Your NFC Wild Card Primer

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins is pumped to be playing at home, where his team is 6-2 and he's posted a 117 passer rating this season. On the road Washington is just 3-5, with Cousins' passer rating dipping all the way to 87.7.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We kicked off our Wild Card Weekend preview yesterday with our AFC Primer. Both of us like the road teams on that side of the bracket. Here comes the NFC Primer, where again, both road teams are the nominal favorites.

All four road teams can't end up winning, can they?

A reminder, in case you missed the AFC Preview - the "DVOA" line in the "By The Numbers" section is the Football Outsiders' metric "Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average." It is designed to measure each team on a per-play basis, adjusted, obviously, for the opponent, but also for down and distance. For example, a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 against Seattle is a more valuable and/or meaningful play than a 11-yard gain on 4th-and-12 against New Orleans. DVOA accounts for those things. And positive numbers represent more yards/points, so a defense is better when it is further negative.

Let's dive right in. 

Inside the NFL Film Room: What is Wrong With Seattle?

After a Sunday night loss to Arizona, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks find themselves in uncharted waters: Fighting for their playoff lives.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

After back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, including a championship in 2013, Seattle now finds itself against the ropes in both the NFC West and conference at large.

With their loss to division rival Arizona Sunday, the Seahawks now sit at 4-5, a full three games behind the Cardinals (who own the tie-breaker over Seattle, for now) with just seven games to play. Perhaps even more shocking is that, if the season ended today, Seattle would miss the postseason. Seriously, the Seahawks are two games behind current Wild Card leaders Green Bay and Atlanta (both 6-3), and are currently losing conference tie-breakers with Washington, Tampa Bay and St. Louis, who would all be in line for the postseason before Seattle in a log jam of seven teams at 4-5.

So, what's been the major problem for Seattle? When you first look at the stats, it's not that easy to tell. Sure, many will blame the re-modeled offensive line for not protecting quarterback Russell Wilson, but Seattle's sack percentage (the percentage of pass attempts that end with the quarterback getting sacked) sits at 8%, or, right about where it usually is. In fact, Seattle allowed sacks on 8.4% of Wilson's drop backs during its championship season of 2013.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The NFC West

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

We took an extra long weekend, but Daphne and I are back to preview the NFC West, home of reigning conference champion Seattle, (mostly) involuntarily revamped San Francisco, and a pair of nasty defenses in St. Louis and Arizona.

Other than the Seahawks, major questions linger for each of these teams, and even Seattle comes into 2015 with something to prove after coming up one play short of back-to-back titles in last February's Super Bowl.

Will the Seahawks make it back to Super Sunday, or can somebody like Arizona or St. Louis possibly snatch the division from them? Daphne and I investigate.

Bob Lobel: The Greatest Win in New England Sports History?

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

Just moments after that ill-advised Seattle pass on the goal line was intercepted, I began contemplating both arguments in many peoples' heads.

You know, the arguments we all had right after that play. For us, are Brady and Belichick the best ever, and for Seattle, was that the worst play call ever?

Let me clarify a couple things: First, now you know why you should be happy that Pete Carroll isn't coaching here anymore. Number two, it will never get any worse for Seattle.

Also, consider this; Just two weeks ago, Seattle put one of those "can't get any worse than this" losses on Green Bay.

Really? Really!

New England's Improbable Super Bowl Win Cements Brady & Belichick's Legacies

By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty)

What a finish to the 2014 NFL season!

The Patriots thought they played the game of the year when they erased two 14-point deficits against the Ravens to reach the AFC Championship Game. Then Seattle outdid them with an improbable comeback against the Packers to book a place in the Super Bowl. But when the Patriots and Seahawks met on Sunday, they managed to produce an even more memorable game that will go down as one of the greatest Super Bowls ever played.

Super Bowl XLIX Preview Extravaganza

The battle for the middle of the field, between Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor, will go a long way toward determining the winner of Super Bowl XLIX.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe), with cameos from Bob Lobel (@boblobel) and Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

Last season, we blew out Super Bowl week with everything you needed to know about the Big Game in a different post each day. This year, however, a hellacious snowstorm dumped over two feet of snow in the greater Boston area, which meant Jeremy spent most of the week trapped under a pile of snow, and writing fell by the wayside to give way to playing cards and drinking whiskey with fellow snowed-in housemates, while Joe scrambled to finalize the purchase of a new home. It was really a banner week all around. So in lieu of dragging everything out, we've opted to just throw everything you need to know into one convenient (albeit obnoxiously long) post.

Our postseason gambling records continue to impress. Jeremy is 6-4 against the spread and a stellar 9-1 straight up while Joe is 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 straight up. With only one game left, Jeremy has clinched the straight-up title, and Joe has guaranteed himself at least a share of the ATS title. 

By The Numbers

Line: Patriots by 1

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

New England:
Record: 12-4 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 29.2 (4th) - 19.6 (8th)
Avergae Scoring Margin: +9.7 (1st) - 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +13.6% Offense (6th); -3.4% Defense (11th); +5.5% Special Teams (5th); +22.4% Total (4th)

Patriots and Seahawks Eye History in Super Bowl XLIX

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Fellow editor Jeremy Conlin and I will get to our in-depth preview of Sunday's big game a little later, but right now let's just focus on the fact that there is a ton of history to be made, by both teams, in Super Bowl XLIX.

The Patriots come in looking to win their fourth Super Bowl on a record-tying eighth appearance, and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick both have the chance to join very rare company in the respective fields of quarterbacking and coaching.

Meanwhile, Seattle's defense and young quarterback have the chance to carve out a unique place in pro football lore for themselves as well.

Here's what is on the line for both teams this Super Sunday, as well as a few nuggets that make the match up historic in itself.

New England Patriots

The Patriots will tie Pittsburgh and Dallas for the most Super Bowl appearances all time Sunday with eight. The Patriots can't catch the Steelers (6-2) or Cowboys (5-3) on the Super Bowl wins list, but a loss would give New England it's fifth Super Bowl defeat, tying them with the Denver Broncos for that backhanded-compliment of a record. New England is currently tied with Buffalo and Minnesota for second place on the all-time Super Bowl loss list with four.

Since Robert Kraft bought the Patriots in 1994, no team has been more successful. The Pats have appeared in seven Super Bowls since then (counting Sunday), winning three. The closest franchises in Super Bowl appearances since that time? Green Bay, Pittsburgh, the New York Giants and Denver are all tied with three appearances, and those same teams are all lagging behind in wins with two.

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Ranking the NFL's Four Remaining Quarterbacks

By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

The best day of the NFL season is coming up this Sunday. The Green Bay Packers will visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game at 3:05. Then at 6:40, the Indianapolis Colts will face off against the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship.

Rodgers vs. Wilson. Brady vs. Luck. Get ready.

In Bob Lobel’s last article, he asked, “Which of the four quarterbacks left would you take?” It is no coincidence that each remaining team has a superstar quarterback, but very few championship weekends have featured matchups quite like this. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson might just be the four most exciting quarterbacks in the league.

For the past seven seasons, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But Manning and Brees have finally begun to show their age (38 and 36, respectively). Brees and the Saints had as easy a road to the playoffs as they could ask for, but they couldn’t beat out the 7-8-1 Panthers for a division title. Peyton Manning failed to lead a star-studded Broncos team to a playoff win, and his future in Denver is now uncertain. Those disappointing performances have left two spaces open on football’s Mount Rushmore.

The Leading Challengers

Did Madison Bumgarner Deserve SI's 2014 Sportsman of the Year Award?

 By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

Since 1954, Sports Illustrated has presented the “Sportsman of the Year” award to “the athlete or team whose performance that year most embodies the spirit of sportsmanship and achievement.”

Earlier this week, Sports Illustrated chose Madison Bumgarner as 2014’s winner. Bumgarner won the honor because of his historic playoff run, in which he led the San Francisco Giants to a championship and won the World Series MVP award.

However, Bumgarner was not among the 26 players who received votes for the National League MVP award. He did not finish in the Top-10 in the National League in ERA or Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His year as a whole was far from perfect, leaving the door open for another athlete to take this award. Here are the other eight nominees Sports Illustrated named for its fan poll.

Last Minute Fantasy Start'ems and Sit'ems: Week 10

Jeremy says to sit Russell Wilson this week, so you should definitely start him.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Joe is off this week, so I'm your fantasy czar. You'd be wise to hear my advice and then go in the exact opposite direction. In one of my leagues, I'm currently first place in total points scored but sit at 1-8. Luck has not been a lady. Luck has been a cold-hearted bitch.

Start'em

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia

Matchup: vs. Carolina, Monday Night

Look, I'm not advocating for Sanchez to be your long-term solution or the franchise quarterback of your favorite real, not fantasy football team. But if you're strapped for options at quarterback (and you might be with guys like Luck, Rivers, and Brady on bye weeks and guys like Romo and Foles with injuries), Sanchez is your best bet for a quick plug average performance. It's tough to screw up too bad in Philadelphia's offense, and they're running into Carolina, who hasn't really been able to stop anyone through the air.

NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): Desperation Creeping In

After a surprising loss in St. Louis dropped the Seahawks to 3-3, is it time to panic in Seattle?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

It's amazing how NFL teams can, to quote our man Bob Lobel, "push the panic button" less than halfway through the year.

Several teams have to be doing just that, at least internally this week, as the defending champion Seahawks are looking far from super after losing to lifeless St. Louis, and the Bengals haven't won a game in three weeks. The NFC West is suddenly, get this, Arizona's to lose. Yeah, the same Arizona that started Drew Stanton earlier this year.

Let's just say Seattle and San Francisco are both feeling the heat, and everybody in the NFC South is looking for a shot in the arm. Luckily, they all, uh, play in the NFC South, which pretty much stinks from top to bottom.

Let's check back in on how underdogs are doing against the spread (Spoiler: not as well as before), and look at our games of the week and picks.

-Joe

Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bets

Spin the wheel and pick your favorite Super Bowl prop bets.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Yesterday, we kicked off our Super Bowl Gambling preview with odds and picks for the player to score the first touchdown. I have more uncertainty surrounding those picks than I ever have before, and I fully expect to lose every penny I (would have) put down (if gambling were legal). The rest of the props, I feel a lot better about. On [insert semi-shady offshore gambling website here].com, there are pages and pages of different prop bets, way too many to list here. In all, there are over 450 different elements of the game you can bet on, up to and including whether or not Broncos' third-string Tight End Virgil Green will receive a pass. So instead of running through all of them (which would take days to write, hours to read, and may even exceed the character limit for a single post), let's only focus on the ones that are worth betting on.

Who Will Score First In The Super Bowl?

Will Marshawn Lynch be the first to score a Touchdown on Sunday?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

I've nailed the "Who Will Score The First Touchdown?" Super Bowl prop bet in each of the last five Super Bowls, and I can even tell you who the winning players were - Anquan Boldin, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, and The Field (via Gary Russell).

My usual tactic is to identify two players on each team who seem likely to be involved early in the game, but this year that's a far too random proposition to be reliable. Denver has five players who are seemingly always on the field and always a threat - Knowshon Moreno, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker. All five of those players scored at least ten touchdowns in the regular season, and nobody else on the team had more than four. Meanwhile, Seattle has one clear pick - Marshawn Lynch - who scored nine more touchdowns from scrimmage (14) than any other player on the team (five - for Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Zach Miller); after that, there's nobody on the team that has shown a penchant for scoring touchdowns regularly.

Championship Sunday Roundup: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Richard Sherman is pretty good, and he isn't afraid to tell you.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During football season, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, bad, and ugly from the football weekend that was. Here is your championship Sunday roundup.

The Good

Richard Sherman

Ok, I know many will claim that Richard Sherman was a non-factor until his game saving tip that resulted in an interception by teammate Malcolm Smith with 22 seconds to play.

Even if you believe that's true (it's not), Sherman had the game you want to see from a corner. No real negative plays against him, and a game-altering play in his favor when it mattered most. Crabtree made four catches for 52 yards, but none of those catches came against Sherman. Rather, all of Crabtree's grabs came when he was either being covered by Byron Maxwell, or when the Seahawks went cover 3 and he found himself downfield against the shorter Earl Thomas.

He did draw a defensive holding call against Sherman early in the second quarter, however, to keep a drive going on third and nine, leading to a 49er touchdown. Still, that's the only positive play a receiver created against Sherman all day, as the 49ers threw at him only six times, resulting in the aforementioned pass defense and penalty, along with four incompletions.

That's right, San Francisco threw his way six times, and only got five yards out of it. I don't know about you but I'd take that kind of play from my top corner any day.

NFC Championship Game Preview: 49ers-Seahawks, Round III

Expect a lot of running and a lot of physicality when Seattle hosts San Francisco Sunday night.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and featuring David Lombardi (@DavidMLombardi)

[For our preview of the AFC Championship Game, click this conveniently-place link] 

Sunday marks the fifth meaningful game between the 49ers and Seahawks in the last two seasons, no other duo in the league can match that figure. The previous four games have followed a pattern - the 49ers win close games at home (winning by seven last year, by just two this season), while the Seahawks blow the doors off a seemingly overmatched San Francisco team when the location moves north (they won 42-13 in Seattle last year, 29-3 this season).

Is this sample size large enough to draw the conclusion that Seattle will win by three touchdowns and that will be that? No. But is it a large enough sample size to draw the conclusion that Seattle is (probably) the better team and playing at home plays to their (assumed) superiority? It just might be.

Weekend Football Roundup: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Justin Tucker nailed two fourth-quarter field goals in last year's Super Bowl, and now he's following it up with one of the best seasons a kicker has ever had. 

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

Every week, editor's Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, the bad and the ugly from the pro and college football weekend that was.

The Good

Russell Wilson

What regression? Rumors of Russell Wilson becoming simply an "average" or "game managing" quarterback were largely exaggerated. True, Wilson isn't putting up the huge numbers of Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, but the diminutive signal caller has done everything his team has needed to win. He just passed Ben Roethlisberger to capture the record for wins in a quarterback's first two seasons (23), and he now has 50 touchdowns for his young career.

Long And Suite Preview: The NFC West

Pete Carroll (left) and Jim Harbaugh (right) already have the most intense coaching rivalry in football, dating back to their days in the Pac 10 (now 12). The stakes are even higher this year, as Carroll's Seahawks and Harbaugh's 49ers might just be the two best teams in the NFL.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The transformation that this division has undergone over the last three years is pretty incredible. In 2010, A Week 17 matchup between the 7-8 Rams and 6-9 Seahawks actually decided which of the two teams would HOST a playoff game the following week. It was pretty embarrassing. Now there’s an argument to be made that it’s the best top-to-bottom division in the league. Even 2012’s last place finisher Arizona had wins over Seattle and New England.