Inside the NFL Film Room: How 'Bout them Dolphins?

Finding new ways to get Jarvis Landry the ball is just one of the ways Miami is turning its season around.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Miami Dolphins entered their fourth season under coach Joe Philbin with playoff expectations.

Miami had finished 2013 and 2014 with matching 8-8 records, enduring mini-collapses to end both campaigns.

2015 was supposed to be different, as quarterback Ryan Tannahill entered his fourth season as well, now with a revamped receiving corps that included budding young stars Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and DeVante Parker, along with veteran Greg Jennings, and tight ends Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims.

Another unit expected to make a leap was the Dolphins offensive line, which was now two years removed from the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin bullying saga that tore it apart in 2013. Led by star center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Brandon Albert, along with a pair of promising young guards, the Miami line seemed poise to lead the way for a big year from Lamar Miller.

And that was just on offense.

The expectations were even higher on defense, as Miami opened up its wallet this past offseason for All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, signing the former Lion to a 6-year, $114 million deal that made him the highest paid defensive player in league history. Adding Suh to an improving defense that included revitalized pass rusher Cam Wake, and a promising secondary led by Brent Grimes surely made this a playoff team, right?

Unfortunately for Dol-fans, Miami's season began to fall apart almost instantaneously.

NFL Week 4 Primer (With Picks) - Still Can't Be Sure

The Bengals and quarterback Andy Dalton (14) come into Week 4 undefeated and riding high, while linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) and the 0-3 Ravens badly need a win Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We've learned a few things over the first three weeks of the season - The Packers still have an elite offense even without Jordy Nelosn, the Broncos have maybe the best defense in football, the Patriots plan on scoring a lot of points, and the Cardinals are taking no prisoners. Meanwhile, Chicago and New Orleans suck, and the AFC South is a dumpster fire as usual.

But there's a lot we still don't know. For instance - is Atlanta actually good? They've beaten three NFC East teams, but the NFC East might suck. Are the Panthers good? They're also 3-0, but they've also defeated three terrible teams. Are the Colts as bad as they look, or are the Bills and Jets just much better than we were anticipating? How good (or bad) are teams like Tennessee, Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, St. Louis, and the entire AFC North? There's still a lot of uncertainty about.

Game(s) of the Week

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:25 p.m. Thursday, CBS/NFL Network)

I know Ben Roethlisberger isn't playing in this one, but it's still Steelers-Ravens in Pittsburgh, and both teams have a ton to play for. The 2-1 Steelers are just hoping to stay afloat without their franchise quarterback, and they'll lean on the largely washed up Michael Vick to manage the offense, hoping that All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown and All-Pro running back Le'Veon Bell can bring him along.

On the other side, the Ravens are 0-3 for the first time since the club moved to Baltimore, and staring a playoff-less season in the face. Aging receiver Steve Smith Sr. is playing like a young pup again, but the Ravens haven't found any other reliable weapons offensively. Normally that wouldn't be a huge problem, but Baltimore is currently a below-average defense thanks to the loss of All-Pro linebacker Terrell Suggs, ranking 22nd in the league in total defense (and that counts a solid Week 1 performance in which Suggs played most of the game).

Both teams have issues in the secondary, but can the toothless Ravens skill position group or the Vick-led Steelers offense capitalize?

NFL Week 2 Primer (With Picks): Are You Not Entertained?

Are Tyrod Taylor and the Bills for real?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy said he was out for blood, and he wasn't kidding. He opened up the season with a 13-2-1 record against the spread, and he only lost the second game because, like a damn fool, he switched picks from Atlanta (who was getting three) to Philadelphia (who was giving three) at the last minute (out of embarrassment and shame, he deleted all Tweets that confirmed this, but Joe still has a screen shot of the text message and threatened to use it if Jeremy tried to weasel his way out).

Historically, Week 2 has been a bad week for us. We come into the season with certain expectations, but Week 1 often turns those expectations upside down. So Week 2 has a lot of uncertainty - do we stick to our guns, or do we change our mind based on what we saw Week 1? Luckily for Jeremy, he burned the house down in Week 1, so he doesn't really have much to correct (unless he just got inexplicably lucky with every pick, which, now that we think about it, is probably much closer to the truth). In any case, Jeremy rides into Week 2 with a 5-1 edge against Joe on disagreements, the biggest single-week victory that either side has had in the history of these picks (which is only two years and one week, but still).

Game(s) of The Week

New England @ Buffalo (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)

It's last year's Super Bowl champion going up against the team that might have had the best start-to-finish performance of any team in the league last year (adjusted for opponent, at least - Kansas City or Cincinnati might have been better, but the teams they played are definitely not as good as Indianapolis). Brady lit up a porous Pittsburgh back seven, but Buffalo's staunch defensive line could make life difficult for Touchdown Tom. 

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC East

Daphne: "Release me vile human!"

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Welcome to our first NFL preview of the summer! My pup and I are happy to have you. Over the next several weeks we will be taking a look at every division in the league, along with making playoff and award predictions.

We begin today with the AFC East, a division owned by the New England Patriots, or, more specifically, quarterback Tom Brady, who has won the division in all but one of his healthy seasons since taking over as the Patriots' starter in mid-2001. That's 12 division titles in Brady's 13 seasons, if you're curious, with the Patriots winning the division 12 times overall in that 14 year span.

In that time, only one other quarterback has won the AFC East: The immortal Chad Pennington, who went 7-2 as a starter for the 2002 Jets, and led the Dolphins to a division crown during Brady's injury lost season of 2008.

Unfortunately, Chad Pennington ain't walking through that door for anybody in the division.

Still, the AFC East could be better and deeper than it has been in years, thanks to some suddenly salty defenses. But, will the division's traditional also-rans get enough out of their quarterbacks to capitalize on their stellar defensive fronts? Daphne and I examine.

What Should Peyton Manning Do Now?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

There will obviously be much discussion today about the future of Peyton Manning, following his lackluster performance in Denver's Divisional Round loss to Indianapolis.

It was also revealed today by ESPN's Adam Schefter that Manning had played the final month of the season with a torn quad, which makes sense to anybody who watched the Broncos, because Manning just did not look right at all down the stretch.

At the age of 38, and coming off a major injury and playoff disappointment, I don't have a clue what Peyton Manning will do, but I have some ideas about what he should do.

It would be somewhat fitting for Manning's final game to come against his old team, and in a "passing of the torch" game, no less, but there's also the possibility the old man comes back for one more shot at a title with the Broncos next season.

Those seem to be the two most likely options, but I'm here to tell you that, if Peyton wants to win another championship (basically the only reason he's still playing), he needs to borrow the strategies of another aging legendary quarterback, and those of a transcendent NBA superstar.

Obviously, I'm talking about Brett Favre and LeBron James.

Lobel's Question of the Week: Could You Ever Bench Brady?

Every week, legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel wants to hear your opinion on something that caught his eye over the weekend.

Now you know why "any given Sunday" is in our football vocabulary. The phrase means, of course, that anything can happen and Murphy's Law is always in play.

If it can happen, it will happen.

NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): Year Of The Favorite?

The Broncos have been favored by over a touchdown (6.5 points or higher) a league-high seven times in nine games. More impressively, the perennial big favorites have covered in five of those seven contests.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

During last week's intro, we mentioned that what we once thought would be the Year of The Underdog turned out to, well, not be. The eight-week stretch running from Week 3 through Week 10 saw favorites go 55-45-2, but it was mostly incremental - going 7-6 or 8-7 in a given week.

Well, last week blew the doors open. Favorites were a jarring 10-3 against the spread, will all three underdog covers coming early - Thursday night (Cleveland) and two 1 o'clock Sunday games (the Jets and San Francisco), and all three underdogs won outright. That means that starting with the late games on Sunday, favorites swept, going 5-0, an absolute disaster for Vegas (the most bets/money always comes in on the 4:25 national game, the Sunday night game, and Monday night, and the public always prefers favorites).

Is there an overreaction this week? Maybe. There are some pretty big spreads (two over 10 points), and several between relatively even teams that you might expect to fall in the 3-5 point range, but instead see favorites laying a touchdown.

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 3-10
Season: 68-77-2
Home Dogs, Last Week: 1-3
Home Dogs, Season: 17-25-1

Game(s) of The Week:

Buffalo @ Miami (8:30 p.m. Thursday, NFL Network)

This might be our first official "Loser Leaves Town" game of the year. With the Patriots rolling, neither team is likely to win the division, and with the entire AFC North still competitive, plus the Chiefs and Chargers, being 5-5 through 11 weeks probably isn't good enough. Whoever wins will end up at 6-4 and still be in the thick of it.

Catching Up With Bob Lobel: Will the Real Patriots Please Stand Up?

Join legendary sportscaster Bob Lobel and host Joe Parello as they discuss the hot and cold New England Patriots. Are the Pats Super Bowl contenders again after Monday's win over the Bengals, or are they still the vulnerable team that was exploited in Kansas City?


Plus, what should we expect from tomorrow's surprising battle for first place against Buffalo, and is the talk of Tom Brady's frustration with Bill Belichick legitimate?

Bob and Joe break it down in this week's episode.

Last Minute Fantasy Start'ems and Sit'ems: Week 5

I had you start Ben Roethlisberger last week, but the Steelers are playing the Jags today, so let's go two in a row for Big Ben.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We're a few weeks into the 2014 season, and we're starting to get a bit more of a feel for which teams present the toughest (and easiest) matchups for your borderline fantasy starter.

Matchups played a huge part in this week's picks, as I opted to avoid Buffalo skill players (who must work with new starting quarterback Kyle Orton) against the stingy Detroit defense, but made all of my "start'em" picks based on favorable matchups.

So, without further ado, here are this week's last minute start'ems and sit'ems.

NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks): Meet In The Middle

Tom Brady and the Patriots looked bad in week one, but great in week two. Which one is the real New England?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Week 3 is when we really start to figure out who's good and who isn't. We all come into the season with some idea, but sometimes Week 1 turns that on its head (to wit - New England and Green Bay both lost by two touchdowns). Week 2 gives us more information, but sometimes it contradicts what Week 1 told us (like Seattle falling to San Diego after stomping the Packers), and other times it even further confuses our pre-season ideas (for example, Buffalo is now 2-0 and New Orleans is 0-2).

But Week 3 galvanizes. If you have a team with two drastically different performances (New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco, to name a few), whichever one Week 3 more closely resembles is probably a good bet for how they'll play the rest of the year. For teams that start a surprising 0-2 (Indianapolis, New Orleans), if Week 3 isn't an improvement, one probably isn't coming. For team's that start a surprising 2-0 (Buffalo, Houston, Carolina, Arizona), another Week 3 win probably means they're the real deal.

From a gambling standpoint, this means you probably have one more week to stick to your guns. If a team has burned you twice, don't toss them aside just yet. The first quarter of the season is about patience.

UNDERDOG UPDATE:

Dogs finished 9-7 against the spread in Week 2, moving them to 20-12 for the year (Buffalo-Miami closed as a pick'em, but Buffalo was the home team, and thus the official "favorite"). There were four home dogs, who finished 2-2, moving that total to 4-3 on the year. This week there are five home dogs.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC East

Tom Brady is still under center for the Patriots, but it will be New England's defense that will need to carry them if they want to make it back to the Super Bowl.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC East will (in overwhelming likelihood) not be hotly contested. The division title, for years, has been the reward the New England Patriots receive simply for showing up with a healthy quarterback. The Patriots have won 12 or more games in eight of the last eleven seasons. No other team in the division has even done it once. They've won the division in 11 of the last 13. The two years they didn't they came damn close - in 2008, they went 11-5 but lost the division to the also 11-5 Dolphins, despite the Patriots posting a far superior scoring margin. In 2002, there was a three-way tie at 9-7 atop the division, but the Patriots lost out to the Jets on tiebreakers despite, again, a superior scoring margin.

Nobody really expects anyone to challenge the Patriots, which is why they have the second-steepest odds to win their division - Vegas sees only Denver as a bigger lock to win their division. But after the Patriots, the division is very much in flux. And with the conference so up in the air outside of New England and Denver, whoever grabs second in the AFC East could very well be a dangerous Wild Card team.

Tampa Bay Cuts Benched Quarterback - Josh Freeman Now Free Man

Josh Freeman's days in Tampa Bay are over, but he could find a new home quickly. (Flickr)

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the hilarious decision to release Josh Freeman on Thursday, making him available to sign with any team he chooses. According to ESPN sources, the Bucs contacted each of the 31 other teams but were unable to find a taker for Freeman (or, more accurately, Freeman's $6.2 million cap hit).

Freeman is now three years removed from a particularly strong 2010 season, when he threw for 25 touchdowns against just six interceptions, and finished 6th in the league in passer rating. His 2011 season was undoubtedly disappointing (regression was not kind to Freeman - his interception rate spiked from 1.3% to 4.0%), but he bounced back with an respectable 2012, throwing for over 4000 yards and finishing 18th in Total QBR among 39 qualified candidates.

The Most Buffalo Bills-ey Thing Ever

By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

With rookie first round pick E.J. Manuel recovering from minor knee surgery and Kevin Kolb's career in jeopardy due to a third concussion, the Buffalo Bills did something that it just seems fitting for the Buffalo Bills to do: Name an undrafted rookie their opening day starter.

Jeff Tuel, an unheralded signal caller that should fit right in with the Bills after doing a great deal of losing at Washington State, was considered a long shot to even make the team a few weeks ago. But, because these are the Bills of the last decade plus, he is now their only hope against Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Geez God, can't you take it easy on Buffalo?

Long and Suite Preview: The AFC East

Belichick and Brady have ruled the AFC East for a dozen years, but how much longer can the Pats dominate the division?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

It's been a dozen years of dominance for New England in the AFC East. The Pats have won 10 of the 12 division titles since Tom Brady stepped in for the injured Drew Bledsoe back in 2001, not to mention appeared in five Super Bowls, winning three.

So basically, this has been the Brady/Belichick division for a generation now.

Will that change this season, with new offensive talent assembled in South Florida and a new era underway in Buffalo? Probably not, but for the first time in a while, the Patriots don't look unstoppable on offense, so perhaps this is the beginning of the end for New England's dominant run.

The Best Bad Quarterback Battles in the NFL

You don't think that petition for Tebow will work, do you?

By Joe Parello  @HerewegoJoe

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, with historic names like Brady, Manning(Both of 'em), Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Brees capturing nine of the last 10 Super Bowls.

Oh, and I guess last year's winner Joe Flacco ain't too shabby either.

The point is, to play a good football at the NFL level, you need high-level quarterback play. None of these teams have that luxury. So, without further ado, here is a look at the quarterback battles that will be entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Buffalo Bills: Tavaris Jackson vs Kevin Kolb vs E.J. Manuel