NFC Wild Card Weekend Primer (With Picks): Talking About Playoffs

Can Aaron Rodgers stay in Superman mode against the Giants?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

We already wrapped up all the loose ends from the regular season at the top of our AFC Preview, so check that out if you want all that good stuff. Here in the NFC Preview, we'll just get straight to the action.

Detroit at Seattle (8:00 p.m. Sunday, NBC)

Opening Line: Seahawks by 7
Current Line: Seahawks by 7.5

By The Numbers:

Detroit:
Record: 9-7 Overall, 3-5 Road; 7-8-1 Against the Spread, 3-5 Road
Average Score: 21.6 (20th) - 22.4 (13th)
Average Scoring Margin: -0.8 (21st); 7.7 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -1.0% Offense (15th); +20.4% Defense (32nd); +3.7% Special Teams (6th); -17.6% Total (27th)

Seattle: 
Record: 10-5-1 Overall, 7-1 Home; 7-8-1 Against the Spread; 4-3-1 Home
Average Score: 22.1 (18th) - 18.3 (3rd)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.9 (6th); 9.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: -2.7% Offense (17th); -10.9% Defense (5th); +0.5% Special Teams (13th); +8.7% Total (9th)

AFC Wild Card Weekend Primer (With Picks): Snoozefest

Jay Ajayi ran over, through and around the Steelers defense, to the tune of 206 yards, when these teams met in October.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

With the coming of the New Year, we also marked the end of a quietly forgettable NFL regular season. Other than the rise of Dak Prescott, was there much else that was that remarkable? I mean, sure, the Raiders surged, but Derek Carr's injury effectively ended their season - they have a puncher's chance against Houston, but after that they're almost certainly toast.

The Panthers and Cardinals and Broncos and Bengals all failed to make the playoffs after dominating much of last year, but none of those regressions were particularly shocking (it's not like the Patriots or Seahawks fell apart). Both quarterbacks from the top of the 2015 draft had strong second seasons, but both faltered late in the season and missed the playoffs. Sure, Miami is making a surprise appearance in Week 18 for the first time in a while, but they're also without their quarterback.

It's tough to point to any player in particular who made a substantial leap forward other than Derek Carr, but, as previously mentioned, he's out for the season. Prescott and Elliot were the other breakout stars of the season, but that's about it. For some reason it feels like there were fewer surprises this season - the cream pretty much rose to the top. Perhaps that means we're in for a particularly wacky postseason. As fans of the Patriots and Steelers, we're certainly hopeful that the AFC bracket goes (mostly) according to script, but a funky NFC side would be alright by us.

For the [we've lost count]th season in a row, Mr. Parello took the regular season picks crown (Ed. Note- Joe has not lost count, and it's the fourth season in a row). Jeremy needed to make up seven games to pull into a tie, but went 5-4 on nine disagreements in Week 17 to fall short. For the season, Joe finished 127-121-8 (45-39-1 on disagreements), besting Jeremy's 121-127-8 mark. However, Jeremy has won the playoff crown the last two seasons, so if you value a large sample size, Joe is your guy. But if you value clutch performance when the money is on the table (literally), Jeremy's picks have been the way to go.

Your AFC Wild Card Primer

Since Eric Fisher (pictured) moved from right to left tackle, and left guard Jeff Allen returned from injury, the Chiefs have led the league in every relevant rushing category and gone 10-0. How is nobody talking about this, and how are no Chiefs linemen in the Pro Bowl?

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Regular Season Is Dead. Long Live The Regular Season.

For the third year in a row, Joe took home the regular season crown, besting Jeremy by a single game (132-116-8 to 131-117-8), but both records mark our best single-season record to date. You can check out our complete three-year totals here, if you're so inclined.

Now begins the 11-game sprint of the postseason, marked not by exploiting ongoing inefficiencies (like Minnesota's ludicrous 13-3 record against the spread or Cincinnati's undefeated ATS record in road games), but by diving head-first down the rabbit hole of the details and the matchups.

Backdoor covers usually don't save you in the playoffs. When underdogs cover, they usually win outright.

With just four games spread across two days, as opposed to the regular 16, with 14 of them occurring on the same day, we are afforded greater space to go into greater detail. We'll start here, with the AFC, as both of their games kick off Saturday.

AFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

The Ravens and Steelers rekindle one of the league's most physical rivalries Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Jeremy already provided you with an intro and all that good stuff in our NFC Wild Card preview, so let's skip the pleasantries and get right to previewing an AFC Wild Card weekend that includes a Steelers-Ravens rubber match and a shot at redemption for both Cincinnati and Indianapolis. 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Steelers by 3.5

By The Numbers:

Baltimore:
Record: 10-6 (7-8-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.6 (8th) - 18.9 (6th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.7 (6th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +9.7% Offense (9th); -4.6% Defense (8th); +8.0% Special Teams (2nd); +22.2% Total (5th)

Pittsburgh:
Record: 11-5 (9-7 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 27.2 (7th) - 23.0 (18th)
Average Scoring Margin: +4.2 (10th) - 9.6 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +22.5% Offense (2nd); +11.3% Defense (30th), +0.9% Special Teams (12th); +12.1% Total (8th)

NFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

The Dallas backfield combo of Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray has been lethal this season, but the Cowboys will face a huge test against Detroit's vaunted defense.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

The Regular Season is dead. Long Live the Regular Season.

Jeremy went a clutch 10-5-1 to miraculously finish the season over .500 (127-122-7), but it wasn't enough to catch Joe, who finished 129-120-7. For the season, Joe beat Jeremy 35-33-2 on disagreements, and it came down to the wire - had the Patriots covered against Buffalo, the season would have ended in a tie.

(Also, worth noting that Jeremy is protesting the Week 17 picks method - he picked the games first and Joe decided whether he agreed or disagreed, which Jeremy feels gave Joe the unfair advantage, especially when defending a lead in Week 17. There were several picks that Jeremy was on the fence about, and had Joe made his picks first, Jeremy would have leaned the other way in an effort to make up ground. And Jeremy claims that the games he was on the fence about - namely Oakland at Denver and New Orleans at Tampa Bay were ones that would have resulted in a season victory had Joe picked first, thus allowing Jeremy to disagree with him. But everyone can agree that Jeremy just needs to quit his whining.)

So Joe is our regular season champion. Barely. But now Jeremy is prepared to exact his revenge in the postseason. After a grueling 256-game marathon, this 11-game sprint is all about the details. Like we did last year, we'll go into greater detail for these games, because we can.

We've split it up into AFC and NFC previews (as opposed to a Saturday preview and a Sunday preview), so this covers Saturday's tilt between Arizona and Carolina, and Sunday's showdown with Detroit and Dallas.

NFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

The Eagles' offense has to be smiling about facing a depleted Saints defense in Philly.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Yesterday, we previewed the AFC half of Wild Card Weekend - today, the NFC half. We aren't going to bother with an intro like we did yesterday, let's just get straight to the games.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

The Line: Eagles by 2.5

By The Numbers:

New Orleans:
Record: 11-5 (8-7-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 25.9 (10th) - 19.0 (4th)
Average Scoring Margin: +6.9 (7th) - 10.8 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.9% Offense (5th); -5.9% Defense (10th); -2.5% Special Teams (24th); +19.3% Total (4th)

Philadelphia:
Record: 10-6 (8-7-1 vs. The Spread)
Average Score: 27.6 (4th) - 23.9 (17th)
Average Scoring Margin: +3.8 (9th) - 9.4 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +22.9% Offense (2nd); +5.0% Defense (23rd); -2.8% Special Teams (25th); +15.1% Total (8th)

Player(s) To Watch: DeSean Jackson

Philadelphia's rushing attack gets the lion's share of the attention, and deservedly so - their 2566 yards on the ground and 5.1 yards per rush both led the league by sizeable margins, and their DVOA score (+23.7%) had such a large lead over the rest of the field that the 2nd-best rush offense by that metric (Kansas City - +12.3%) was actually closer to league average than they were to first.

And yet, if not for DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia might not have even made the playoffs.

AFC Wild Card Weekend Preview

Can Kansas City sack duo Justin Houston and Tamba Hali stop Andrew Luck?

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

So, the regular season is over.

We both finished up the season on a strong note - Jeremy went 10-6 against the spread in Week 17 to finish at 118-129-11, for a winning percentage of .484. Joe finished up with a 11-5 week to finish at 125-122-11, cracking the .500 mark for the first time all season.

(In Jeremy's defense, several of his Week 17 picks were made solely to disagree with Joe in an effort to gain ground, and as it turned out all three of those picks - Washington over New York, Arizona over San Francisco, and St. Louis over Seattle - went wrong. Jeremy could have finished with a 13-3 Week 17 if not for his overly-competitive side trying to close Joe's lead. His loss.)

So Joe is our regular season champion. He's also in the lead in the Suite Sports Bowl Pick'em Challenge and will likely take home the crown unless Clemson beats Ohio State in the Orange Bowl and Auburn upsets Florida State in the National Championship game (not because Jeremy picked Auburn, but because Joe has the game worth 10 extra confidence points that Jeremy won't be able to make up).

So Jeremy's final hope to save his dignity is to beat Joe over the next 11-game sprint that is the NFL Playoffs.