By Jeremy Conlin
So, in case you didn’t hear yesterday, the Philadelphia
Eagles hired former Oregon head coach and offensive mad scientist Chip Kelly.
The hiring (at this point) does not appear to be a hoax, so we’ll press on
under the assumption that he will, in fact, coach the Eagles next season.
Kelly will likely bring his offensive system to the NFL,
but there are doubts as to the degree that it will be successful. For one,
Kelly has never played or coached in the NFL in any capacity. Secondly, there
are
schematic
reasons as to why the offense might not work (most notably increased risk
of injury to the quarterback, and pro player’s increased access to video study
compared to college players). However, the basic principles of the offense
(fast pace, simple reads, getting athletes into space) have been proven to work
for teams like New England, Washington, Green Bay, and New Orleans.
One reason why Kelly may be able to have immediate
success in the NFL, at least on offense, if not overall team success, is that he’ll
be coaching a team that has pieces in place that fit into his model. Every year
at Oregon, he’s had a mobile, fleet-footed quarterback, a versatile running
back that is equally effective as a ball carrier and receiver, and various
other explosive athletes everywhere else on the field. In Philadelphia, he has
a mobile, fleet-footed quarterback (Michael Vick), a versatile running back
(LeSean McCoy), and speed everywhere else (Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Bryce
Brown). Their offensive line can be generously described as catastrophic, but
it’s easier to fix an offensive line than it is to find dynamic skill players.
With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to assemble
an offense that would be tailor-made for a Chip Kelly team. In the interest of
fairness, I’ve only selected two first-round draft choices from the last three
drafts, and everyone else is either a mid- or late-round draft choice, or a
player that has entered open free agency over the last two years (or will
likely enter free agency this summer). In other words, I’m not stacking the
deck with Calvin and Andre Johnson at wide receiver and a backfield with Adrian
Peterson and Ray Rice. This is an
offense that could have conceivably been assembled under the salary cap with
savvy negotiation and strong foresight on draft day.
The most integral piece of the puzzle is obviously
quarterback. While a wizard like Peyton Manning would undoubtedly thrive in any
offense, an inability to run zone-read schemes would likely put a ceiling on
the productivity of Kelly’s offense. The quarterback needs to be an effective
runner (and not just a scrambler, which rules out guys like Aaron Rodgers and
Andrew Luck).This leaves us with really just five choices: Robert Griffin III,
Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Michael Vick. Right away we
can throw out Vick (he’s too expensive and not even productive enough if he
weren’t) and Griffin (his knee injury is an unnecessary risk in this exercise),
and I’ll pass over Wilson as well (he isn’t as dynamic as the others in the
running game). I’ll go here:
QB: Cam Newton
I go with Newton over Kaepernick mostly because of his
superior effectiveness in short yardage. A strong argument could be made that
it’s Kaepernick who has the better top-end speed and dynamism in space on the
edges, but it’s not by enough to offset the fact that Cam Newton is the size of
a Range Rover. That size will come in handy when you see the running backs.
RB: C.J. Spiller
RB: Darren Sproles
I went with Sproles opposite him because of his amazing
ability as a receiver out of the backfield. Over the last two seasons, he’s put
up numbers as a receiver that haven’t been matched by any running back not
named Marshall Faulk.
The key with both Spiller and Sproles is that they’re
equally effective lined up in the backfield or split out in the slot or even on
the outside. That versatility allows the offense to effectively run the same
play over and over again, just with the skill players lining up in different
spots. It’s the simplicity of the offense that makes it great, and having
versatile players is the first item on the checklist.
The one player in Chip Kelly’s repertoire that isn’t
required to have great versatility is the outside receiver. The Oregon offense
is at its best when they have a big, physical downfield threat that can stretch
the defense and create space underneath for the rest of the offense. Let’s go
here:
WR: Vincent Jackson
Jackson plays the role that was filled by Jeff Maehl, Lavasier
Tuinei, and Josh Huff over the last three seasons for the Ducks. His sole
responsibility is to run in straight lines down the field, out-bully defensive
backs for deep balls, and prevent safeties from jumping underneath routes and
decapitating other receivers. Like these guys:
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: T.Y. Hilton
WR: Cecil Shorts
Cobb is more of a household name by virtue of playing for
the Packers, but Hilton and Shorts did a lot of the same things for
Indianapolis and Jacksonville, respectively. Cobb is a bit more of a Swiss army
knife, lining up at seemingly every skill position, whereas Hilton and Shorts
are more downfield threats, but all three are comfortable running a diverse set
of routes from the slot, the outside, or even the backfield. The offense is
predicated around getting athletes into space, and these are the three best
bargain space players in the league.
The one element that Kelly was never able to fully
utilize at Oregon was his tight end. It’s unclear, however, whether that was
because he lacked talent at the position, or simply the tight end isn’t a
priority in his offense. I’ll fix the first potential problem with this:
TE: Aaron Hernandez
He doesn’t get the fanfare that his counterpart, Rob
Gronkowski does, but he’s arguably a better fit for the blur offense. He’s more
a versatile receiver, albeit a comically inferior blocker, but that’s not a
huge priority in this offense. He runs a more diverse package of routes, and
he’s equally effective regardless of where he lines up. Guys like Jimmy Graham and Rob
Gronkowski beat you with sheer size and strength – you know that they’re
running in a straight line down the seam and you still can’t stop it. Hernandez,
however, beats you with unpredictability. You don’t know where he’s going to
line up or what he’s going to do once the ball is snapped. That’s the type of
player that fits into Kelly’s offense.
So that’s the team. I indulged myself with Newton, reached
in the draft for Spiller, and splurged in free agency for Vincent Jackson, but
everyone else is off the bargain rack. Sproles signed a modest contract during
the 2011 offseason, Hernandez was a 4th-round pick in 2010, Cobb was
a 3rd-round pick in 2011, and Hilton and Shorts were 3rd-
and 4th-round picks, respectively, in 2012.
I’m not going to tackle the offensive line, but common
sense dictates that it should be made up of smaller, more agile guys, suited
for the stretch/screen/zone read offense. Obviously, Kelly won’t be quite this
fortunate with his 2013 roster, but assuming Vick stays around, along with
McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, and Brown, he has many of the right tools in place to
be successful.
