of football play-calling.

Trailing 32-29, San Francisco marched down the length of the field as time dwindled. As the 49ers entered the New Orleans red zone with 14 seconds left, conventional football wisdom would have suggested San Francisco turn to David Akers, their record-setting kicker who had just had the most productive season in NFL history. Avoid the risks, take the certain tie, move onto overtime, and trust your defense, some would say.

Harbaugh, though, is anything but a man of conventional wisdom. In fact, he has always been on the cutting edge of in-game decisions that buck the traditional way of doing things. In just his fourth game in charge of Stanford in 2007, Harbaugh committed the ultimate “no-no” by those traditional standards: he took points off the scoreboard by accepting a penalty on his team’s successful field goal attempt just to keep his offense on the field and further wear down the opposing defense. The bold decision was the first of many in the young coach’s career, and it was a vital reason that Stanford shocked then-No. 2 USC in the Coliseum.

So, it came as no surprise that Harbaugh chose not to settle for the tying field goal last Saturday, and opted instead for an aggressive seam pass from Smith to Davis in the end zone. This is a coach who - for better or for worse - has made his money by living vicariously through his quarterbacks on the field in tense situations (he’s a former QB himself). It cost Harbaugh badly when he neglected dominating running back Toby Gerhart at the end of the 2009 Big Game, and instead let a freshman Andrew Luck throw a game-ending interception to Cal safety Mike Mohammed.

Afterwards, Harbaugh himself admitted that was a bad decision. As was evident against the Saints, though, he’ll never apologize or think twice about giving his quarterback a chance to be the hero when his alternative is the kicker. Given Smith’s tortured seven-year history at the helm of the 49ers offense, though, entrusting him to throw was a decision that most coaches probably wouldn’t have been comfortable with. What if Smith was sacked? A ferocious Saints pass rush had already caused him to fumble twice.

What if he threw an interception? If his dart to Davis was only slightly off-target, that was certainly a danger, too.

Whatever the reason - maybe it’s because he isn’t far removed from his brash playing days - Harbaugh does not let such fears suffocate his decisions. He made his share of mistakes at Stanford, but unlike so many of his contemporaries, he doesn’t coach afraid. He doesn’t settle for field goals that will force overtime when he can score a touchdown to settle matters in regulation. His teams thrive off that aggressive approach.

Saturday’s final result: San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32 - thanks to that hard-hitting, “play to win” mentality. Unfortunately, that’s a mindset that doesn’t seem to be prevalent yet in the sport.

Even Harbaugh’s successor at Stanford, David Shaw, settled for a medium-distance field goal in the Fiesta Bowl less than two weeks earlier instead of allowing his offense to continue driving down the field, fearing that his red-hot quarterback Andrew Luck (not a freshman anymore, and on a 16-17 roll of completions) could possibly cough up the game if he was allowed to stay on the field. As it turns out, that supposedly “safe” decision - one that followed conventional football wisdom - blew up in Shaw’s face. Stanford missed two field goals with the game on the line and lost in heartbreaking fashion.

That’s a mistake that Harbaugh was not going to duplicate in his San Francisco opportunity. Even with a relatively worse quarterback and offensive arsenal than Stanford, he believed in his 49er offensive guns, and allowed his quarterback to do what Andrew Luck was forbidden from doing in Phoenix: pull the trigger in crunch time. Decisions are best evaluated by their results: the 49ers won; Stanford lost. Fortune favors the bold, and it certainly has smiled on Harbaugh, a leader who has even ruffled feathers with his exuberance and audacity. He is challenging the conservative play-calling status quo. It may be seen as a threat to some, but to the San Francisco 49ers and their fans, it looks like a return to NFC Championship Game glory.