Sunday, February 5, 2017

Your Last-Minute Super Bowl Betting Guide

Many of our prop bets revolve around these two happy fellas.
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)

Holy cow, it's Super Bowl Sunday! Man, that really snuck up on us.

You see, after doing diligent and detailed previews of every NFL week during the regular season, and breaking down all the playoff games, we're way behind this week. Yeah, I know we even had a whole week off, but Jeremy recently had surgery (he's good, though a little tired, thanks for asking), and Joe's brain was drained from National Signing Day Wednesday.

You can check out all his coverage of NSD here, by the way.

So, we're not going to be able to break this game down every which way like we have, but since we both aspire to be degenerate gamblers, we're going to give you our picks for some of the most interesting bets you can make tonight.

All of our exotics prop bet odds are provided by OddsShark.

Let's get this going.

The Game

New England Patriots (-3) vs Atlanta Falcons (+3)

Jeremy: New England

My pick really doesn't have much to do with football. I'm taking New England because incidences of laparoscopic cholecystectomy are higher in Boston than they are in Atlanta.

For those of you wondering, a laparoscopic cholecystectomy is when a doctor takes a knife and stabs you in the belly four times and then inflates you with carbon dioxide and then shoves a camera through one of the stab-holes and then cuts out your gall bladder and sucks it out with a vacuum. Or something.

For those of you still wondering - that happened to me this past Tuesday. I'm doing just fine. The painkillers they gave me are pretty strong.

If you're looking for a football reason, it's that the Patriots have been the best team in the league all season, and the Falcons are too much of a question mark in some pretty important areas (run defense, pass protection). Over the last decade or so, teams haven't beat the Patriots without getting a ton of pressure on Tom Brady without blitzing. Atlanta doesn't strike me as a team with a dominant defensive front that can control the game like some of the teams that have taken New England down in past years (Denver, Baltimore, the Jets and Giants). The last time the Patriots lost a high-scoring shootout in the playoffs was literally a decade ago - they lost 38-34 to Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game in January 2007. In fact, that's the only Patriots playoff game with Brady and Belichick in which the Patriots have scored more than 21 points, and lost. If you're betting on Atlanta in this game, you're betting on their ability to hold New England to a point total that only Denver was able to hold them to this season. I don't see that as particularly likely.

Joe: Atlanta

First of all, I need to disagree with Jeremy to catch him in our picks challenge, so let's get that out of the way. While I don't really see how Atlanta is going to slow down New England's offense, I do believe this offense can score on anybody, and with an extra week of rest for Julio Jones, I full expect Atlanta to hang around in what could become a shootout.

Do I think they'll win straight up? Eh, I haven't talked myself into that, but New England's Super Bowls are always close (they've won four Super Bowls by a combined 13 points, and lost two by a combined 7), so I feel like this line is just about right.

Will Any Player on Either Team Be Seen Kneeling During the National Anthem?

Yes +250
No -400

Jeremy: No

Has anyone from Atlanta done it so far this season? If they haven't, then this is an easy no. Nobody is going to do it for the first time at the Super Bowl. And nobody is going to do it for New England, because Belichick runs that ship pretty tight.

Joe: No

No is the obvious pick, because Belichick is a dictator, so nobody on his team will do it, and I don't believe any Falcons took a knee during the anthem this year. The wild card here, in my eyes, is Martellus Bennett, who is very outspoken and entertaining, and already hinted that he'd skip a White House visit if the Patriots win, mostly because he hates Donald Trump.

Since Bill, Brady and the Krafts love Trump so much, maybe Bennett makes a big statement by taking a knee? Nah, probably not gonna happen, but if anyone on New England is gonna do it…

What Will Be Higher on Super Bowl Sunday?-

Tom Brady's rushing yards total +170
Donald Trump's Interview with Bill O'Reilly in Minutes -250

Jeremy: Brady

For no reason whatsoever, I'm predicting a 11-yard scamper on a 3rd-and-15 out of Brady, sometime in the middle of the third quarter. Throw in a few sneaks and Brady will be able to cover this spread easily. 

Joe: Trump/O'Reilly

I'm going with the upset pick. I have no doubt that Brady will plow ahead for at least two of his patented QB sneaks on 3rd and 1, but how many yards does he get beyond that? Maybe two. Three? Either way, I've got him pegged at five yards rushing max, and I think Trump and O'Reilly go at least seven minutes, since Trump is super mad at the media, the courts, and that stupid Constitution thing.

Will The Word "Lacrosse" be Said During the Broadcast?

Yes -250
No +170

Jeremy: Yes

Only because it's easy for Joe Buck to bet on himself here. He puts down $500,000 and just says "lacrosse" at the top of the broadcast, with no reference to any player who may or may not have previously played lacrosse. 

Joe: Yes

Of course. Have you watched the Patriots lately?

Will J.J. Watt's Name be Mentioned During the Broadcast

Yes +250
No -400

Jeremy: No

Because why would they? He doesn't even have a discount double-check commercial. 

Joe: Yes

No way they talk about this Super Bowl, in Houston, without saying "and of course, the hometown Texans might have been here, if not for J.J. Watt's injury."

It's totally not true, because J.J. Watt doesn't play quarterback, but it will be said nonetheless.

Will "Houston We Have a Problem" Be Said During the Broadcast?

Yes +250
No -400

Jeremy: No

Does it have to be said? I can't see Joe Buck saying it. Maybe Troy Aikman, but probably not. I could definitely see it as a graphic. But does that count?

Joe: Yes


How Many Times Will "Gronk" or "Gronkowski" be Said During the Broadcast?

Over 3 -120
Under 3 -120

Jeremy: Over 3

He's going to be in a luxury box with every stripper west of the Mississippi. It's going to catch the eye. You can't see it and not mention it. It's just good TV. 

Joe: Over 3

This is a sucker bet either way, but every time the announcers are talking about Tom Brady, they're gonna mention how he's here without Gronk, and every time Bennett makes a catch, Gronk will come up as well. And every time Hogan makes a catch. And every time somebody other than Edelman makes a catch. Yeah, this is happening.

Will a Player Other than Tom Brady or Matt Ryan Attempt a Pass?

Yes +250
No -400

Jeremy: No

Because I hate fun. 

Joe: Yes

I love this bet, because I have great odds and it can happen a bunch of ways. First of all, there's the obvious trick play potential, but then there's also the potential for an injury, or if the game becomes a blowout. I'm leaning toward trick play, and it will obviously be a WR pass from Julian Edelman to Chris Hogan which will cause every white guy in New England to lose his freaking' mind.

Will There Be a Flea Flicker Attempted in the Game?

Yes +400
No -700

Jeremy: No

Again, I hate fun. 

Joe: No

The Pats busted out the flea flicker against Pittsburgh, so I think the WR or RB pass is more likely this week. Plus, I don't think either team will go toward a more slow developing play given that A. Atlanta's Vic Beasley is coming for Brady and B. Atlanta's defense isn't that good, and can be beaten with quick hitters.

Which Team Will Have More Dropped Passes?

Patriots -130
Falcons -110

Jeremy: Atlanta

This might be the only case where nerves might lead to a case of the dropsies. The Patriots have all been here before (or, if they haven't, they can pretend they have because they're suddenly wearing a New England jersey). Atlanta's receivers might drop a few. 

Joe: New England

Each of these teams had exactly 11 drops all season long, which is fantastic (tied for 3rd best in the league), but I know all the money is coming in on New England, since their receivers are white, and everyone thinks white receivers are slow, but have good hands.

Just to protest that thought process, I'm taking New England.

How Many Times will "Deflate" or "Deflategate" be Said During the Broadcast?

Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120

Jeremy: Under

For all of our sakes, let's hope it goes under. I may charge the television and attack it if this goes over. 

Joe: Over

Oh, way over.

Will Either Brady or Ryan Record 415+ Passing Yards to Break the Super Bowl Record?

Yes +400
No -700

Jeremy: No

I keep telling you guys - I hate fun. 

Joe: No

Nah. The Patriots' secondary is good enough to at least hold Ryan under 400, and Brady won't have to throw that much against Atlanta's D.

If the Patriots Win, Will Brady, Belichick or Kraft be Seen Shaking Roger Goodell's Hand on TV?

Yes -175
No +135

Jeremy: Yes

If you put money on this, you need to start going to a few meetings. 

Joe: Yes

Oh yeah, and with a huge $#!t eating grin on their face.

Will Both Teams Combine for 76+ Points to Break the Super Bowl Record?

Yes +550
No -1000

Jeremy: No

I. Hate. Fun. 

Joe: Yes

I mean, I doubt it will actually happen, but if you're giving me +550 on it, and on the other side I have to bet $1,000 just to earn a hundred bucks, this is clearly the better bet.

Who Will be Mentioned First After the Kickoff on the Broadcast?

Dan Quinn -120
Bill Belichick -120

Jeremy: Belichick

This is another one of those "don't bet on this under any circumstances" lines. You're giving 120% vig either way, and it's a total coin flip. There's literally no rhyme or reason as to why one would be said before the other than you can predict in any meaningful way. 

Joe: Quinn

Hear me out. The Patriots usually elect to defer, which would mean the first guy mentioned after kickoff will likely be Matt Ryan, and they'll probably mention how he's finally gotten over the hump with the help of coach Dan Quinn.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP Mention First After He's Presented with the Trophy?

Team/Teammates +150
God +225
None of the Above +250
Family +900
Coach +1000
Owner +1000
Donald Trump +3300

Jeremy: Coach

This seems like good value, doesn't it? Don't half of all post-game interviews start with "The coaches put together a great game plan and...."

Joe: God

Oh man, I'm loving those Donald Trump odds, because I'm just imagining Brady giving Goodell and "f-you" look, then thanking the Donald as he holds the MVP trophy. But, I think God is a pretty solid bet here. Football is uber Christian.

Who Will Donald Trump Pick to Win the Game?

Patriots -1000
Falcons +550

Jeremy: Patriots

Because the Patriots are better and everyone should be picking the Patriots

Joe: Patriots

The oddsmakers are trying to encourage SOME action on the Falcons here, but there's no way Donny boy picks against New England.

How Many Times Will "Trump" be Said During the Broadcast?

Over 1.5 EVEN
Under 1.5 -140

Jeremy: Under

I think Joe Buck knows enough to just leave this alone. Unless Trump shows up, like, at the game. Which, now that I think about it, wouldn't be that weird for him. I'm still going under though. 

Joe: Over

Double ugh.

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