AFC Divisional Round Primer (With Picks): One Good, One Bad

Long touchdowns will be key for KC against the Steelers.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy and Joe split the two AFC games last weekend. Both of us made the easy call no problem (Pittsburgh over Miami - although a 10-point spread was reasonably steep), and both of us missed the who-knows-who-cares game between Oakland and Houston to open the weekend.

This weekend, both of our favorite teams take the field looking to win in order to face each other in the playoffs. Depending on who you ask, one of us (Jeremy) will tell you both games ought to be a lot of fun (because the Patriots will probably blow out the Texans, and the Pittsburgh-Kansas City game should be entertaining), while the other (Joe) will tell you that both games ought to be pretty nerve-wracking (because a Patriots win means Pittsburgh needs to go through Foxborough to win the AFC, if they can even escape Kansas City with a win of their own).

Let's take a look at the matchups.

Your AFC Wild Card Primer

Since Eric Fisher (pictured) moved from right to left tackle, and left guard Jeff Allen returned from injury, the Chiefs have led the league in every relevant rushing category and gone 10-0. How is nobody talking about this, and how are no Chiefs linemen in the Pro Bowl?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Regular Season Is Dead. Long Live The Regular Season.

For the third year in a row, Joe took home the regular season crown, besting Jeremy by a single game (132-116-8 to 131-117-8), but both records mark our best single-season record to date. You can check out our complete three-year totals here, if you're so inclined.

Now begins the 11-game sprint of the postseason, marked not by exploiting ongoing inefficiencies (like Minnesota's ludicrous 13-3 record against the spread or Cincinnati's undefeated ATS record in road games), but by diving head-first down the rabbit hole of the details and the matchups.

Backdoor covers usually don't save you in the playoffs. When underdogs cover, they usually win outright.

With just four games spread across two days, as opposed to the regular 16, with 14 of them occurring on the same day, we are afforded greater space to go into greater detail. We'll start here, with the AFC, as both of their games kick off Saturday.

NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Well, Another AFC Shakeup

The Pittsburgh offense has been on a tear, but can they score on Denver's top-ranked defense?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Just when we thought the AFC couldn't get any weirder, it goes and does something like this.

One week after a shocking New England loss at home to Philadelphia sent the Patriots tumbling all the way down to the No. 3 seed, the Bengals and Broncos both suffered shocking home losses of their own (you could argue that Cincinnati's was slightly less shocking, but getting blown out and losing your starting quarterback to injury certainly qualifies as shocking).

And so, New England is back in the driver's seat in the AFC. Cincinnati's offense is thrown into a great deal of havoc without Andy Dalton, and Denver's offense is back to appearing eminently stoppable. Meanwhile, the two hottest teams in the conference are Kansas City and Pittsburgh, who have combined to win 11 of their last 12 games (four of five for Pittsburgh, seven straight for the Chiefs) and suddenly present two semi-realistic scenarios for an AFC team to win three straight road games and advance to the Super Bowl, an idea that seemed ludicrous a month ago. And somehow, the Jets are still in the mix (and entering this week, hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC).

And holy mother of god, does the entire AFC South need to be banished to the Arena League. The Colts sit at 6-7, with a scoring margin of -81 on the season, and STILL somehow hold the division lead. And the Jaguars are still mathematically alive. I need a drink.

Inside the NFL Film Room: How 'Bout them Dolphins?

Finding new ways to get Jarvis Landry the ball is just one of the ways Miami is turning its season around.

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Miami Dolphins entered their fourth season under coach Joe Philbin with playoff expectations.

Miami had finished 2013 and 2014 with matching 8-8 records, enduring mini-collapses to end both campaigns.

2015 was supposed to be different, as quarterback Ryan Tannahill entered his fourth season as well, now with a revamped receiving corps that included budding young stars Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and DeVante Parker, along with veteran Greg Jennings, and tight ends Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims.

Another unit expected to make a leap was the Dolphins offensive line, which was now two years removed from the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin bullying saga that tore it apart in 2013. Led by star center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Brandon Albert, along with a pair of promising young guards, the Miami line seemed poise to lead the way for a big year from Lamar Miller.

And that was just on offense.

The expectations were even higher on defense, as Miami opened up its wallet this past offseason for All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, signing the former Lion to a 6-year, $114 million deal that made him the highest paid defensive player in league history. Adding Suh to an improving defense that included revitalized pass rusher Cam Wake, and a promising secondary led by Brent Grimes surely made this a playoff team, right?

Unfortunately for Dol-fans, Miami's season began to fall apart almost instantaneously.

Joe & Daphne's Preview: The AFC South

   
By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe) and Daphne Parello (@DaphnePup)

Daphne and I took a look at the NFC South last week, and we open this week previewing their AFC brethren. The AFC South boasts a Super Bowl contender and a bunch of teams searching for answers, as Andrew Luck's Colts hope to get over the top while Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville just hope to avoid the Top-5 of the draft next year.

Can Indianapolis make it to Super Sunday, and which of the South's up-and-coming teams has the best chance of breaking through in 2015? Daphne and I investigate.

Long And Suite Preview: The AFC South

Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the division. But can he stay upright long enough for the Colts to take advantage?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The AFC South was a joke last season. They had the worst cumulative record (24-40) of any division in football. In fact, it was the worst cumulative record of any division from any year since the 2008 NFC West (22-42).

It was a weird season. The Colts beat each of the three best teams in football (Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco), then lost to the Rams and Cardinals by a combined 59 points. The Texans went 2-14, but five of those losses came by three points or less, and they under-performed their expected record (based on point differential) by a full two wins. The Jaguars went 4-12, but three of those wins came against the other crap teams in the division (two against Houston, one against Tennessee), and the other came against Cleveland. And none of the wins were by more than a touchdown. They lost their first eight games by an average of 22.5 points. That's some world-class suck. The Titans were your generic average team. They beat the crap teams and lost to the good teams. The only really surprising result was beating the Chargers.

The division should improve this year top to bottom. The two divisions they played last year were the AFC West and NFC West, far and away the two best divisions in football. The four teams in the AFC South played the four hardest schedules in the AFC (Houston played the hardest, then Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee). This year, they'll play the NFC East (which could under-whelm again), and AFC North (ditto), offering an easier path towards respectability.

NFL Draft Storylines

Blake Bortles led UCF to a historic season in 2013, but where will he go in the 2014 NFL Draft?

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The 2014 NFL Draft is being hailed by scouts as the best in a decade, and there will be no shortage of storylines during ESPN's three-day coverage extravaganza.

We've already discussed the incredible storylines that came out of the last highly anticipated draft class, the class of 2004, but here are some things that may happen when the draft begins Thursday night.

To Trade, or Not to Trade

It's always a question for the team at No. 1, and this year's Texans are an odd case. They resemble last season's Chiefs in the sense that they are more talented than their terrible record shows, but they'll need to get healthy and find an impact player to shoot them back toward the playoffs.

Jadeveon Clowney is a once-in-a-decade talent, but there are questions about his motor and technique. Basically, we're manufacturing reasons why this freak athlete might not be good.

The Official NFL Week 3 Primer (With Picks)

The Eagles will look to come out on top against their former coach Thursday night.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

In a lot of ways, Week 3 is just as hard to figure out as Week 2. In Week 2, you're weighing Week 1 against your pre-conceived biases that you held entering the season. In Week 3, you're weighing Week 2 against the preconceived biases that you developed after weighing your pre-conceived biases from pre-season against Week 1.

If that makes sense.

Long and Suite Preview: The AFC South

Was it Andrew Luck, or simply dumb luck that got Indianapolis into the playoffs last season?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The South was a top-heavy division in 2012, with both Houston and Indianapolis qualifying for the postseason and Tennessee and Jacksonville largely serving as punchlines for some joke about stagnant franchises with no real support.

Despite all this, the top three spots in the South appear to be up for grabs in 2013. Indianapolis rode rookie quarterback Andrew Luck to a Wild Card berth last year, but are the Colts as good as their 11-5 record says, or are they a team that allowed 30 more points than they scored (yes, they are) and caught a few breaks along the way?

Houston again had one of the league's most balanced offenses and best defenses, but the Texans do have concerns in the secondary. Can newly signed safety Ed Reed stay healthy and play like the ball-hawk he was two or three years ago, or will he be an unexpected downgrade from the underrated and now departed Glover Quin?

Then there's Tennessee, a team with talent at the skill positions and a suddenly promising offensive line. A below average defense and inconsistent play from quarterback Jake Locker doomed the Titans in 2012, but we've seen quick defensive turnarounds in this division before, and Locker did show flashes in his first full season as a starter.

The Jaguars… Well, uh…. They're still in Jacksonville.