Wednesday, August 10, 2016

It Ain't Over, But The Map Looks Bleak for Trump

By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

"Trump can say all the crazy things he wants, and he won't lose any votes!"

That's a line I hear all the time, and up until about two weeks ago, I believed it.

But the Republican Presidential nominee has gone off the rails lately, most recently implying that 2nd Amendment enthusiasts should shoot Hillary Clinton. That coming after a week-long feud with the Gold Star family of a fallen soldier, a rally where he kicked out a baby, an interview where he showed he didn't know Russia was already in Ukraine, and a different interview where he said women who are victims of sexual harassment should just find other jobs.

Oh, and former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough said on his MSNBC show "Morning Joe" that a national security expert he knew met with Trump, and that Trump asked three times why we don't use nuclear weapons.

So, is Trump still Teflon? And, is he bringing new voters into the fold for Republicans?

Welp, the latest polling map says no.

2016 Polling Map on Left, 2012 Electoral Map on Right
Click to enlarge
Ed. Note: Our polling map is courtesy of RealClearPolitics, with states colored in by the way they are "leaning," according to RCP's poll averages.

Compared to the Obama/Romney map of 2012 (the Obamney map?), Trump is already peeing away any chance of turning Pennsylvania red (a prospect that once scared the life out of Democrats, and looked like his clearest path to the White House), and somehow Georgia, North Carolina and Missouri are "battleground states" now (Clinton holds sight leads in GA and NC, though within the margin of error). Stunningly, Texas, Mississippi, Indiana and Utah are now only soft red. What the hell is happening?!?!

Polls also show Trump trailing slightly in "toss up states" Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Nevada, so it looks like America may FINALLY be growing weary of his word vomit. If most of the polling holds, a Trump loss in Florida means it's over, but even if he does somehow win a state with a sizable Latino population, he'd still have to turn things around in the Mid-Atlantic, upper South and Appalachia, along with winning almost every toss up in the Midwest.

The Rust Belt and Florida once looked like a clear path to victory for Trump, but the comic book villain now trails by 9 points in Pennsylvania, 7 points in Michigan and 3 points in Ohio. His appeal to non-college educated white voters and Evangelical Christians (for some reason) is undeniable, but his total lack of appeal to minorities and women is killing him in cities across the Midwest, and it's even opened the map up a bit for the Democrats to score some wins in the South.

It once looked like Trump might be able to score independents and voters looking for radical change to make up for his lack of polish, but right now people are jumping off the Trump train in bunches. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, but looking at the map, it's hard to see Trump winning this election, and if he doesn't begin focusing his message, reaching out to new voters and avoiding offensive and asinine statements, this could be a landslide.

Well, as much of a landslide as possible in our current polarized political environment. 

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