NFL Conference Championships Primer (With Picks): The Road To Houston

Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler covering All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown should be one of Sunday's best matchups.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We have about seven hours of football left until we know which two teams will head to Houston and battle it out for Super Bowl 51. Based on how the regular season went, we got the two teams you probably expected to see out of the AFC (you could make a case for Oakland, I guess, but Derek Carr's injury took care of that), and while we didn't get the teams you would expect from the NFC, we did get the No. 2 seed in the conference and the team that beat the No. 1 seed, so you can't say the teams are undeserving.

Most fittingly, though, is the quarterbacks who we have left. We have the two who finished as the best quarterbacks in the league by virtually any metric under the sun (Ryan and Brady), a quarterback on a nine-game winning streak with a QB rating in the ballpark of 120 (Rodgers), and a quarterback with two Super Bowl rings who has all the potential in the world to throw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns on any given Sunday (Roethlisberger).

And think of the potential Super Bowl matchups. Patriots-Packers. Patriots-Falcons. Falcons-Steelers. Packers-Steelers. Not one potential dud. That wouldn't have been the case if the Chiefs or Giants had advanced this far. Let's all consider ourselves lucky.

Obligatory Peyton Manning-Tom Brady "Legacy" Blog

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Denver Broncos' relentless pass rush and play making secondary propelled them to Super Bowl 50 yesterday in an upset win over the visiting New England Patriots.

Or, as every other sports headline tells it: Peyton Manning defeated Tom Brady in the 17th meeting between two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

Manning will move onto his fourth Super Bowl, and will be the oldest quarterback to ever start on Super Sunday. Furthermore, he improved his record against Brady to 6-11, and has gone an even 5-5 against Tom Terrific in their last 10 meetings, including three postseason wins in a row against his nemesis.

Despite the overall record, Manning actually now leads the all-time postseason series 3-2, and hasn't lost to Brady in the playoffs since the 2004 season.

Who cares that this game was about far more than these two guys, as both defenses played lights out, let the quarterback debate rage on!

On one side, you have Tom Brady, with his four Super Bowl wins, two league MVPs and what I would call the greatest quarterback career résumé in NFL history.

On the other side, Peyton Manning and his league-record five MVPs, to go with numerous all-time passing records, now a winning postseason record against Brady and his one Super Bowl (hey, he might get another one).

Your AFC Championship Primer

Have you heard? Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are playing in this game!

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Eight down, three to go.

Jeremy extended his lead in Round 2. Both Jeremy and Joe picked all four winners correctly, but Jeremy had a Pittsburgh cover over Denver, while Joe did not. Jeremy stands 8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, leading Joe's 7-1 straight up, 3-5 against the spread (we both had Arizona winning and covering against Green Bay. They did win, but they didn't cover their seven-point spread).

Both conferences have played out exactly the same. All four road teams won in Round 1, and all four home teams won in Round 2, leaving us with the top two seeds in each conference squaring off. Where the conferences differ is the AFC matchup features the longest-tenured rivalry in pro football.

The Brady-Manning Opus is well-tread ground (Joe went into greater detail about them two years ago, and wrote a piece on the greatest quarterback seasons in NFL history in honor of that Brady-Manning AFC title game), so let's not waste any breath regurgitating it.

Suffice it to say, they are the two best quarterbacks of their generation, and when they face off against each other, the games are usually fairly entertaining. Both favorites this week are giving exactly three points - fundamentally, the purest gambling line that exists - but we'll start here with the aforementioned AFC contest.

New England at Denver (3:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Opening Line: Patriots by 3.5
Current Line: Patriots by 3

By The Numbers:

New England: 
Record: 12-4 Overall, 5-3 Away; 7-6-3 Against The Spread; 3-5 Away
Average Score: 29.1 (3rd) - 19.7 (10th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (3rd); 11.5 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.4% Offense (5th); -3.4% Defense (12th); +3.9% Special Teams (5th); +22.6% Overall (6th)

Denver: 
Record: 12-4 Overall; 6-2 Home; 8-6-2 Against The Spread; 3-5 Home
Average Score: 22.2 (19th) - 18.5 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.7 (10th); 9.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -8.8% Offense (25th); -25.8% Defense (1st); +0.7% Special Teams (14th); +17.7% Overall (8th) 

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Ranking the NFL's Four Remaining Quarterbacks

By Andy Dougherty (@AndyDougherty10)

The best day of the NFL season is coming up this Sunday. The Green Bay Packers will visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game at 3:05. Then at 6:40, the Indianapolis Colts will face off against the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship.

Rodgers vs. Wilson. Brady vs. Luck. Get ready.

In Bob Lobel’s last article, he asked, “Which of the four quarterbacks left would you take?” It is no coincidence that each remaining team has a superstar quarterback, but very few championship weekends have featured matchups quite like this. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson might just be the four most exciting quarterbacks in the league.

For the past seven seasons, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But Manning and Brees have finally begun to show their age (38 and 36, respectively). Brees and the Saints had as easy a road to the playoffs as they could ask for, but they couldn’t beat out the 7-8-1 Panthers for a division title. Peyton Manning failed to lead a star-studded Broncos team to a playoff win, and his future in Denver is now uncertain. Those disappointing performances have left two spaces open on football’s Mount Rushmore.

The Leading Challengers

Catching Up With Bob Lobel: Patriots Season in Review

Join host Joe Parello and legendary Boston sportscaster Bob Lobel as they recap the New England Patriots' 2013 season.

Given the circumstances, did the Pats overachieve this year, and how many playoff runs do Belichick and Brady have left? Plus, what moves do the Patriots need to make to take the next step back to Super Sunday?

All that, and more, in this week's edition of "Catching Up With Bob Lobel."

Find Additional Sports Podcasts with SuiteSports Live on BlogTalkRadio

Bob Lobel: Belichick Grasping for Straws With His Welker Allegation

 By Bob Lobel  @boblobel

There is no doubt that Mr. Bill is all knowing when it comes to what he does. 

I can’t imagine ever challenging him on anything about football. To me, the stupid Spygate thing was akin to jaywalking. Never was, and never will be a big deal. Yesterday was the first time I ever really saw him whiff on anything football related. 

Maybe Cleveland Browns fans will throw gasoline on this fire, but when he said the Welker hit on Talib was one of the worst he has ever seen, I say “whoa there, Mr. Bill.” 

Championship Sunday Roundup: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Richard Sherman is pretty good, and he isn't afraid to tell you.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During football season, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, bad, and ugly from the football weekend that was. Here is your championship Sunday roundup.

The Good

Richard Sherman

Ok, I know many will claim that Richard Sherman was a non-factor until his game saving tip that resulted in an interception by teammate Malcolm Smith with 22 seconds to play.

Even if you believe that's true (it's not), Sherman had the game you want to see from a corner. No real negative plays against him, and a game-altering play in his favor when it mattered most. Crabtree made four catches for 52 yards, but none of those catches came against Sherman. Rather, all of Crabtree's grabs came when he was either being covered by Byron Maxwell, or when the Seahawks went cover 3 and he found himself downfield against the shorter Earl Thomas.

He did draw a defensive holding call against Sherman early in the second quarter, however, to keep a drive going on third and nine, leading to a 49er touchdown. Still, that's the only positive play a receiver created against Sherman all day, as the 49ers threw at him only six times, resulting in the aforementioned pass defense and penalty, along with four incompletions.

That's right, San Francisco threw his way six times, and only got five yards out of it. I don't know about you but I'd take that kind of play from my top corner any day.

AFC Championship Game Preview: Manning-Brady XV

Brady and Manning aren't on the field at the same time during a game, contrary to popular belief.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and featuring Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

[For our preview of the NFC Championship Game, click this conveniently-place link]

Peyton Manning's team(s) and Tom Brady's team have squared off 14 times. I would say that Manning and Brady have squared off 14 times, but as they are both quarterbacks, they have never shared the field together. It's a rather strange type of narrative that exists among quarterback "rivalries." It's not like in basketball where one player can directly influence the performance of the other.

This is evident when you consult the win-loss record of the respective teams. Brady's Patriots have defeated Manning's Colts or Broncos in 10 of the 14 meetings. That's a winning percentage of over 71 percent for Brady's teams, slightly less than 29 percent for Manning's. Is Brady 42 percent better at playing quarterback than Peyton Manning is? Of course not. Yet we still talk about these things as if Brady was out on defense playing middle linebacker and that's why Manning didn't play up to par.

AFC Championship Primer: The Best Quarterback Seasons in NFL History

Tom Brady has gotten the better of Peyton Manning head to head, including a 24-point comeback earlier this year. The two will face off again Sunday in the AFC Championship Game, but which future Hall of Famer has had the best single season?

By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

Yesterday, in honor of the NFC Championship's impending defensive struggle, we brought you the 10 best defensive seasons in NFL history. That was great and all, but maybe you've heard about the somewhat relevant quarterback rivalry that will take center stage during the AFC Championship Game?

Oh yeah, it's that Peyton Manning guy trying to beat that Tom Brady guy. Those two dudes are pretty good.

In fact, both of them found their way onto today's list of the 10 greatest quarterback seasons ever. We all know that Brady has gotten the best of Manning, going 10-4 against his old rival, including 2-1 in the playoffs, but it is Manning that is in the midst of a historic 2013 season, setting the single season record for both touchdowns thrown and passing yards.

Where do Manning's current season and the best of Brady rank on our list? Find out below.

Bob Lobel: Expect the Patriots to be Super Again this Sunday

By Bob Lobel  @boblobel

Enough with the Bruno Mars stuff.  

Pepsi may have invested a fortune in the Super Bowl halftime show, but it’s time to let it go. We get it. 

The commercial where halftime is first invented due to Pepsi is cute, but please, enough Bruno.