NFL Conference Championships Primer (With Picks): The Road To Houston

Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler covering All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown should be one of Sunday's best matchups.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We have about seven hours of football left until we know which two teams will head to Houston and battle it out for Super Bowl 51. Based on how the regular season went, we got the two teams you probably expected to see out of the AFC (you could make a case for Oakland, I guess, but Derek Carr's injury took care of that), and while we didn't get the teams you would expect from the NFC, we did get the No. 2 seed in the conference and the team that beat the No. 1 seed, so you can't say the teams are undeserving.

Most fittingly, though, is the quarterbacks who we have left. We have the two who finished as the best quarterbacks in the league by virtually any metric under the sun (Ryan and Brady), a quarterback on a nine-game winning streak with a QB rating in the ballpark of 120 (Rodgers), and a quarterback with two Super Bowl rings who has all the potential in the world to throw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns on any given Sunday (Roethlisberger).

And think of the potential Super Bowl matchups. Patriots-Packers. Patriots-Falcons. Falcons-Steelers. Packers-Steelers. Not one potential dud. That wouldn't have been the case if the Chiefs or Giants had advanced this far. Let's all consider ourselves lucky.

NFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): Favorites

Vic Beasley going against Seattle's struggling offensive line could be the story of Saturday afternoon.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Both Jeremy and Joe had success picking NFC games last weekend, zeroing in pretty quickly on the idea that Seattle was just a terrible matchup for Detroit, and that New York just didn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Green Bay.

Both home teams held court in the Wild Card round, but it seems like the top two seeds in the NFC are relatively beatable (especially considering Seattle already beat Atlanta this season and the Cowboys have averaged just 316 yards of total offense over their last six games, and the team they're playing against has now won seven straight games, and most of them have been rather convincing). The last time the No. 1 overall seed failed to make the Super Bowl from the NFC was 2012, so it remains to be seen if Dallas can keep the streak alive.

That's still a month away though. For now, we deal with Round 2.

Your Saturday Divisional Round Primer

Tom Brady (12) and the Patriots will be welcoming back several players from injury this week, and perhaps none is more comforting to the star quarterback than big left tackle Sebastian Vollmer (76).

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In the Wild Card round, all four road teams prevailed for the first time since the playoff format changed back in 2002.

Also, unusually, there were two underdogs who covered but didn't win (Minnesota and Cincinnati). Normally in the postseason, underdogs don't pull backdoor covers out of a hat, they normally win outright. So perhaps it makes sense that Minnesota and Cincinnati came within inches of winning outright before losing in heartbreaking fashion.

The Wild Card round split up the conferences on separate days, but the divisional round features one AFC game and one NFC game on each day. As such, we will be previewing Saturday's games today and Sunday's games tomorrow, as to give you, dear reader, two full days to digest all of our useful information and gamble (where legal) accordingly.

Last week, Joe went 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread (only Kansas City saved him from embarrassment), Jeremy went 4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread. So, combined with regular season records (where Joe held a one-game lead), we are now tied. With that in mind, let's check out Saturday's games.

Your NFC Wild Card Primer

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins is pumped to be playing at home, where his team is 6-2 and he's posted a 117 passer rating this season. On the road Washington is just 3-5, with Cousins' passer rating dipping all the way to 87.7.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We kicked off our Wild Card Weekend preview yesterday with our AFC Primer. Both of us like the road teams on that side of the bracket. Here comes the NFC Primer, where again, both road teams are the nominal favorites.

All four road teams can't end up winning, can they?

A reminder, in case you missed the AFC Preview - the "DVOA" line in the "By The Numbers" section is the Football Outsiders' metric "Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average." It is designed to measure each team on a per-play basis, adjusted, obviously, for the opponent, but also for down and distance. For example, a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 against Seattle is a more valuable and/or meaningful play than a 11-yard gain on 4th-and-12 against New Orleans. DVOA accounts for those things. And positive numbers represent more yards/points, so a defense is better when it is further negative.

Let's dive right in. 

NFL Week 16 Primer (With Picks): Just the Picks, Yo

Tom Brady and the Patriots can lock up home field advantage this weekend against the rival Jets, but New York will be hungry for a win to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We just finished up Christmas and we've got New Year's coming up quickly, so I'm not going to bore you with much other than our picks.

Sure, the AFC is still a jumbled mess, and it's possible than an 11-5 Broncos or Jets team misses the postseason, but things should shake out nicely once the weekend is finished.

Let's not waste any more time, here are our games of the week and picks.

Game(s) of the Week

New England at New York Jets (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

The Patriots will be looking to lock up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, while the Jets are just hoping to keep pace in the crowded AFC Wild Card race. These games are, seemingly, always close (assuming there are no butt fumbles), and both teams have something to play for. Should be fun.

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Surprises

Tony Romo returns for this Cowboys this wee against Miami. As crazy as it sounds, he still has time to get 2-7 Dallas into the playoffs.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Through five weeks, there were six undefeated teams. Five weeks later, we're down to just two, and we came close to having just one - New England needed a last-second field goal to escape the Meadowlands.

I think we all expected New England to be the class of the AFC, but Carolina might be the league's most surprising team this year (other than maybe Indianapolis and Seattle, for different reasons). Both teams are home this week, and both are 7.5-point favorites. The other surprise team in the NFC is Minnesota, which currently sits at 7-2. But, perhaps even more shocking, the Vikings are 8-1 against the spread, including an incredible eight straight. Through about 45 minutes of half-assed research, I could not find another time in NFL history such a feat had taken place, so keep that in mind.

The two worst teams against the spread? Seattle and Baltimore. That's perhaps less surprising, considering what we've seen from the two teams this year, but there can't possibly a soul alive who would have said two of the last three Super Bowl champions would open the season a combined 3-13-2 in Vegas.

Let's get to the week.

Game(s) of The Week:

Dallas at Miami (1:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX)

Tony Romo returns!

Denver at Chicago (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

Brock Osweiler begins his Hall of Fame career!

NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): And the Race is On

Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis with the chance to break two of the NFL's most significant records against his old team.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) 

It's crazy to think, but the NFL season is now half-done, and playoff races are already in full swing. While a bunch of divisions are wrapped up, as we said last week, there are still some exciting divisional races, as well as Wild Card battles, going on in both conferences.

I won't waste any more of your time, here are our games of the week and picks against the spread.

Game(s) of The Week

Oakland at Pittsburgh (1 pm, Sunday, CBS)

Beaten and bruised Pittsburgh renews its rivalry with now up-and-coming Oakland in the Steel City. It may seem like a breakthrough for the Raiders to beat the Steelers, but Oakland has actually won the last two against Pittsburgh, a streak the Steelers will want to break at home.

The winner here would get big boost in the race for an AFC Wild Card spot.

NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): A Premature End to Division Races?

Will the return of Ben Roethlisberger make Pittsburgh a legitimate player in the AFC North, or will Cincinnati all but lock up the division with a win Sunday?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're only in Week 8, and a bunch of divisional races may already be over. As crazy as it sounds, the Bengals can grab a stranglehold on the AFC North with a win in Pittsburgh this week, stretching their lead to three games over the Steelers with a victory.

But this isn't unique to one division. We pretty much pencil in New England as the AFC East champ every year, and this season the Patriots have etched it in stone before midseason. Their win over the Dolphins gave them a a two-game lead and the tie-breaker over Buffalo, while the Broncos can all but wrap up the AFC West with a win and Raiders loss this week.

Let's not even talk about the AFC South, which is competitive, but features some of the worst teams in football. When 1-5 Tennessee is only two games out of first place, you've got some problems.

In the NFC things are a bit more competitive, with an NFC South race between Carolina and Atlanta that could bring some high drama, and an NFC West led by Arizona, but with Seattle and St. Louis coming on strong. The NFC North is Green Bay's once again, and the NFC East is as unpredictable, and horrible, as it has been in a while.

With all that in mind, let's take a look at the games that already have playoff implications.

2015 NFL Power Poll No. 1

That's the look of a man who knows his team isn't No. 1 in the Power Rankings

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

With just about a third of the season under our belt, we decided the time was ripe to do things the old fashioned way and just rank all 32 teams in the league (we will likely do this again in another five weeks, give or take, so stay tuned). However, being the long-winded and argumentative individuals that we are, we just couldn't decide on the order we wanted to use. So we settled it like men. We each made our own list and published them side-by-side. Jeremy's list is on the left, Joe's is on the right, and you can see that because they are labeled.

Keep in mind that we didn't devise any new metric for measuring success in the NFL. There is obviously some quantitative analysis (at the very least, we both looked at win-loss records, plus some other stuff), but for the most part, it's a purely qualitative set of rankings. We have arranged the league in tiers (some larger than others), and provided reasonings for a team's placement when necessary. Dig in:

NFL Week 5 Primer (With Picks): Trends Emerge

Kam Chancellor's return has put the "boom" back in Seattle's secondary, but how will they deal with a red-hot Cincinnati offense?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've seen four weeks of football, which means we have five data points - the four games we've seen from (most) teams, plus our preseason expectations. Week Four presented a lot of compelling evidence. The three unbeaten teams we were still on the fence about - Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati - all put a big whoopin' on their opponents. All three teams sport average scoring margins of +9 or better, which, through a quarter of the season, seems like we can say is not a coincidence.

At the very least, we can separate the league into "have"s and "have-not"s, with very few exceptions (for example, I still have no flippin' idea what to make of Minnesota and St. Louis). We know which teams are good and which teams are bad, the only questions that remain are with regards to degrees.

NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks): A Crummy Slate With Some Big Lines

Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are 0-2, but still give over two touchdowns this week to the injury-depleted (and horrible) Bears.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Look, we all know that Jeremy wasn't going to go 13-2-1 every week. Nobody is going to nail 84.3 percent of their picks for a full season. If anyone ever does that, they're a wizard. Ask them who really killed Kennedy.

But Week 2 was a little bit of a regression. Really, not so much of a regression to the mean, but a regression far past the mean and a collision into suckitude. All the teams that came through for him in Week 1 (St. Louis, Miami, San Francisco, Tennessee) flopped, and the teams he made hay betting against (Minnesota, Oakland, Washington) all of a sudden won games outright as underdogs.

Joe wasn't as good Week 1, but still above board (9-6-1), but fell even harder in Week 2. His strategy of intentionally finding games to disagree with Jeremy on backfired, and he went 1-2 in disagreements, expanding Jeremy's lead even further. 

Through two weeks, we haven't really learned much other than the NFC East and AFC South are both hot garbage, the NFC West might not be as good as we think it is, and the AFC East might be the best division in football (so far).

The Patriots look like the clear favorite in the AFC, while the Packers and Cardinals appear to be the class of the NFC for now. Our best guess is that the Patriots will pace the AFC just about all season and a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl will depend on postseason health and matchups, while the NFC will be topsy-turvy for the next month or two before a favorite emerges around Thanksgiving. Who that is, we have no idea. Let's just get to the picks.

NFL Week 2 Primer (With Picks): Are You Not Entertained?

Are Tyrod Taylor and the Bills for real?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy said he was out for blood, and he wasn't kidding. He opened up the season with a 13-2-1 record against the spread, and he only lost the second game because, like a damn fool, he switched picks from Atlanta (who was getting three) to Philadelphia (who was giving three) at the last minute (out of embarrassment and shame, he deleted all Tweets that confirmed this, but Joe still has a screen shot of the text message and threatened to use it if Jeremy tried to weasel his way out).

Historically, Week 2 has been a bad week for us. We come into the season with certain expectations, but Week 1 often turns those expectations upside down. So Week 2 has a lot of uncertainty - do we stick to our guns, or do we change our mind based on what we saw Week 1? Luckily for Jeremy, he burned the house down in Week 1, so he doesn't really have much to correct (unless he just got inexplicably lucky with every pick, which, now that we think about it, is probably much closer to the truth). In any case, Jeremy rides into Week 2 with a 5-1 edge against Joe on disagreements, the biggest single-week victory that either side has had in the history of these picks (which is only two years and one week, but still).

Game(s) of The Week

New England @ Buffalo (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

It's last year's Super Bowl champion going up against the team that might have had the best start-to-finish performance of any team in the league last year (adjusted for opponent, at least - Kansas City or Cincinnati might have been better, but the teams they played are definitely not as good as Indianapolis). Brady lit up a porous Pittsburgh back seven, but Buffalo's staunch defensive line could make life difficult for Touchdown Tom. 

Joe and Daphne's Preview: Our Playoff and Award Winner Picks

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup) - See more at: http://www.suitesports.com/2015/08/joe-daphnes-preview-nfc-south.html#sthash.DcQNnZR2.dpuf

Daphne and I have already previewed each division in the NFL individually. So, if you'd like to look back at those to see your favorite team, check them out below, but now we're moving ahead with the big questions.

So, without further ado, here are the playoff and Award Winner picks from Joe and his less than six-month old pup.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The NFC North

Pictured: Daphne being held by not Joe.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

We finish up our NFC previews with the high-flying North.

I know, imagining a division where passes are flying all over the yard at Lambeau Field and Solider Field is a little weird, but with three of the league's Top-13 passers returning from last season, along with a promising sophomore, and half the division (Minnesota and Detroit) playing indoors, this isn't the NFC Norse of old.

Even with all those yards through the air returning, there are still questions for each team in the North. Can Green Bay find enough defense to get to Super Sunday? Can the Bears turn Jay Cutler's gaudy yardage totals into wins? Can Detroit take the next step and truly contend in the NFC, and how far can Teddy Bridgewater carry Minnesota in his second season, especially with the help of reinstated All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson?

Daphne and I investigate.

Bob Lobel: A Loss of Olympic Proportions

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

There was a ridiculous question floating out there yesterday, suggesting it would be possible to find a scenario to actually fire Bill Belichick! 

Hey, it's possible. Anyone could get the axe. In this case the deed would have to be extremely egregious. It seems it would have to be a vile act of lawlessness outside the purview of football. Yes, he is hated by everyone everywhere, except here.  

Jealousy and envy have a long reach. This question about BB getting a pink slip is ridiculous, but for one exception, in my opinion:  He would have had to be coaching the Green Bay Packers Sunday. 

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Richard Sherman and the Seahawks made quick work of the Packers on opening night. Now they'll try to repeat the performance on the last day of the conference calender.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy once again claimed victory for the week - he was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 straight up through two rounds) to Joe's 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 straight up (making him 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 straight up).

The only pick that both of us nailed was Seattle over Carolina by a hefty margin. Jeremy sniffed out close wins for New England and Green Bay (and subsequent covers for Baltimore and Dallas) but was way off on the Denver-Indianapolis game. Joe was able to sniff out covers for Dallas and Indianapolis (but missed both games straight-up) and thought the Patriots would make quick work of Baltimore. It was a labyrinth of spreads and winners that was far more complicated than it needed to be.

This week should (hopefully) be easier. Both No. 1 seeds are playing at home and favored by a touchdown or just barely more. Let's see what to watch for.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Green Bay:
Record: 12-4 (9-6-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 30.4 (1st) - 21.8 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.6 (3rd) - 11.0 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st); -1.0% Defense (16th); -2.3% Special Teams (22nd); +23.3% Total (3rd)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

NFC Divisional Weekend Preview

Can Tony Romo score a legacy-altering win at Green Bay this weekend? One of our editors thinks so.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We began our Divisional Round preview with the AFC games earlier today, and now we move on to a pair of highly intriguing contests in the National Football Conference. Led by a match up of Blue Chip franchises (and completely different, but equally important fan bases), the Packers hosting the Cowboys is sure to be a ratings bonanza.

Then, the suddenly hot Panthers travel to face reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle. Let's get right into breaking each game down.

Carolina at Seattle (8:15 p.m. Saturday, FOX)

The Line: Seahawks by 11

By The Numbers:

Carolina:
Record: 7-8-1 (8-8 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 21.2 (19th) - 23.4 (21st)
Average Scoring Margin: -2.2 (23rd) - 7.1 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -5.0% Offense (20th); -1.6% Defense (15th); -5.5% Special Teams (30th); -8.9% Total (25th)

Seattle:
Record: 12-4 (10-6 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 24.6 (10th) - 15.9 (1st)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.8 (2nd) - 11.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +16.7% Offense (5th); -16.3% Defense (1st); -1.7% Special Teams (19th); +31.3% Total (1st)

Bob Lobel: Turkey and Rice

By Bob Lobel (@boblobel)

It's entirely possible that turkey and rice on any menu would urge you to say, "I'll take the  Roger and Ray  special."  

The question has become will Ray Rice and Roger Goodell work for the same boss once again? That  boss would be the NFL, and making them co workers again depends on if a team team signs Ray Rice as a running back in need. 

There are a few teams that would be tempted since they could use a semblance of a running game. Why not sign Ray Rice? There is a fairly obvious answer to that question. I have to say that most people who responded to our poll question about Rice coming back and playing came up with a resounding “no way.” 

I'm not sure I agree, and I'll tell you why. 

NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Byes Are Over; NFC South Still Sucks; Thanksgiving

Can Aaron Rodgers and the Pack cool off the red-hot Patriots?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Picks are out a day early this week, as most of you (and us) will be too busy gorging on poultry (or preparing to gorge on poultry, or traveling to a place where you plan to gorge on poultry) come Thursday to read our incessant rambling.

Bye weeks are over, which means from here on out, we get a full slate for the rest of the season. The bad news means that now that bye weeks are over, we're guaranteed to see all four NFC South teams play every week.

NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): RIP Year of The Underdog

Thanks to a big season from Andrew Luck, the Colts have been perennial favorites this year. Favored in eight of their nine games, the Colts are a league-best 7-2 against the spread.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Year of The Underdog is dead.

Long Live Year of The Underdog.

The last time dogs finished above .500 for a week was Week 2. No, seriously, you can look it up and everything. They started the year 20-12 (an astonishing 62.5 percent), but they're just 45-55-2 (45.0 percent) since. Favorites haven't really had a kick-ass week other than a 9-5-1 showing in Week 6, but nothing like the 11-5 drubbing the underdogs put up in Week 1. As a matter of fact, if you exclude Week 1 from the sample (when Vegas is just winging it and so are the gamblers), favorites are 62-54-2. Eight games over .500 through nine weeks is pretty good. Once Vegas course-corrected, it seems like favorites are back in business - and remember, this is after favorites covered on 52.2 percent of spreads last year, the third-highest figure in the last 25 years.

We started the year with "when in doubt, take the points." That doesn't seem to be true anymore.