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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
My Dad and Sports
By Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
Ed. Note- This story was originally published in September 20th, 2019, but Joe has republished it so that it appears at the top of the website.
My dad passed away Thursday night.
We all grieve in different ways, and I think did all the usual things, but honestly, after a few hours, I just wanted to zone out and watch a bad football game.
Luckily, the Jags and Titans obliged me, but the game also reminded of all the sports memories I had with my father.
I remembered walking two miles from our parking spot to Super Bowl XXIX in Miami, and making him buy me an Arepa from a guy in a cart along the way. I remembered walking across a bridge in Pittsburgh with him when I was in 3rd grade, after we watched the Steelers win the AFC Championship, singing with a bunch of drunk dudes that the Steelers were finally going back to the Super Bowl.
I also remembered that I had this site, and that writing, though not my profession anymore, has always been cathartic. So, here we go...
My Dad was the Best/Worst Sports Fan
Maybe it's because he grew up poor in the Homewood neighborhood of Pittsburgh, but my dad never really mentioned his youth sports heroes, and never took pro sports particularly seriously.
He was 19 when Bill Mazeroski homered in the bottom of the 9th to win the Pirates the World Series against the Yankees, but he never even mentioned to me if he watched or listened to the game, though he did have memories of my grandmother screaming when Bruno Sammartino was in trouble against some evil, non-Italian, wrestler.
Still, he would always talk fondly about the 1970s Steelers teams from his 30s, most notably his favorite players, Mel Blount and Donnie Shell, the latter of which he still couldn't believe wasn't in the Hall of Fame.
He also thought the Steelers should have permanently benched Terry Bradshaw for Joe Gilliam, so he definitely had some Hot Sports Takes™ in his day.
My dad is the reason I root for the Steelers. I was born in Pittsburgh, but we moved to South Florida when I was still a baby. I remember the Steel City as a tough, gritty, smoggy place, where we would go to visit my grandparents, and my dad would occasionally take me to see the Steelers or the Pirates play in the old Three Rivers Stadium, or the Penguins skate in the old Civic Center.
The city made me think of my parents as kids, and the toughness they had to have as the son and daughter of immigrants to make it in this country the way they did. I always liked that identity, though it was never really mine, so I pasted it onto Pittsburgh's pro sports teams.
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
We Need Sports Things to Talk About, So Let's Gamble on Football (if there is football)
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| In the middle of a contract dispute with the Cowboys, surely nobody would bet on Dak Prescott to win the MVP, would they? |
While there are certainly more important things happening now than a lack of sports, crawling along in a sports-less desert has made many fans thirsty for ANYTHING to argue about.
Look no further than ESPN's documentary series "The Last Dance," chronicling Michael Jordan's final season (and really, entire career) with the Chicago Bulls. A documentary like this would normally be very popular anyway, but it has absolutely taken over the sports social media world, and drawn millions of viewers each week.
Similarly, the WNBA and NFL Draft both had their best years, in terms of viewership, in their history, and several notable players have mainstream news made waves by changing squads during NFL free agency (maybe you've heard of that Brady guy?).
The dust has not totally settled, but with the draft complete, and the NFL seemingly intent on playing games without interruption, now seems like a perfect time to start some more debates and look at a few NFL futures bets.
Odds for the Super Bowl, MVP and division winners have been updated, and you can find all that information here, along with other NFL related news. There will be more updates up until NFL starts so take the current odds with a grain of salt. For the sake of this blog, I'm going to take a look at my favorite, and least favorite picks to win divisions, and the MVP.
So, which bets are my Stone Cold Locks of The Quarantine? Find out below.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
If MIAA Stars Entered the NFL Draft: 2019 Edition
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| Everett's Mike Sainristil has all the tools to be the top pick in our mock draft. |
We may have (mostly) shut down operations here at SuiteSports, but dammit, I'm not gonna end this school year without putting out our fun, but mostly pointless blog about where the best players in the MIAA would be selected, were they available in this week's NFL Draft.
If you need to get caught up, you can find our 2017 MIAA/NFL Draft here, and our 2018 edition here.
A reminder of the rules for players being taken in our MIAA/NFL Draft:
1. The player must be a senior. I know college juniors (and redshirt sophomores) can be taken in the real NFL Draft, but that's not how our draft works.
2. The player can be headed to prep school next year. Since we don't include ISL or other Prep School players in our draft, guys who are finishing up their MIAA careers and graduating from an MIAA school get the chance to be drafted.
Friday, February 1, 2019
Super Bowl LIII Preview: A Rematch, Young vs. Old, Two Lucky Teams and Gambling!
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
It's Super Bowl week, and we have some thoughts...
I.
This year's Super Bowl will be 17 years to the day since the Patriots at Rams first met in the Super Bowl - the first Brady/Belichick championship, when the Patriots put themselves on the map with what was, and still is, the biggest upset in the history of the Super Bowl.
This game can't quite be considered a rematch, given that the only holdovers from that game are Brady, Belichick, and New England offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. That's not exactly surprising, considering back in 2002, the No. 1 movie in the US Box Office was a movie starring a man that hasn't been the governor of California for eight years. It's been a while.
Furthermore, one of the teams has moved cities after spending the overwhelming majority of the last decade and a half as one of the cellar dwellers of its conference, while the other team went from the plucky underdog that happened to almost accidentally win a Super Bowl, to a team that everyone south and west of 42N73W openly despises. Like I said, it's been a while.
All that being said, it is the Rams against the Patriots, and you're going to see about 76 hours of coverage about the fact that these two franchises played against each other 17 years ago. At the very least, this game could serve as a bookend to the start of this Patriots' dynasty. Yes, Tom Brady said in an interview that there's zero chance that this will be his last game, but can't you imagine a scenario where the Patriots win this game 40-17 and Tom Brady rides off into the sunset? At the very least, it's possible.
Saturday, January 19, 2019
NFL Conference Championship Primer (With Picks): Top Seeds Advance
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| Patrick Mahomes has enjoyed a magical first year starting for Kansas City, but come on. He isn't gonna beat Tom Freakin' Brady in the AFC Championship Game, is he?... Is he? |
Well, last weekend went according to script.
All four home teams won. Three of them covered. Two of them covered comfortably.
Joe went 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread (picking the Colts to cover against Kansas City). Jeremy went 3-1 straight up (missing that same KC-Indy game), 2-2 against the spread (also missing on New Orleans), bringing our records for this postseason to 5-3 (5-3) for Jeremy and 5-3 (7-1) for Joe.
[It remains incredibly perplexing that Joe went 1-3 straight up in the Wild Card round but somehow went 4-0 against the spread.]
These four teams advancing to this round seems appropriate. It really seems like these four teams were just better than everyone else this year, kind of like that year where all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament (the Derrick Rose on Memphis, Tyler Hansbrough on North Carolina, Kevin Love on UCLA, Mario Chalmers & Co. on Kansas year). I suppose you can make an argument that Chicago and the Chargers were in that conversation as well, but based on how those teams played in the playoffs, probably not.
Both of the games this weekend are rematches. In the AFC, this week's road team won the first matchup, but they won it at home. In the NFC, this week's home team won the first tilt, and they're at home here again (in large part because of that win). Both games represent the old vs. the new(ish).
The Saints and Patriots represent The Old Guard of their respective conferences - coaches that have been with the organization for over a decade; former Super Bowl champions; future Hall of Fame quarterbacks that attended college in a different century. The Chiefs and Rams are the new. Young, vibrant quarterbacks with upside to potentially match or exceed the ability of their older counterparts; teams that haven't reached the Super Bowl in decades; teams itching to make a name for themselves.
Let's not waste any more time.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX)
Opening Line: Saints by 3.5
Current Line: Saints by 3
By The Numbers:
Los Angeles:
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Road; 7-7-2 Against the Spread, 4-4 Road
Average Score: 32.9 (2nd) - 24.0 (20th)
Average Scoring Margin: +8.9 (3rd); 10.9 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +24.6% Offense (1st), +0.8% Defense (18th), -0.2% Special Teams (17th); +23.7% Overall (2nd)
New Orleans:
Record: 13-3 Overall, 6-2 Home; 10-6 Against the Spread, 4-4 Home
Average Score: 31.5 (3rd) - 22.1 (14th)
Average Scoring Margin: +9.4 (1st); 11.2 "Expected" Wins
DVOA: +15.9% Offense (4th), -3.1% Defense (11th), +1.7% Special Teams (9th); +20.7% Overall (4th)
Friday, January 11, 2019
NFL Divisional Weekend Primer (With Picks): The Favorites Arrive
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| Is this the year Philip Rivers and the Chargers finally break through to the Super Bowl? And, so, like, are all the people in San Diego rooting for them? |
In the divisional weekend, we saw a surprise three road teams win, and almost saw a road sweep. In fact, all four road teams covered the spread (the Cowboys closed favored by two and a half). Four especially close games benefited those of us who bet on underdogs, which was both of us. Joe went just 1-3 straight up (correctly picking Indianapolis), but somehow ended up 4-0 against the spread. Jeremy was 2-2 straight up (hitting both AFC games, missing both NFC games), and went 3-1 against the spread (only Chicago let him down).
This season really saw the cream rise to the top, however, so we're probably in store for a few more lopsided games this weekend. Last week's biggest line was Chicago favored by six; both NFC games opened with higher lines, and both AFC lines are larger than any of the other lines from last weekend.
As with last weekend, we'll dive into the numbers for each team, focus on a few key players and statistical trends, and picking each game by score, which will also serve as our picks against the spread. Let's get to it.
Friday, January 4, 2019
Wild Card Weekend Primer (With Picks): Close Games Expected
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| Andrew Luck and Eric Ebron are primed to potentially pull an upset in the first game of the weekend. |
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
So, we dropped the ball a little bit.
With all of the hectic traveling and revelry around the holidays, we forgot to actually write down our picks the last two weeks and publish them in this space. In lieu of that, we just texted each other our picks and used the honor system. Joe held a six-game lead entering Week 17 and the way our picks lined up, we didn't disagree on six games. So Joe technically clinched the season win in Week 16. This is his fifth win in six years.
It was the worst showing in the six years of picking head to head for both players. Jeremy finished 115-132-9, and Joe finished 121-126-9. Cumulatively, for the six-year history, Joe holds a 20-game lead (760-722-56 to 740-742-56).
Historically, however, Jeremy has taken home the postseason crown, winning all six years picking against the spread (Joe has won two years picking playoff games heads up). So we'll see if Joe can finally take down the postseason title.
We're going a bit more in-depth for the playoff games, as we always do. In the "By the Numbers" section preceding each game, we'll list each teams DVOA ratings for the season. DVOA is a stat developed by Football Outsiders designed to measure each team on a per-play basis, adjusting for down, distance, time, and score. For example, gaining six yards on 3rd-and-5 is more valuable than gaining 11 yards on 3rd-and-12. Furthermore, it's easier to convert a 3rd-and-5 from your own 20 yard line when you're down by 28 points early in the fourth quarter than it is to convert that same 3rd-and-5 at the opponent's 10 yard line when you're down by four points with a minute remaining. DVOA adjusts for all of these things to some extent. DVOA is represented as a percentage better or worse than average, so good offenses will have positive scores and good defenses will have negative scores.
Here we go.
Friday, December 14, 2018
NFL Week 15 Primer (With Picks): Showdown of Your Heroes
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| After the craziest play of the season, the Dolphins are looking to prove they can string some wins together, while the Patriots are looking to bounce back against a desperate Pittsburgh team. |
Jeremy's Patriots and Joe's Steelers square off this week, and while we've made plans to meet up and watch the game, we're not exactly feeling that great about our respective hometown teams after this past weekend.
Both teams need the win. The Patriots need a win to be a single game behind Kansas City and the Chargers, putting them in a position to potentially steal the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC on tiebreakers. That seems especially important for them this year, considering they're 6-0 at home and 3-4 on the road, with those losses coming against the Lions, Jaguars, Titans, and Dolphins. The Steelers need a win to simply stop the bleeding - they've lost three straight and suddenly hold only a half-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North, and a half-game lead over teams like the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins for what would end up being the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. That all doesn't even include the Broncos and Browns, who are still somehow very much alive.
Jeremy picked up some ground last week, going 9-7 overall and 4-2 on disagreements (and is like, actually kinda mad about not pulling the trigger on Miami and San Francisco and Indianapolis like he wanted to). Joe dipped back below .500 on the year, but still holds a six game lead. He also took the Thursday game this week - Jeremy didn't have faith in the Chargers with the injuries that they're piling up, but they were able to pull it out anyway.
Now for the rest of the Week 15 picks (including two Saturday games!)
Friday, December 7, 2018
NFL Week 14 Primer (With Picks): One Final Power Poll
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| Todd Gurley doesn't care about covering the spread or your fantasy team, but he's got the Rams in pole position in the NFC. |
As we enter the final quarter of the NFL season, with all teams having played 75 percent of their schedule, we unleash our final regular season power poll. We've included movement since the last power poll, which came in Week 9, and we'll break down all the ins and outs and the end.
Quite Simply Not Good At Anything
32. Oakland Raiders (-1)
31. San Francisco 49ers (-2)
30. Arizona Cardinals (0)
The Nicest Truck Stop Port-o-John In All Of Rural Indiana
29. Buffalo Bills (+3)
The Generically Bad Teams
28. New York Jets (-7)
27. Detroit Lions (-4)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0)
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
24. Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
The Good Bad Teams
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Formerly Struggling Celtics Beginning to Find their Footing
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| Gordon Hayward and the Celtics are getting into rhythm, and that could be trouble for the rest of the Eastern Conference. |
The Celtics’ offense has exploded recently, posting at least 118 points in each of their last three games, all three of which were victories. Only the Celtics have a current streak of that nature in the NBA. For the franchise, Boston has accomplished the feat for the first time since March 1994.
Gordon Hayward was the most valuable player on Saturday’s 118-109 win at the Minnesota Timber-highlighters, as Hayward became the first Celtic since Kyrie Irving in 2017 to attempt double-digit free throws in one contest. Gordon’s performance off the bench was impressive, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. He became just the third reserve in NBA history to score 30 points, grab nine rebounds and dish out eight assists in a contest.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
NFL Week 13 Primer (With Picks): Hunt Out In Kansas City
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
As you've probably heard by now, the Kansas City Chiefs have released star running back Kareem Hunt after video footage of him assaulting a woman in a Cleveland hotel back in February. It's a rather staggering move by the Chiefs. The last time something like this happened - with Ray Rice in Baltimore - the player in question was coming off the worst season of his career and looked like he was probably on his way out of the league in short order anyway. It's not like Baltimore had a ton to lose by cutting him. They were 8-8 the year before, and the decision came in September, so the team had a few months to figure out their running back situation (it turns out they didn't need to, as Justin Forsett blossomed into an every-down back).
The situation in Kansas City is wildly different. By any measure, Hunt is one of the best handful of running backs in the league, and the Chiefs are in the middle of the chase for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with just five games remaining. This is a major shakeup that could end up having huge playoff or even Super Bowl implications.
It does, however, bring up some interesting questions.
For one - it's yet another instance of TMZ, and somehow not the NFL having access to video footage of an altercation involving an NFL player. Right off that bat, that's concerning. The NFL released a statement, effectively saying that they asked about the video and the hotel in question said their policy was to share it only with law enforcement. So the league has some cover there, but it's still not a great look.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
NFL Week 12 Primer (With Picks): Thanksgiving Hangover Picks
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| Are the Colts for real? Well, during Indy's four-game winning streak, Andrew Luck has completed 74 percent of his passes, with 13 TDs and 1 INT. So… Maybe? |
After much eating and drinking on Thursday and Friday and also Saturday, we just don't have much energy left to offer much insight about the state of the league. The Saints are really good, as are the Rams and Chiefs, the Cowboys seem to be making a comeback, the AFC needs to figure out who their second-best team is, and there are a lot of really bad teams in the league this year.
Here are the three storylines worth talking about over the next month or so:
1. Who is the favorite for MVP? Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes are each putting up insane numbers. The Rams have two candidates (Jared Goff and Todd Gurley) who will end up probably leeching votes from each other so neither will win, but they'll both be in the mix. After that there's a drop-off, but a late surge from someone like Phil Rivers (yes, THAT Phil Rivers - he's having a pretty remarkable season if you look at the numbers) could factor in, or if a team like the Seahawks or Cowboys or Packers or Colts suddenly rattle off six wins to end the season, you could see Russell Wilson or Ezekiel Elliot or Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck throw their hat into the ring.
Saturday, November 17, 2018
NFL Week 11 Primer (With Picks): How The League Stacks Up Against The Spread
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| Betters may not trust the Bears yet, but Khalil Mack and Co. have been among the best in the league against the spread this season. |
In the intro this week, we decided it's about time to update all of you loyal readers (Hi Mom!) (Just kidding there's no way our mothers read these) about how each team is doing against the spread so far this season.
Here's the rub: If Vegas bookmakers were perfect at their jobs, every team would finish .500 against the spread. Obviously, that doesn't happen. They under-value or over-value teams to start the year, and then adjust lines accordingly as the season progresses. So what does that mean when you look at these records? Here are two things it does NOT mean:
Friday, November 9, 2018
NFL Week 10 Primer (With Picks): Winning Streaks
@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
The Los Angeles Chargers have won five consecutive games.
After last night, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won five consecutive games.
The New England Patriots have won six consecutive games.
The Houston Texans have won six consecutive games.
The New Orleans Saints have won seven consecutive games.
Entering last weekend, the Los Angeles Rams had won eight consecutive games.
That's a lot of pretty long streaks, isn't it?
And that's not even it.
The Los Angeles Chargers have won five consecutive games.
After last night, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won five consecutive games.
The New England Patriots have won six consecutive games.
The Houston Texans have won six consecutive games.
The New Orleans Saints have won seven consecutive games.
Entering last weekend, the Los Angeles Rams had won eight consecutive games.
That's a lot of pretty long streaks, isn't it?
And that's not even it.
Friday, November 2, 2018
NFL Week 9 Primer (With Picks): Halfway Point Power Poll
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| These two guys are pretty good at quarterback-ing. |
Just like we did following Week 5, we're going to use this space to break down the league into tiers and try to make sense of where each team stands. For fun, I also included a breakdown of how much each team moved, so you can laugh about how wrong we were a month ago.
Friday, October 26, 2018
NFL Week 8 Primer (With Picks): Where Are The Good Teams?
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| Adam Thielen is undeniably good, but are the Vikings? Is anybody in the league really good outside the Top-3 or 4? Uh, we're not sure. |
How many teams in the league do you implicitly trust right now?
By our count, there's four, and only four.
The Rams, the Saints, the Chiefs, and the Patriots. That's it.
The Chargers have a decent record, but have played one of the league's easiest schedules (25th in the league according to Football Outsiders). Baltimore has the league's third-best scoring margin, but have squandered three winnable games. There's a cluster of teams in the NFC with only two losses (Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, and Green Bay), but their scoring margins still hover barely above zero and have struggled to put away bad teams (Carolina barely beat the Giants, Minnesota lost to Buffalo, the Packers let the 49ers hang around, Washington lost to the Colts).
Two of the AFC's strongest teams last year - Pittsburgh and Jacksonville - can't seem to get out of their own way and each have a unit (Pittsburgh's defense and Jacksonville's offense) that just isn't up to par for what a contending team needs.
It's only Week 8. There are usually more than just four teams that you can hang your hat on. Seven teams won 11 games or more last year. Same for 2016 and 2015. There were nine of them in both 2014 and 2013. Who are they this year? Do we think the Ravens can finish 7-2 with teams like Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Los Angeles remaining on their schedule? What about Minnesota, who still has to play New Orleans, Green Bay, New England, and Chicago twice? Pittsburgh still has to play Baltimore, Carolina, the Chargers, New England, and New Orleans. Do we want to start taking Houston seriously, now that they've won five straight and shellacked Miami on Thursday night? Or do we still not buy it after they lost to the Giants and only beat Indianapolis and Buffalo by a combined 10 points?
As we stand now, it seems like maybe we should only trust those top four teams and just lean towards the underdogs when these second-tier teams match up against each other. Underdogs are seven games over .500 on the season based on data from covers.com, so maybe the idea has some legs.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
NFL Week 7 Primer (With Picks): Just The Picks, Ma'am - Just The Picks
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| Drew Brees and the explosive Saints offense will take on Baltimore's shutdown defense in one of the biggest matchups of the weekend. |
Jeremy is tired. He's spent this week watching the Red Sox win the pennant rather than trying to come up with something interesting to write in this here preview part of the weekly picks. So we're skipping the preview. Like, basically all of it - you're reading the preview right now.
We put together a slightly more respectable week last week. We agreed on 12 picks and went 6-5-1 (a winning record!). We disagreed on just three picks last week, and Joe took home winners with the Jets and 49ers, while Jeremy won by a half-point with the Chiefs. Entering Week 7, Joe currently sits 12 games under .500, so he only needs to be one game better than a standard issue coin per week over the rest of the season (plus another single game here or there) to get back on the winning side. Jeremy has an uphill battle - he's 20 games worse than average. He's pretty embarrassed about it. Let's just get to the picks.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Plenty of Milestones in Sight for the 2018-19 Boston Celtics
By Adam Lowenstein (@StatsAdam)
The Celtics have a very similar roster to last year, but fans hope that the playoff roster rotation is vastly different from the one that fell to the Cleveland LeBroniers in the 2018 postseason.
Before looking ahead to 2018-19, let us rewind to the previous season with some team milestones. The 2017-18 Celtics allowed fewer than 10 offensive rebounds per game for the first time in franchise history.
In addition, the Celtics were the best in the league in defense. Boston allowed the second-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage in the NBA last season, and the team was strong in preventing corner 3-point attempts. Celtics’ opponents attempted just 18 percent of their 3-pointers from the corner, the best mark in the NBA last year.
Saturday, October 13, 2018
NFL Week 6 Primer (With Picks): The Best Offense Is A Good Offense
By Jeremy Conlin (@jeremy_conlin) and Joe Parello (@HerewegoJoe)
Scoring is at an all-time high in the NFL right now.
26 of the 32 teams in the league are averaging north of 20 points per game. The Bengals are averaging over 30 points per game through five weeks, a number that doesn't even land them on the podium. They currently stand fourth behind the Saints (36.0 per game), Chiefs (35.0 per game), and Rams (34.6 per game). The Saints have the 28th-ranked scoring defense yet somehow have the league's fifth-best scoring margin. We've reached a point in the league, with all the modifications to how the officials call illegal contact, pass interference, and roughing the passer, where having a great defense doesn't really matter anymore. Simply out-racing your opponent to 40 points is a perfectly legitimate way to win football games in 2018.
Last week, the Chiefs and Jaguars faced off, the league's No.1 scoring offense (entering the week) versus the league's No. 1 scoring defense (ditto). If this game were happening in the 1970s, everyone would assume Jacksonville would steamroll Kansas City (the whole "defense beats offense" thing). That's not how football works anymore, though. The pendulum has swung clearly in the direction of offenses. Kansas City won easily.
Saturday, October 6, 2018
NFL Week 5 Primer (With Picks): NFL Quarter Pole
The NFL season is one-quarter over, which sounds really depressing because it seems like it started yesterday.
Well, technically, it's not quite one-quarter over. Washington and Carolina have still only played three games because bye weeks started last week. Everyone else in the league, though, has played 25 percent of their schedule. That being the case, we figured we would run through what we've seen so far and hand out some "awards."



















