The Patriots' Comeback Wasn't (Quite) As Unexpected As You Think It Was

This is Tom Brady. Tom Brady is good at football. Look at Tom be good at football.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

I'll be up front - I'm still not totally prepared to talk about this game rationally. There's a 40% chance that I died on Sunday night and this is just the afterlife that I've chosen for myself (and it just happens to be remarkably similar to the life I was living previously - right down to the ongoing recovery from a recent surgery).

That being said, I feel like everything I've heard and read about the Super Bowl over the last day-plus has been expressing abject incredulity that the Patriots were able to mount a comeback. I'm here to present a few loose, scattered thoughts that hopefully apply some degree of logic to how and why it happened.

The Fine Line Between a Legendary Comeback and an Epic Collapse

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Whether you're a New England fanatic or a Patriot hater likely determined your mood this morning.

Those cheering on Brady and the boys will likely spend the entire day re-living the Pats' epic comeback against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51 last night. Down 28-3, New England scored 31 unanswered points from the 2-minute mark of the third quarter on to capture a 34-28 overtime victory.

The game was historic for a number of reasons, most notably that Tom Brady both broke the single-game Super Bowl passing record, and captured a record-setting fifth Super Bowl title and fourth Super Bowl MVP. It was also the first overtime game in Super Bowl history.

In the process, Brady bounced back from an opening three quarters of getting beaten and bruised (and let's be honest, looking frazzled while missing some WIDE OPEN receivers), to find his usual flawless form, and deliver pinpoint passes on the final five drives of the game.

But the moments Pats fans are likely re-living the most are Julian Edelman's ABSURD catch in traffic, and James White's game-winning touchdown run. Both plays will no doubt become a part of Super Bowl lore, next to recent moments like Tyree's helmet catch, Holmes' end zone snag and Butler's goal line interception.

OH MY GOD, JULIAN EDELMAN! #SB51 #Patriots https://t.co/YtvHwsaCbT

— NFL (@NFL) February 6, 2017

Of course, the other side of that coin is the collapse of the Atlanta Falcons.

NFL Week 16 Primer (With Picks): Losers Leave Town

It's been a down year for the Falcons and NFC South as a whole, but a win in New Orleans this week would lock up a season sweep of the Saints and, likely, a home playoff game for Atlanta.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Atlanta at New Orleans. Baltimore at Houston. Kansas City at Pittsburgh. Indianapolis at Dallas. Seattle at Arizona. Denver at Cincinnati

All six of those games hold a tremendous amount of importance regarding either playoff berths or playoff seedings. The winner of the first will almost certainly win the NFC South. The loser of the second game will almost certainly miss the playoffs (and if the loser is Houston, they will). The loser of the third receives a shotgun-sized hole to their playoff hopes. The loser of the fourth almost certainly loses out on the No. 3 seed in their conference. The winner of the fifth will take the NFC West and a first-round bye along with it. And the winner of the sixth will set themselves up nicely for a first-round bye in the AFC bracket.

Let's not mess around. Let's get straight to the picks. Also because I'm 20-9-3 over the last two weeks and can see Joe in my sights.

-Jeremy

Underdog Update:
Last Week: 7-7-2
Season: 108-112-5
Home Dogs, Last Week: 1-4
Home Dogs, Season: 29-36-1

Last Minute Fantasy Start'ems and Sit'ems: Week 15

Fantasy owners have patiently awaited the return of Josh Gordon for their postseason runs, but should you start him this week against a strong Bengals pass defense?

 By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

By now, your fantasy league has no doubt entered the postseason, where roster decisions are amplified in an elimination setting.

Whether your league does its playoffs in a one or two-week format, even the best fantasy player is just a few poor starts or sits away from elimination, no matter how solid your team has been all year.

With injuries, teams fighting for NFL playoff spots, guys playing for contracts and other teams that have flat-out given up, there's a ton to take into account when choosing a starter this week.

Obviously, you start your studs. As the saying goes, you "dance with the girl you brought to the prom," so now is not the time to bench DeMarco Murray in favor of a guy with a better matchup. But, for all those guys on the fringe, here are your playoff start'ems and sit'ems.

Football Weekend Roundup: Good, Bad, and Ugly

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Every week, editors Jeremy Conlin and Joe Parello bring you the good, the bad and the ugly from the pro and college football weekend that was.

The Good

Oregon

They picked up the most impressive win of the college football weekend and looked rather convincing doing it, especially in the second half. People might knock it because it was against a Big Ten team (more on them later), but Michigan State will, in all likelihood, blow through the rest of their schedule undefeated and be a good bet to be the No. 4 seed in the playoff (my assumption is that a one-loss Big Ten team would get the nod over a one-loss Big XII team, and I don't see Oklahoma or Baylor running the table).

They're better known for their speed all over the field, but it was their defensive line that really made the difference in the game. After being unable to get off the field on third down for most of the first half, the Oregon front four stepped up in the second half and got consistent pressure on Connor Cook, which spurred a 28-0 run to end the game.

Oregon moved up to No. 2 in the AP Poll, and now holds the second-most first-place votes in the Coaches' Poll (although they're still only in fourth, behind Alabama and Oklahoma). It would probably take a loss from one of the teams above them for the Ducks to leapfrog anyone, but both Alabama certainly has a tougher schedule ahead of them - Oregon has clear sailing until October 11, when they play at UCLA, and their only other real test comes at home - they host Stanford November 1. Meanwhile, Alabama has to play four currently ranked teams, two on the road (at No. 14 Ole Miss and at No. 10 LSU) and two at home (vs. No. 7 Texas A&M and vs. No. 5 Auburn). With so many good teams, it seems unlikely that any team in the SEC will run the table, which would mean any even one-loss team from the Pac-12 would probably make the playoff. Right now, all signs point to Oregon.

-JC

Weekend Football Roundup - The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Plenty of QBs put up huge numbers this weekend, but perhaps nobody scored a bigger win than Andrew Luck in Indy's come-from-behind victory over Seattle.

 By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Every Tuesday during football season, editors Jeremy and Joe will bring you the good, the bad and the ugly from the college and pro football weekend that was.

The Good

Quarterbacks in Losing Efforts

Among quarterbacks not named Peyton Manning, there's a strong argument to be made that the three best performances from quarterbacks in Week 5 came from losing teams. Manning's counterpart, the tragic figure of Tony Romo, threw for over 500 yards at an obscene clip of 14.1 yards per attempt. He added five touchdown passes (and one ill-timed interception that was more bad luck than bad football) and some of the most precise throws seen all season. Joining Romo among the losers was Jay Cutler (24-33, 358 yards, 2 TDs, 128.1 Passer Rating), who out-dueled his more-acclaimed opponent in Drew Brees (29-35, 288 yards, 2 TDs, 120.0 Rating), and Matt Ryan, who had an exemplary performance on Monday night, completing 36 of 45 passes for 319 yards and two scores, including a late touchdown drive that included two 4th-down conversions to take a 28-27 lead that was eventually squandered by a porous Atlanta defense.

-JC