All The Things I Was Wrong About In Round 1

Jeff Teague almost led the Hawks over the Pacers. I never saw it coming.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

The first round of the playoffs is supposed to be the easiest to predict, right?

So much for that idea.

Of the eight series, I only picked the correct winner in five of them, and in four of those five series, I predicted them to end in four or five games, when in fact they went to seven. The only series I nailed exactly was Miami over Charlotte in a sweep. Everything else I was moderately to incredibly wrong about (For all of my complete picks, with the case for each team to win the series, check the sidebar to the right). Here’s where I messed up:

NBA Quarter Pole Power Poll (Part II)

Damian Lillard has the Portland Trail Blazers playing like title contenders.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

In case you missed Part I yesterday, you can find it here. In it, we covered teams ranked No. 30 through No. 17. In Part II, we hit the best 16 teams in the league right now.

Western Wanderers

16. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are 10-11 despite seeing just 135 completely ineffectual minutes from Steve Nash and largely substandard play from Pau Gasol. That's a [expletive deleted] miracle.

They have five players shooting 39% or better from three, and they're launching them like it's going out of style. Their entire offense is predicated around whipping the ball around the perimeter until someone is open for three. If that doesn't work, Nick Young careens into the lane and misses a 360 reverse layup. There's absolutely no reason this offense should work, and yet they win games. Now that Kobe's back, this might be a playoff team.

15. Memphis Grizzlies

The offense is still not very good, which is to be expected. It's just too hard to manufacture space when you don't have reliable shooters. That spacing will become even more strained with Quincy Pondexter possibly out for the season with a stress fracture in his foot.

The concern going forward, however, is how bad the defense has been. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and it's not like it's because Marc Gasol is out with injury - in the 447 minutes he's played, Memphis has a Defensive Rating of 103.8. Without him (571 minutes), it's 104.2. One major problem has been their three-point defense - after finishing 2nd in Opponents 3-PT% last season, that ranking has plummeted to 23rd this year.

The Way-Too-Long NBA Preview (Part I)

Dwight Howard has Houston thinking Championship.

By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin)

NBA season is right around the corner. Over the last two weeks, I've offered a pessimistic NBA preview (in three parts), and an optimistic NBA preview (also in three parts). This is the realistic NBA preview. In some instances, this will be a (paraphrased) repeat of what I said was the team's worst-case scenario; for others, a repeat of what I said was the team's best-case scenario. For others still, a totally new angle on what the season will be like.

In the interest of making things as confusing as possible, I've arranged the teams in random order (except for the teams I saved for last in today's Part I and tomorrow's Part II, but you'll get to that later). Do not try to discern a pattern for why a team is placed where - you won't find one. In each section, I've listed the team's record from last season, and two Vegas lines - their over/under for wins this season, and their odds to win the NBA title. You know, in case you live in a place where gambling is legal. 

Brooklyn Nets
2013 Record: 49-33
Over/Under Wins: 52.5
Odds to Win Championship: 10/1

Scouting Report: This team is going to be a lot like the 2010 Celtics, and not only because they prominently feature Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. It’s a team of veteran guys that realizes they don’t need to kick ass and take names on all 82 nights – they’re perfectly aware that they can go through the motions for days or even weeks at a time and still comfortably make the playoffs. All that really matters for them is if they can identify a clear rotation that will work come playoff time.