Friday, October 16, 2015

NFL Week 6 Primer (With Picks): Just The Picks, Ma'am

Von Miller and Denver's league-best pass rush will face off with suddenly red-hot Josh McCown and Cleveland's prolific passing offense.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Around 2:00 a.m. Thursday night/Friday morning, I (Jeremy) forgot that I hadn't written the picks column yet. I desperately wanted to sleep, so we're skipping all the bells and whistles and getting straight to it.

Here Are The Picks We Agree On (Home Teams in CAPS)

Atlanta (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Somehow we both saw this coming and didn't do anything about it. We both feel stupid.

Denver (-4.5) over CLEVELAND

JC: Josh McCown has been low-key on fire of late (385 yards per game over his last three, 6-1 TD-INT ratio), but Denver's defense has shut down everyone that's been put in front of them. Eventually, the Broncos offense is going to heat up, and when they do, they'll win big.

JP: Dear God, Cleveland's offense against Denver's defense is the marquee matchup of the week! 

Cincinnati (-3.5) over BUFFALO

JC: I was leaning Buffalo until Tyrod Taylor's health was called into question, and that was that.

JP: Hard to bet against Cincinnati with the way Andy Dalton is playing. Of course, the first three quarters of last week weren't pretty.

MINNESOTA (-4) over Kansas City

JC: Kansas City couldn't do anything right before, and now they don't have Jamaal Charles.

JP: Both the Chiefs and my fantasy team were unofficially eliminated from playoff contention with Charles' injury. Though, I have to say, in the case of Kansas City, they probably weren't going anywhere anyway.

JACKSONVILLE (-1) over Houston

JC: There continues to be some type of ongoing practical joke where people pretend that Houston is still good. They shouldn't be favored over anyone.

JP: But it doesn't make sense. Houston SHOULD be better than this with all the talent they have on defense, and the weapons they have on offense. No depth or quarterback will kill you though, and Blake Bortles is quietly lighting it up.

Washington (+6) over NEW YORK JETS

JC: Washington's defense is actually pretty good, so that could keep them close against Ryan Fitzpatrick.

JP: Washington is my leading candidate for "best bad team." They have a top-flight defense, can rush the passer and can run the ball. Now, they have no quarterback or viable weapons on the outside, and turn it over at the worst possible times (ie, last week in overtime), but they should be able to play with New York.

Arizona (-4) over PITTSBURGH

JC: The feel-good Pittsburgh not-sucking-without-Roethlisberger trend ends this week.

JP: I don't know if anyone ever "felt good" about the dog fighting backup relieving the accused rapist starter, but I agree. Pittsburgh should have lost by three scores to San Diego, and actually played worse than Vick's starting debut against Baltimore (though they managed to lose that game). The tape is out on Vick, he isn't comfortable enough in this offense yet to read anything, and his arm strength and legs are only good for one or two plays a game.

The Steelers will need more than that against a very good Arizona team.

TENNESSEE (-1.5) over Miami

JC: Until I see Miami do literally anything correctly, I'll pass.

JP: Mariota already > Tannehill.

Carolina (+7) over SEATTLE

JC: So, uh, Carolina is undefeated, and Seattle has blown three fourth-quarter leads (and came close to blowing a fourth). Somehow Seattle is giving a touchdown.

JP: Yeah, this spread makes no sense to me. It's literally the most nonsensical spread since Atlanta only giving 3.5 to the crappy Sain... Oh boy.

San Diego (+10.5) over GREEN BAY

JC: I have a suspicion that San Diego is better than they seem, and their performance solely depends on whether or not they can protect Phil Rivers in any given game. Given Green Bay's pass rush, that might be a tall order here, but double-digits seems too much.

JP: Like I said above, the Chargers dominated Pittsburgh on Monday Night, and you have to be impressed with the way Rivers has played, despite injuries all along his offensive line. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both have sneaky good pass rushes, and Rivers held up well enough to put his team in position to win, so I don't see why they can't stay within 10 of the Pack.

New England (-10) over INDIANAPOLIS

JC: In the last three meetings, the Patriots have outscored the Colts 130-49.

JP: I love how all week Patriots fans on talk radio have been saying that "Brady will be out for blood," and, "I can only imagine what's going on in Tom's head right now..." I don't buy into any of that, but New England is a way better team at this point.

New York Giants (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA

JC: I just want that half-point.

JP: And I think the Giants are just better, but in this division, who knows?

The Picks We Disagree On (Home Teams Still In CAPS)

JC: DETROIT (-3) over Chicago

Detroit is probably the best 0-5 team in history. Yeah, they got housed by the Cardinals, but their other four games could have easily gone the other way with a few lucky bounces.

JP: Chicago (+3) over DETROIT

I don't know man, the Bears won outright on the road against the crappy Chiefs. I'll wager that with Cutler back and Forte running (and catching) wild, Chicago can keep this thing within a field goal or win.

JC: SAN FRANCISCO (+2) over Baltimore

Both of these teams suck but at least one of them didn't give up 450 passing yards to Josh McCown last week.

JP: Baltimore (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO

Well, at least we're disagreeing on the two worst games of the week.

Jeremy's Record:
Last Week: 6-7-1
Season: 43-31-3
Last Week's Disagreements: 2-2-1
Season's Disagreements: 13-9-1

Joe's Record:
Last Week: 6-7-1
Season: 39-35-3
Last Week's Disagreements: 2-2-1
Season's Disagreements: 9-13-1

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